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England given meagre five per cent chance of Six Nations title glory
By Liam Heagney
Ireland have been given a 30 per cent chance of chalking up back-to-back Grand Slam titles, with England given a meagre five per cent of winning the Guinness Six Nations.
This weekend’s start to the 2024 championship will see defending champions Ireland go to France on Friday night, with England visiting Italy and Scotland going to Wales on Saturday.
Ahead of the eagerly anticipated kick-off, Grosvenor Sport have crunched the numbers and identified the favourites for success by simulating the result of every Six Nations fixture 1,000 times in an attempt to predict the most accurate result.
A statement read: “Ireland have a whopping 61.5 per cent chance of winning the Six Nations and a 49.6 per cent chance of winning another Grand Slam, according to data analysts.
"A team of number crunchers at Grosvenor Sport have created a model that can simulate the result of every Six Nations game 1,000 times to give the most accurate result possible.
“Using the current World Rugby rankings, as well as home advantage and bonus point likelihood, Ireland won the tournament 615 times out of 1,000 – meaning they have a 61.5 per cent chance of winning the tournament.
“Using these raw figures to assimilate a percentage, we can see France are second favourites at 31.5 per cent and England trail well behind with just a 5.2 per cent chance of winning the tournament.
“Based on these figures, we can also confidently say Scotland will finish fourth, above Wales and Italy, who will collect yet another wooden spoon. There is an 84 per cent chance they will finish bottom of the Six Nations table.
“If we look at the chances of a Grand Slam, France and Ireland are once again favourites, making the opening game of the 2024 tournament even more crucial.
“Whilst it is still more likely there will not be a Grand Slam winner (49.8 per cent chance) Ireland are the most likely side to win every single game and complete back-to-back Grand Slams at 30.5 per cent.
“The opening game of the tournament in Marseille is likely to decide not only the course of the championship, but also the likelihood of a Grand Slam for either team. France have a 15.6 per cent chance of winning the Grand Slam, a feat they managed in 2022 after beating Ireland 30-24.
“England have got just a three per cent chance of winning the Grand Slam, slightly better than Scotland who have a one per cent chance of winning it."
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Agreed. As a Saffa I have much respect for the ABs. I also have to say given any option I would ONLY prefer to lose to ABs. To lose to England is probably the most embarrassing think to happen to either of us.
There was a time when both of us lost to England and we both hated it. Thankfully those days are behind us. Kudos to you guys, kudos to ABs. But dear old BS seems to hate us Boks. No idea why.
Go to commentsI got the sense that holding him to it was kickback from SB and the rfu smarting at being jilted quite so soon, so unexpectedly and so publicly.
Seem to remember that they spoke to Gustard before appointing Joe and you really have to think he would have come in at a higher level?
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