Africa 1 Pre-Season Odds: The Slaughter of the Sunwolves

Our stats guru Paul Neazor predicts who will flourish and who will flounder in the Africa 1 conference this Super Rugby season.

This year’s Super Rugby is confusing at the best of times. There are two Groups, including one called ‘Africa’ that features teams from Asia and South America, an extremely convoluted schedule, a new team that’s pretty much the Argentinian national team, a Japanese side that hosts its home games in Singapore, and an inexplicable lack of live animal mascots.

A full explainer is here, but to get your bearings on the competition, the main thing to focus on is the conferences. There are four of them - Australia, New Zealand, Africa 1, and Africa 2 - and the winner of each will be rewarded with home field advantage in the quarter-finals. For our pre-season odds, we decided to rank the teams in those conferences by how good they’re going to be, and where they’re likely to end up at the end of the season.

Cheetahs: TAB odds $101 to win competition, equal 15th favourite.

The odds on the Cheetahs may well shorten a bit with news that Handre Pollard is out for the season and the Bulls therefore lose their key playmaker, but they won’t shorten much and the Bloemfontein mob are still long shots to win the overall title. Being pillaged over the off-season – again – means they face the annual rebuild with fewer resources than most, and almost all the key strike players have now left. I wouldn’t underrate the Cheetahs on a game by game basis – I’m picking they’ll upset one or two more fancied teams – but they’re not in the hunt for overall honours.

After 17 weeks the Cheetahs will be: Wondering who they’ll lose in this off-season. They always lose half a team between seasons

Stormers: TAB odds $10 to win competition, 7th favourite.

The Stormers, like most of the South African sides, suffered a large post-World Cup exodus and while they’ve managed to sign some good players from within the country there are still gaps, although they’re nowhere near as big as some teams have to cover. More than any other team, the Stormers may be favoured by the new bonus point regulations – remember, this is the team that topped the regular season log a couple of years back without a single try-scoring bonus point – as they normally defend a lot better than they attack. They should be a good shot at topping their section, although they do have the tougher of the two South African pools, but beyond that … I don’t think so. Given that they’ve had several recent playoff meltdowns at home, the press will probably beat them in the quarters before their opponent even has a chance.

After 17 weeks the Stormers will be: In the playoffs because they’re the best team in the weakest group

Sunwolves: TAB odds $501 to win competition, rank outsider.

Remarkably short at 500-1, the Sunwolves are so clearly a patch-together job that there must be concerns for their survival. Unwanted by Japanese club owners, ignored by Brave Blossom test players, playing three home matches in Singapore to make the South Africans happy, appointing a coach only weeks before the season began, filling out a playing roster with ‘Who’s he?’ and ‘Never was’ names and with no structured pre-season behind them, the Sunwolves are the team everyone wants to play this season. I think they may be the first team to yak up a century in Super Rugby at some stage, and an 0-15 final record wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. Their odds really should have as many zeroes as an old Zimbabwean banknote, and they have as much chance of success.

After 17 weeks the Sunwolves will be: Glad it’s over

Bulls: TAB odds $18 to win competition, 11th favourite.

That the Bulls are so short despite a moderate 2015 season and a whopping exodus of talent, mainly to Europe, in the off-season says a lot for the strength of their conference. This Bulls team is nothing like the side that won three titles a few years back; it lacks the power up front and now, with Handre Pollard on the bank for the year, lacks punch in the backs. I suspect news of the seriousness of Pollard’s injury might change the odds in this conference a little, as he was the single best player in it. Nobody expects the Bulls to do much this season – and that probably includes their die-hard crazy fans as well – but winning the conference gives them a big hand up and playoff games at Loftus are notoriously hard to win. Still, you take them at your own risk.

After 17 weeks the Bulls will be: Wishing Handre Pollard had been available. Without him the road will be too tough