England vs South Africa: RPI gives the Springboks the advantage at Twickenham
Head coaches Eddie Jones and Rassie Erasmus have both named their teams to play at Twickenham on Saturday, as their rivalry from this summer is resumed.
England fell to a 2-1 series defeat in South Africa back in June, after having ended an almost 10-year slump against the Springboks back in November of 2016, then beating the southern hemisphere side 37-21 at Twickenham.
England have struggled since those early highs under Jones, however, and South Africa have been making steady progress under Erasmus, including a morale-boosting win over the All Blacks in Wellington, back in September.
The RugbyPass Index (RPI) charts the performances of players using a combination of complex statistics, positional weighting and influence in the phases building up to scoring moments. Here is how to the two sides set to do battle on Saturday stack up on the RPI.
Front row – Alec Hepburn (71), Dylan Hartley (72) and Kyle Sinckler (68) vs Steven Kitshoff (71), Malcolm Marx (91) and Frans Malherbe (73)
Second row – Maro Itoje (93) and George Kruis (87) vs Eben Etzebeth (90) and Pieter-Steph du Toit (71)
Back row – Brad Shields (69), Tom Curry (66) and Mark Wilson (64) vs Duane Vermeulen (90), Siya Kolisi (83) and Warren Whiteley (89)
Half-backs – Ben Youngs (75) and Owen Farrell (92) vs Ivan van Zyl (63) and Handré Pollard (86)
Centres – Ben Te’o (66) and Henry Slade (84) vs Damian de Allende (79) and Jesse Kriel (72)
Back three – Jonny May (78), Jack Nowell (89) and Elliot Daly (85) vs Aphiwe Dyantyi (77), Sbu Nkosi (75) and Damian Willemse (81)
Overall XVs – England (1,159) vs South Africa (1,191)
Benches – Jamie George (88), Ben Moon (86), Harry Williams (81), Charlie Ewels (62), Zach Mercer (67), Danny Care (66), George Ford (79) and Manu Tuilagi (76) vs Bongi Mbonambi (75), Thomas du Toit (81), Wilco Louw (75), RG Snyman (84), Lood de Jager (81), Embrose Papier (65), Elton Jantjies (82) and André Esterhuizen (84)
Overall 23s – England (1,764) vs South Africa (1,818)
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Watch: Introducing the RugbyPass Index - how it works
It looks as if the Springboks have a slight advantage over England based on the RPI, one which is made starker when you include the potential impacts of the benches, too. That said, will home advantage be enough to swing it in England’s favour?
The home side look particularly outmatched in the back row, but they will be confident about their chances given the strength of their lock and half-back pairings, as well as the increased impact their bench front row potentially offers.
Look for the back row battle, the introduction of the second string front rows and the play of the two half-back partnerships to be particular flashpoints in this one.
Watch: The Rugby Pod discuss why extending the Gallagher Premiership season is a bad idea.
Latest Comments
I think the best 15 we have is DMac. Jordan at 14.
Go to commentsIt certainly needs to be cherished. Despite Nick (and you) highlighting their usefulness for teams like Australia (and obviously those in France they find form with) I (mention it general in those articles) say that I fear the game is just not setup in Aus and NZ to appreciate nor maximise their strengths. The French game should continue to be the destination of the biggest and most gifted athletes but it might improve elsewhere too.
I just have an idea it needs a whole team focus to make work. I also have an idea what the opposite applies with players in general. I feel like French backs and halves can be very small and quick, were as here everyone is made to fit in a model physique. Louis was some 10 and 20 kg smaller that his opposition and we just do not have that time of player in our game anymore. I'm dying out for a fast wing to appear on the All Blacks radar.
But I, and my thoughts on body size in particular, could be part of the same indoctrination that goes on with player physiques by the establishment in my parts (country).
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