England Have the All Blacks' Record in Their Sights, but What About the Number One Slot?
England have just completed an unbeaten year and are a Six Nations Grand Slam away from breaking the All Blacks' winning streak – but James Harrington says they are two years away from being the best in the world
The English are coming! That's the 21st-century take on American Independence patriot Paul Revere's legendary call currently being hollered across the rugby media. All Blacks beware!
The English are coming! In registering their fourth win over Australia in six months, England registered an unbeaten calendar year for the first time since 1992, when they played six matches. And they equalled their best-ever winning streak - 14 - to match the pre-World Cup run of their now-fabled 2003 predecessors.
The English are coming! Even before Saturday's game, England had already beaten eight of the top 10 ranked teams in 2016 - including three of the four 2015 Rugby World Cup semi-finalists.
The English are coming! Just five more matches - the 2017 Six Nations - stand between the red rose nation and a new world-record run for a Tier One nation. The All Blacks' hard-earned 18-Test streak will, apparently, last less than a year.
The English are coming! Fate and the Six Nations fixture list have handed Eddie Jones a tournament campaign to die for. They start at Twickenham against France - who have not won in London since 2005 - on February 4; then head to Cardiff to face the passionate but out-of-form Welsh before two home matches - against Italy and then Scotland.
The English are coming! The only side that stands in their way, then, is Ireland. England's one big trip of the 2017 Six Nations sees them head to Dublin for the final match of the tournament. All things being equal, the pundits say, it will be a Grand Slam decider, as well as the all-important World Record Match for England.
And yet... There's no doubt 2016 era England are good - as Australia coach Michael Cheika said, no side wins 14 internationals in a row by luck - and they are deservedly second in the world rankings. But they remain firmly behind a team that is just as deservedly first.
Jones himself has been quick to play down the rise and rise of the English during his tenure. He said: "We're only the number two team in the world and we want to be number one. We've got a long way to go before we achieve that. And we're hell-bent on achieving that."
The numbers tell their own story: Yes, England have a perfect record in 2016. And, yes, they have played - and beaten - most of their Top 10 rivals this year, including three RWC semi-finalists. And, yes, they are five matches away from breaking the All Blacks' winning streak.
But, New Zealand have also played - and beaten - the other three RWC semi-finalists. At least twice. They have bettered Wales three times; and France, Italy and Ireland once. Their sole defeat in a 14-match 2016 was against Joe Schmidt's men in green in Chicago.
During their four-match November northern hemisphere tour, the All Blacks scored 152 points and conceded 78. England, meanwhile, notched 159 points with 71 against.
Close, then? Maybe not as close as it seems. In their 13 Tests in 2016, England scored 46 tries to finish second in the try-scoring list of the year. It doesn't take a genius to work out which country tops that list - but the margin between the first and second is telling.
The All Blacks scored 80 tries.
Looking ahead, victory is far from assured for England in the Six Nations matches leading up to that eagerly awaited Ireland encounter. Two matches, in particular, are closer to call than many would suggest. Guy Novès is rebuilding the French in his own image - after just a few months, the closer union between the Top 14 and the national side is having a clear and noticeable effect; and Scotland have discovered the sacred art of creativity to go with their burgeoning strength in depth.
Jones has already highlighted areas where his side needs to improve, and is talking tough on the set piece.
And he has warned his players that places are not guaranteed: "If you don’t keep performing you won’t be in the team. If players aren’t hungry and you see it in their performance they won’t be here. We have enough depth to change the squad if we need to.”
That unbeaten year is a start, but for England to be overtake New Zealand in the world rankings, they first need to win their next five games to complete a second successive Grand Slam. The record is secondary.
After the Lions' tour of New Zealand - when much empty capital is likely to be won and lost - they will need to regroup for the 2017 November internationals and the 2018 Six Nations.
So, yes, the English are coming. But while the All Blacks should take note, they have no need to worry yet. England have a long way to go to catch New Zealand. Rugby scheduling circumstance will keep them apart - like heavyweight boxing champions circling ahead of a unification fight - until November 2018.
By then - fate, fitness and form willing - the English may be ready.
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A few comments. Firstly, I am a Bok fan and it's been a golden period for us. I hope my fellow Bok fans appreciate this time and know that it cannot last forever, so soak it all in!
The other thing to mention (and this is targeted at Welsh, English and even Aussie supporters who might be feeling somewhat dejected) is that it's easy to forget that just before Rassie Erasmus took over in 2018, the Boks were ranked 7th in the world and I had given up hope we'd ever be world beaters again.
Sport is a fickle thing and Rassie and his team have managed to get right whatever little things it takes to make a mediocre team great. I initially worried his methods might be short-lived (how many times can you raise a person's commitment by talking about his family and his love of his country as a motivator), but he seems to have found a way. After winning in 2019 on what was a very simple game plan, he has taken things up ever year - amazing work which has to be applauded! (Dankie Rassie! Ons wardeer wat jy vir die ondersteuners en die land doen!) (Google translate if you don't understand Afrikaans! 😁)
I don't think people outside South Africa fully comprehend the enormity of the impact seeing black and white, English, Afrikaans and Xhosa and all the other hues playing together does for the country's sense of unity. It's pure joy and happiness.
This autumn tour has been a bit frustrating in that the Boks have won, but never all that convincingly. On the one hand, I'd like to have seen more decisive victories, BUT what Rassie has done is expose a huge number of players to test rugby, whilst also diversifying the way the Boks play (Tony Brown's influence).
This change of both style and personnel has resulted in a lack of cohesion at times and we've lost some of the control, whereas had we been playing our more traditional style, that wouldn't happen. This is partially attributable to the fact that you cannot play Tony Brown's expansive game whilst also having 3 players available at every contact point to clear the defence off the ball. I have enjoyed seeing the Boks play a more exciting, less attritional game, which is a boring, albeit effective spectacle. So, I am happy to be patient, because the end justifies the means (and I trust Rassie!). Hopefully all these players we are blooding will give us incredible options for substitutions come next year's Rugby Championship and of course, the big prize in 2027.
Last point! The game of rugby has never been as exciting as it is now. Any of Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa, France, Argentina, Scotland, England & Australia can beat one another. South Africa may be ranked #1, but I wouldn't bet my house in them beating France or New Zealand, and we saw Argentina beating both South Africa and New Zealand this year! That's wonderful for the game and makes the victories we do get all the sweeter. Each win is 100% earned. Long may it last!
Sorry for the long post! 🏉🌍
Go to commentsWouldn’t mind seeing that grounding in slow mo there. Too much to ask?
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