Eight qualifiers undermines the quality of the Super Rugby finals
Friday night’s fixture between the Crusaders and the Highlanders saw Super Rugby’s top seed take on the eighth ranked team in the competition.
The Highlanders snuck into the finals by the skin of their teeth on the back of a bonus point victory over a Waratahs side resting Bernard Foley, Michael Hooper, Kurtley Beale and Sekope Kepu.
While many saw Friday’s match as a slim chance for the unfancied Highlanders to possibly get one up over their big brothers (however improbable), there was a certain inevitability in a Crusaders win.
Few would have predicted as a comprehensive a thrashing as what we saw from the Crusaders, however.
Ultimately, however, the result should come as no surprise to anyone thinking with their head instead of their heart.
The Crusaders entered the finals with 11 wins and 2 draws and 2 losses (excluding the called off match between them and the Highlanders from earlier in the season).
The Highlanders had 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses to their name (not including the abandoned fixture). Already there’s a stark contrast between the two teams’ performances from throughout the season.
Trawl through the Highlanders’ victories, however, and you start to wonder what the southerners were even doing in the playoffs in the first place.
Four of their six wins came against the bottom four teams in the competition (and, again, the Waratahs were also resting their best players) while their other two successes were against the underperforming Chiefs (who entered their match without a goal-kicker) and the Jaguares, who benched their top players but still kept the game within seven points.
While we’ll never know for sure, there’s a good chance that the Highlanders wouldn’t have even made the play-offs if the match against the Crusaders hadn’t been terminated and both teams awarded two competition points.
All in all, the Highlanders’ season might get a pass simply on the basis of the team making the quarter-finals – but it was ultimately a hugely disappointing season for a franchise that will now lose a trove of their best and most experienced players.
How the Highlanders qualified for the finals basically comes down to the fact that they were the most consistent of the inconsistent teams – which isn’t really a grand achievement.
This, of course, begs the question of why Super Rugby even has eight teams make the sudden death stages of the tournament at all.
When there were 18 teams competing, it made a lot more sense. Now, however, over half the sides participate in the knockout rounds, which means the bar for qualifying is exceptionally low.
The original Super 12 and Super 14 competitions saw the top four sides playing finals football. When Super Rugby expanded to 15 teams in 2011, the top six qualified (with the two highest rank teams receiving a bye in the first week of the finals). That same approach will be adopted in 2021 when the Sunwolves are culled from Super Rugby.
The expansion to 18 teams in 2016 introduced the present quarter-final set up – but for whatever reason was not dropped when the Kings, Cheetahs and Western Force received the chop last year.
The cynics will say that it was an oversight on the organisers’ behalf. The even more cynical will say that the organisers didn’t want more extreme situations arising than what occurred in 2017, when the Brumbies qualified for the quarter-finals even though they were only the ninth best performing side of the year.
Imagine an outcome where the top Australia side, who are gifted a spot in the playoffs, finished ninth but still earned a place in the top six. This shouldn’t pose a problem in the future once conferences cease to exist from 2021, but it could have been a very real concern for SANZAAR, given the reservations the wider public have about Super Rugby’s integrity.
For a season that has regularly underwhelmed, the finals are a breath of fresh air; the top teams duking it out to be crowned Super Rugby champion. Unfortunately, the eight-team structure means that it’s not just the good teams going hammer and tongs at one another – it’s the ‘best teams, including some sides who haven’t shown enough to validate their place in the sudden death rounds of 2019. The same system will be retained next year – hopefully 2020’s finalists prove themselves throughout the season more so than this year’s crop.
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Excellent points Mz. Because of other commitments I have just watched the game.
Interesting watching it after reading all the news reports especially in the English media. I was expecting to see a game that the ABs were very lucky to win. What I saw was a game that England showed their tactical incompetence and their inability to construct any try scoring opportunities.
They can go on deluding themselves that they were unlucky to lose ( as Borthwick said post match ) but until they stop relying on rush defence and goal kicking to win I feel they're doomed to be ranked 4 or 5 in the world.
Can't wait until the weekend to see how the Wallabies go against them
Though I dare say Walter will be hoping for an England win.
Go to commentsIF SA and NZ win then its 1,2,3 SA/NZ/IRL Otherwise as you were. This is largely irrelevant beyond bragging rights.
As I have pointed out elsewhere the practical use of the Rankings is to determine the seedings bands for the RWC draw. The draw takes place early 2026 and hopefully the rankings will be taken from then.
Important to be in the top 6, the top 12. (and likely the top 4).
This is because there are now 6 groups in the RWC 2027.
If you are in top 6 you are in Seeding Band 1. That means none of the other top 6 will be in your group.
Seeding Band 2 are teams from 7-12, who will have a top 6 team but no other 7-12 team.
After England's defeat by NZ there is clear water between NZ in 3rd, France in 4th and England in 5th. England are desperate for top4, ill come back and explain why later.
Lets look at Seeding Band 1 and 6th place. If you make 6th, no top 6 team is in your group, you are top dog. If you win your group, you won't be facing a top 6 team in your 1/8th final, you will be facing a weaker team. If you fail to make 6th place you WILL have a top 6 team in your group and if you don't win your group you WILL (probably) meet a top 6 in the 1/8 final. That's massive.
Its Argentina holding 6th now. Assuming England hold 5th, then its a 4 horse race for 6th. Argentina, Scotland, Italy and ...Australia. (ranked 6,7,8,9)
Australia play the Lions in NH summer 2025 they are running out of time to get up to 6th for their own RWC. They MUST make a move now. They must beat Wales and they really must beat Scotland to gain points and take points off them. Could they surprise England or Ireland? England may be the better bet but Schmidt knows Ireland so well having masterminded their downfall in France.
Another one to watch is Italy V Argentina. Italy are ambitious and they will want to start pushing the likes of Argentina. If they win this they are still in the hunt. Well worth a watch either way.
Top4: I think the top 6 will be seeded, all the way through from the draw. If thats the case then the top 4 will be seeded to avoid each other until the semi. Good for more certainty around ticket sales etc. That's a possible reason why England want in there. You're not in there you are hitting a top 4 team in a QF. That's an extra 50:50 match you can do without and avoid by being top 4.
Lets look at what Seeding bands might look like with todays rankings:
Seeding Band 1
IRE/SA/NZ/FRA/ENG/ARG
Seeding Band 2
SCO/ITA/AUS/FIJ/WAL/GEO
Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if in top 6
Strongest pool opponent: FIJI
1/8 final opponent GEORGIA
Prognosis: advance to 1/4 and potentially beyond
Sample Aussie strongest pool opponent and 1/8th final opponent if NOT in top 6
Strongest pool opponent: SOUTH AFRICA
1/8 final opponent NEW ZEALAND
Prognosis: You know the prognosis
I am pretty sure this is not lost on Joe Schmidt?
Keep in mind when enjoying the matches.
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