Clinical patience meets creative brutality in PNC third-place final

Why You Should Care

The bronze medal match of any tournament can always feel like a bit of a let-down– two teams coming off well-fought semi-finals trying to find motivation to play for a consolation prize. However, the USA v Samoa matchup brings some extra spice that might be missing from a different pairing. Having only met twice since 2018, USA has surprisingly won the last two meetings, including a last-minute conversion in 2018 and a gritty, muddy match in the 2019 Pacific Nations Cup. The matchup between a young Eagles starting to find their identity and the always dangerous Samoa with a chip on their shoulder promises an encounter to remember.

Samoa come off of a 49-27 loss to Japan, where they were outclassed early and could not catch up to a well-oiled Japanese machine. Samoa’s tries came off of explosive broken and individual plays, living up to their reputation for brutal and creative rugby. However, their disconnected form also let them down, presenting broken fronts that Japan exploited clinically. Their size advantage never materialized in any form of consistent edge.

USA fell to Fiji 22-3 in a match that showcased the depth of the fight in the Eagles' defence, but also revealed the shakiness of USA’s finishing ability. Holding the potent Fiji attack to 3 tries speaks for itself, especially as they entered the USA 22m on 10 occasions. In set piece, they shored up their maul defence and were also able to win 3 scrum penalties. However, the fact remains that the Eagles only managed to score a single penalty, despite 7 entries to the Fijian 22m, including two 5m lineouts. While the squad rotation might explain some of the shaky connections, the basics of lineouts and tight attack should not suffer for it.

Why Samoa Will Win

Despite their heavy loss to Fiji, Samoa play a similar style to their island neighbours, particularly in the ways that have given USA trouble in the PNC. They thrive on broken play, especially counter-attacks on poorly executed kicks. The hot, slick conditions of Japan haven’t seemed to have dampened their skills the way others have struggled, and the tries they scored against Japan showed the brilliance of which they are capable. Hard-running wingers can create deep bends in the defence which allow their forwards to build heads of steam and become nigh unstoppable through the middle of the field.

Despite USA’s improved maul defence, Samoa brings no shortage of size and brutality in their forward pack, and any regression in form will see Samoa bully that part of the game. In the scrum, injuries in the USA camp mean that they have a new cap on the bench in loosehead Payton Telea, and recently capped tighthead Pono Davis. Any scrum trouble early will not have any veteran presence coming off the bench to shore things up, and could lead to painful penalty troubles for the Eagles.

Why USA Will Win

In their match against Fiji, USA built on their strong tackling in tight with an improved rush defence in the outside backs. Fiji’s potent attack faltered in the face of American line speed, and their forwards were unable to break the gainline with brute force. Concerns about Fiji’s offload game never materialized, and except for two lapses USA held the line. Samoa bring a similar but less practised form of the Fijian attack, so the Eagles should confidently shut down any outside threats.

On attack, USA has brought Luke Carty back in at flyhalf, meaning his devastating kicking game will once again challenge the opposition backfield. Consistently turning the Samoa back three and preventing any promising counter-attack will stymie a main source of scoring. In addition, a dominant kicking game provides even more opportunities for a strong defence to create turnover ball, from which the USA has shown an ability to create scoring threats. If they’re able to shore up their lineout performance from last week, they’ve shown good creativity in the driving maul to get around Samoa’s size advantage.

Why Anyone Can Win

Both teams will have the opportunity to seize this match and make it their own– Samoa through creative attack and physical brutality, USA through clinical defence and patient attack. While Samoa can certainly score from anywhere, neither team will run away with this early and the match will come down to the final twenty minutes. Don’t underestimate the motivation factor here either– USA will want to show they can consistently compete and win against these almost-Tier 1 teams, while Samoa will want to comprehensively put away a team five places behind them in the rankings.

I’m picking the Eagles to win a tight one, on the back of Carty’s boot and Cory Daniel’s shoulders.