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Why my head says Wasps won't make the Premiership final - Andy Goode

Newcastle Falcons celebrate late winner against Leicester Tigers

Away wins in Premiership semi-finals are like hen’s teeth but Falcons and Wasps will be dangerous animals and it can be done.

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The away side has only won five times in 27 previous Premiership semi-finals so that tells you everything you need to know about how tough it is to win on the road at this stage of the competition.

I was part of one of those sides exactly 10 years ago yesterday and kicked the winning drop goal for Leicester at Kingsholm. We were lucky to be in the play-offs that year after Tom Varndell scored a late try against Quins to get us there and that did give us a bit of a feeling that it was a shot to nothing but, in truth, Gloucester choked and we took advantage.

We weren’t a great team that season and had Marcelo Loffreda as coach with Richard Cockerill underneath him and there was a lot of friction and disagreements between them. Cockerill was vocal all season to the players and the board with his opinion that Loffreda wasn’t the right man for the job.

Newcastle is a happy camp but there are parallels because we lucky to be there and nobody expected the Falcons to be here. Dean Richards and Dave Walder have admitted that their target was the top six.

Exeter have finished 22 points ahead of Newcastle after 22 games and eight points above Saracens in second place, so of course they are massive favourites to make it to a third straight Premiership final.

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That, and the fact that it’s their first ever Premiership semi-final, means it’s definitely a free shot for the Falcons. They’ve even said that themselves and that does make them a very dangerous animal.

Toby Flood being back at fly half makes a big difference as defeat would be a foregone conclusion if they had to go down to Sandy Park without a recognised number 10. His big game experience will be vital and the likes of Vereniki Goneva and Sinoti Sinoti can produce the unexpected so you never know but it’d be the biggest shock in Premiership semi-final history if it were to happen.

Opposite Flood will be Joe Simmonds, who is the James Ryan of the Premiership…he’s yet to lose in 13 outings in the Premiership. It was a hell of a bold call for Rob Baxter to drop Gareth Steenson, who won them the title last season, to the bench but the 21-year-old has been on fire.

He’s not just quietly slotted in either, he’s been running the show. There’s been nothing to suggest that he’ll freeze on the big stage but Deano will definitely look to target him.

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Sam Hill and Henry Slade outside him aren’t the biggest either, although they hit plenty hard enough, so I expect to see Josh Matavesi running down that number 10 channel a lot with Goneva and Sinoti coming off their wings as well.

Walder loves to attack from first phase and Joe Simmonds will find himself under a huge amount of pressure and forced to make big decisions in defence as well as attack but I don’t expect he and Exeter to choke like Gloucester did a decade ago.

There is more expectation on Wasps as they’re a couple of years further down the line than Newcastle, having made it to the play-offs for the first time for eight years in 2016 and then gone one step further last season.

And, while they won’t say it openly, the word from inside the Saracens camp is that Wasps are the one team that they are really concerned about facing because of the width they play with and their ability to attack from anywhere.

The problem for Wasps is that their defence hasn’t been befitting of a title-winning side over the course of the last six months and you really need to be on your game in that department when you travel to Allianz Park.

There’s often a stigma around Saracens regarding their style and the fact that they don’t set the world alight but they’ve scored 89 tries in the league this season. That’s 10 more than anyone else has managed.

Their game suits knockout rugby perfectly as well, whereas Wasps’ record in these winner takes all matches hasn’t been anywhere near as good in recent years. They’ve been the nearly men.

Again, the fly half battle is fascinating with Danny Cipriani capable of being the best player on the pitch by a country mile or overplaying his hand and struggling with Saracens’ line speed but Owen Farrell offering the pragmatism and consistency that you can rely on in a semi-final.

Wasps put 64 points on Sarries at Allianz Park during the Six Nations in 2016 and I’ve not doubt that will have been mentioned in the dressing room in terms of the threats they pose but it won’t be like that today and the power of the home side might just prove too much to handle.

The heart says a Wasps v Newcastle final but home advantage is crucial in Premiership semi-finals and Exeter and Saracens are the top two for a reason, so the head says it’ll be them facing off at Twickenham next weekend.

