Coronavirus impact could force NZR to hit the reset button
Covid-19 coronavirus could be the re-making of rugby in New Zealand.
Frankly it needs to be, because the game’s going to go broke in the meantime.
Aidan Ross of the Chiefs
Proclamations are overtaken by actual events every five minutes at the moment, but it seems pretty safe to say Super Rugby is a goner for 2020. At least in an external sense.
Likewise, the All Blacks’ planned fixtures against Scotland and Wales, followed by The Rugby Championship, surely can’t go ahead. We all understand that SANZAAR, and their constituent partners, need rugby to resume as soon as possible, but it’s hard to see how that would be feasible or even in good taste.
Many of us take what we read and see and hear with a grain of salt these days. To be really honest, we probably even ignore it entirely, safe in the knowledge that the person telling the story is exaggerating or a halfwit and maybe even a flat out liar.
It’s why the suspension - and probably soon to be cancellation - of so many sporting competitions has come so suddenly and so shockingly. We all assumed this coronavirus thing was just another Y2K bug or similar and certainly nothing that would affect us personally or the codes we followed.
Instead, we’ve got a genuine pandemic on our hands, which various governments appear to be late comprehending themselves. People are dying in big numbers - and appear likely to continue doing so - meaning sport is hardly a priority.
Problem is for SANZAAR, New Zealand Rugby (NZR) and all the rest of them, is that games pay the bills. Everyone’s finances are stretched to the limit and when the money stops flowing, because nobody’s playing or attending footy, then things are going to get pretty desperate pretty quick.
Get ready to go hyper-local, then.
There’s no way NZR can let months pass idly by here. It’s impossible to know what a safe or respectful hiatus is, but you assume we’ll get live rugby back on TV within maybe four or five weeks.
That’s likely to be just New Zealand’s Super Rugby franchises for starters but, in time, there’s every reason to suspect club, schools and provincial footy will all receive significant airtime too.
We’re forever told there’s no market for New Zealand rugby. Sure, we far prefer watching our own rather than, say, South African or Australian Super sides, but it’s not financially sustainable.
Fair enough, but here’s a chance to change that. To fix a model that’s broken anyway and create a demand for our own product.
Can you honestly see the All Blacks travelling the world this year and having other sides tour here? Not at this rate.
So if there’s going to be rugby, then it’s going to be the sort that we older folk grew up with and which doesn’t feature teams who fly in from hither and yon.
Will it be able to pay for itself? The honest answer is maybe and depends to a large degree on just how bad this pandemic gets.
Put it this way: we might never see stronger demand for New Zealand rugby ever again.
Things need to change and, more than anything, players need to accept wages far more in keeping with what the rest of us make. These guys were bankrupting the game long before coronavirus and we haven’t even seen the worst of that yet.
People in this country like to profess their love for rugby. They like to dub it our national game and to revel in the performances of players from nursery grade level right on up to the All Blacks.
Well, an opportunity is coming to make that a reality again. To celebrate the New Zealand game and to develop a model that might sustain it through pandemics, global financial crises and whatever else.
The short-term effects of coronavirus could be really grim for all of us, let alone the good folk who play and administer rugby. But what emerges in the aftermath might be the best thing to happen to rugby in New Zealand for many a year.
Leon MacDonald joins The Breakdown to discuss the Blues:
Latest Comments
Excellent points Mz. Because of other commitments I have just watched the game.
Interesting watching it after reading all the news reports especially in the English media. I was expecting to see a game that the ABs were very lucky to win. What I saw was a game that England showed their tactical incompetence and their inability to construct any try scoring opportunities.
They can go on deluding themselves that they were unlucky to lose ( as Borthwick said post match ) but until they stop relying on rush defence and goal kicking to win I feel they're doomed to be ranked 4 or 5 in the world.
Can't wait until the weekend to see how the Wallabies go against them
Though I dare say Walter will be hoping for an England win.
Go to commentsIF SA and NZ win then its 1,2,3 SA/NZ/IRL Otherwise as you were. This is largely irrelevant beyond bragging rights.
As I have pointed out elsewhere the practical use of the Rankings is to determine the seedings bands for the RWC draw. The draw takes place early 2026 and hopefully the rankings will be taken from then.
Important to be in the top 6, the top 12. (and likely the top 4).
This is because there are now 6 groups in the RWC 2027.
If you are in top 6 you are in Seeding Band 1. That means none of the other top 6 will be in your group.
Seeding Band 2 are teams from 7-12, who will have a top 6 team but no other 7-12 team.
After England's defeat by NZ there is clear water between NZ in 3rd, France in 4th and England in 5th. England are desperate for top4, ill come back and explain why later.
Lets look at Seeding Band 1 and 6th place. If you make 6th, no top 6 team is in your group, you are top dog. If you win your group, you won't be facing a top 6 team in your 1/8th final, you will be facing a weaker team. If you fail to make 6th place you WILL have a top 6 team in your group and if you don't win your group you WILL (probably) meet a top 6 in the 1/8 final. That's massive.
Its Argentina holding 6th now. Assuming England hold 5th, then its a 4 horse race for 6th. Argentina, Scotland, Italy and ...Australia. (ranked 6,7,8,9)
Australia play the Lions in NH summer 2025 they are running out of time to get up to 6th for their own RWC. They MUST make a move now. They must beat Wales and they really must beat Scotland to gain points and take points off them. Could they surprise England or Ireland? England may be the better bet but Schmidt knows Ireland so well having masterminded their downfall in France.
Another one to watch is Italy V Argentina. Italy are ambitious and they will want to start pushing the likes of Argentina. If they win this they are still in the hunt. Well worth a watch either way.
Top4: I think the top 6 will be seeded, all the way through from the draw. If thats the case then the top 4 will be seeded to avoid each other until the semi. Good for more certainty around ticket sales etc. That's a possible reason why England want in there. You're not in there you are hitting a top 4 team in a QF. That's an extra 50:50 match you can do without and avoid by being top 4.
Lets look at what Seeding bands might look like with todays rankings:
Seeding Band 1
IRE/SA/NZ/FRA/ENG/ARG
Seeding Band 2
SCO/ITA/AUS/FIJ/WAL/GEO
Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if in top 6
Strongest pool opponent: FIJI
1/8 final opponent GEORGIA
Prognosis: advance to 1/4 and potentially beyond
Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if NOT in top 6
Strongest pool opponent: SOUTH AFRICA
1/8 final opponent NEW ZEALAND
Prognosis: You know the prognosis
I am pretty sure this is not lost on Joe Schmidt?
Keep in mind when enjoying the matches.
Go to comments