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PL 55 minutes ago
Lions Tour Aussie takes: Bigger is better, the stars who failed to fire

I find it interesting that journalists who have done nothing in rugby comment on selections & coaching like they are experts

Concussive injury’s will remove insurance cover from the game unless their is strict application of the laws designed to remove MND Parkinson’s and CTE from the game


Head on head I saw red to Adam Coleman as tackler for Irish while unconscious on a stretcher - concussions occur without twitching on the ground or the wobbly boot - I know I had maybe 20 from rugby


The officiating of last feet is non existent

The lack of effective wrap by Lions front rower & that decision had a close relationship with ordure in a toilet

A head on head tackle red for Coleman not even penalty lead to a try in a phase or 2


Powys v Evans lead to a £> 2 mill verdict against the ref personally special leveraged to Hiuse of Lords

Refs will stop reffing with no insurance then no game


About 5 years ago 4 or 5 French colts died from head hits in elite club games - that led to below sternum law - hamlets honoured in breach not observance

Last feet non existent - enforcement favour flowing rugby nor lions meat grinder forwards get momentum and puck & drive NZ Vowel noise


The UK Class Action could be very well be lost WRC will try every dirty trick in case they already used dial a neuros to argue the unarguable is law gossip


I reffed ref coached & assessed for ruffly 17 seasons


The application of laws is like a zig zag on speed

Line out laws not enforced scrums tight pulling loose down one side mirror on other side elbow pointing to ground stretch marks on jersey

Der moment the refs need to go Soec Savers

My bet unless they stop lack of intestinal fortitude game management


Yellow every time head contact or above sternum


Needs sterner GMGs material impact removed set piece caterpillar remove

Last feet to last feet + 1 m


When I reffed I kept them well apart - hated me till they got over yellow and they actually had fun & complemented me post game backs had room and pick and drive had momentum


As for intentional foul play like tackle in air auto red no replacement 100,000 fine player 250,000 club


Treble it for international 26 week suspension & it’s disappear over night

25 were scrum for dissent


Penalty all this rubbish shots at opponents after error


All the s.ite would disappear


The pathetic unsportsmanlike behaviour would lead to standards


Remember Les Boyd’s penalty re Brohman -if that is the way we treat foul play but while foul play with potential serious injury with a feather duster like we are the game is destined to no insurance following that no refs cause would you risk bankruptcy like Powys v Evans

1 Go to comments
S
Soliloquin 2 hours ago
Why New Zealand learned more from their July series than France

For Fischer, many people in France are still doubting him - it’s the first time he has a full season (31 games). Before, he was always injured at some point. He’s 27, so not the youngest, and you have a younger Boudehent or Jégou behind.

His physicality is incredible, but he didn’t prove he’s got hands. He just proved he was able to defend like a beast.

But you know, even Cros has improved his handling skills lately, so it’s never too late!

And he will play the Champions Cup with a solid Bayonne side, so let’s see!


I don’t agree with ‘only Fischer’: Brennan proved he’s a great 4/7 utility player, and Galthié likes those very much (Woki or Flament). He’s 23, playing for Toulouse with high concurrence, so the prospect is good. I rate him higher than Auradou, who had a few games in the 6 Nations.

For Depoortère, he had a more silent season than the previous one - injured at the worst moment during the Autumn Tests series - but came back strong with a Champions Cup and a solid partnership with Moefana. What could save him would be to start playing as a 12 when Moefana isn’t there, bulking up and become the new Jauzion.

But he’s 22 and an incredible talent at 13. His height makes me think he had more potential than your fan favorite Costes or the utility player that is Gailleton.


As for Montagne or Mallez, with the lack of quality in props, they could find a spot!

Especially Mallez who’s got a good spot to get behind Baille at Toulouse. Neti isn’t the youngest and hasn’t an international level.


And again, as Ugo Mola said, you never play with your best team.

So 30-32 player is more of a 38-40, so you need back-ups.

France knows very well how useful they can be during RWCs.

237 Go to comments
S
Soliloquin 2 hours ago
Why New Zealand learned more from their July series than France

Hastoy was a good prospect before the 2023 RWC, he was the fly-half who led La Rochelle to the victory in the Champions Cup final in Dublin against Leinster.

But he made it to the squad only because Ntamack got his ACL.

He played against Uruguay, which a terribly poor game by the French side, and since then he declined a bit, alongside his club.

Under the pressure of Reus and West at 10, he regained some credit at the end of the season (among all a drop at the 81st minute of a game).

He’s quite good everywhere, but not outstanding.

He doesn’t have the nerves, the defense and the tactical brain of Ntamack, the leadership and the creativity of Ramos or the exceptional attacking skills of Jalibert.


I really hope that:

-Ntamack will get his knee back. The surgery went well. He wasn’t the most elusive player in the world, but he was capable of amazing rushes like the one against NZ in 2021 or the Brennus-winning try in 2023.

-Jalibert will continue to improve his defense. He started working hard since March (after his defensive disaster against England) with a XIII specialist, and I’ve seen great moments, especially against Ntamack in the SF of the Champions Cup. It’s never too late. And it would be a great signal for Galthié.

-Hastoy will build up his partnership with Le Garrec, that La Rochelle will start a new phase with them and Niniashvili, Alldritt, Atonio, Boudehent, Jegou, Bosmorin, Bourgarit, Nowell, Wardi, Daunivucu, Kaddouri, Pacôme…

237 Go to comments
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