England will be the blockbuster, but Scotland is the banana peel for the All Blacks
The All Blacks head into their Northern tour a much more settled outfit after coming home with a wet sail through the most turbulent home season in recent memory.
The worst seems over as the side has rapidly improved on the back of a historic home series loss to Ireland, claiming a Rugby Championship title for the second straight season and third straight SANZAAR title.
That seismic series loss to Ireland led to a tense, but ultimately much-needed second look at where this team was headed, which in all likelihood, was a quarterfinal exit in France next year.
With the benefit of hindsight, the assistants do seem to have played a massive part in this unravelling.
Tasked with most of the field work during trainings, honing the finer details and holding players to account in the search of perfect execution, the assistants play a much larger role in the machine than most realise.
When those conversations go amiss and details aren't corrected, players left unsure or confused, it can go horribly wrong and yet no one in charge can quite figure out why.
The All Blacks were a talented side that look disjointed, lacking technical accuracy in just about everything, and most notably, looking rigid and lacking ingenuity in how they wanted to play.
The promotion of Joe Schmidt from selector to assistant has clearly had the desired impact with the former Ireland head coach a stickler for accuracy and minor details that led to exponential returns.
Unfortunately for Ian Foster, he is in a lose-lose situation now in terms of his stature with the public.
Given how his hand-picked coaching team crashed and burned, if they go on to win the World Cup, most will be grateful to Jason Ryan and Schmidt for rescuing the sinking ship.
If they lose, many will lay fault on Foster for digging a hole too deep to get out of.
Although the lack of minutes for fringe players has been a criticism, the side has benefitted from continuity in the selections.
They needed to build cohesion and the only way to do that is to continue to play, ideally under direction from a taskmaster who can identify and sort out the issues.
Rieko Ioane went from a ball-hogging, artificial midfielder to a genuine No 13 with world class touch in the space of a couple months. Will Jordan finally got enough ball to ensure New Zealand's best rugby player could actually make an impact.
Richie Mo'unga finally got things clicking and began to play with loose freedom, in a good way, with the shackles of doubt and indecision removed. David Havili showed flashes and they finally used his skills in a way that suit, instead of asking him to truck up carries into much larger midfielders.
Jordie Barrett got a run at No 12 and looked like the bruising option that has been sorely missed. His line running was direct, his carries were strong and his hits in defence were stronger.
However, the sample size is too small to rubber stamp a permanent position move for Barrett. The All Blacks need that kind of performance against the likes of South Africa, France or England, sides that are defensively up for it.
The Twickenham test against a fit Manu Tuilagi would be a golden opportunity for Barrett to solidify his midfield credentials.
Beauden Barrett has been playing at fullback a little more, even starting there in the final test against the Wallabies, yet no one is talking about whether 'dual playmakers' work or not, a sign things are clicking.
Up front the sea change in the front row worked wonders immediately, picking hard workers who can nail their roles across the park. This lift in energy from a younger, more mobile front row immediately raised the standard of All Black play.
Samisoni Taukei'aho has been the find of the season for the All Blacks, without a doubt. His power in the carry left opposition forwards reeling, giving front foot ball while his accurate throwing at lineout time cemented a starting role going forward.
The makings of a champion side are there, but bigger scalps must be taken on the path to the top. They won't get a chance to avenge their losses to France or Ireland until the World Cup, and will have only one more against South Africa.
This end of year tour with tests against Japan, Wales, Scotland and England can help restore the All Blacks' reputation in Europe again.
The 2018 tour featured a win over England by a whisker, before a shock defeat to Ireland in Dublin.
The 2021 edition started well with a 54-16 defeat of Wales, albeit outside the international window, before crushing back-to-back defeats to Ireland and France to finish the year.
Their last dominant end of year tour in Europe came five years ago, in 2017, when they handsomely beat France, got past Scotland in a tight one and blitzed Wales.
Rieko Ioane scooped up the Breakthrough Player of the Year award, while Beauden Barrett bagged his second consecutive World Player of the Year crown.
It has been awhile since the All Blacks swept all before them up North and that outcome this year would still be considered a pleasant surprise in New Zealand.
Most would pick the England test as the toughest of this tour, and it will be tough, but Scotland is the less fancied opponent that can cause problems going under the radar, even without mercurial flyhalf Finn Russell.
Scotland were one Stuart Hogg-miracle try and conversion away from a historic win back in 2017, before a Barrett cover tackle scuppered Scottish hopes at the death by barrelling the fullback over the sideline.
This Edinburgh test has been a long time coming and this Scotland side has been strong in recent years, matching and beating a faltering England side twice, even beating France in Paris in last year's Six Nations.
In 2020 during Russell's first enforced sabbatical, the combination of Adam Hastings and Stuart Hogg worked incredibly well during the Six Nations, with Hastings offering similar playmaking upside in attack without the inevitable catastrophic plays Russell can bring.
Why Hastings was then dropped when Russell returned in 2021 was a mystery, but if he is back at No 10 he will do more good than harm for Scotland.
England will be the blockbuster test, but Scotland is the banana peel Foster does not want to step on right before the big dance at Twickenham.
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The first half penalties against NZ were for speculative tackling because England were attacking so flat. If NZ didn't do this then it may have been tries and not penalties conceded earlier. I believe Felix Jones is still helping with the transition online. It was quite clear he wasn't helping in person with Earls in particular shooting up and leaving huge holes. NZ had a few that nearly stuck but the two tries by Telea were defensive errors. Furbank biting on Sititi leaving Genge to mark. Genge wont show Telea the outside again. Poor tacking on Telea for the second. That said he is a hard man to grab hold of.
Isolating Genge was clever for Jordans try. NZ spotted he defended wide too often and they could leave a gap with that switch play. 6 day turnaround for Ireland now.
I imagine NZ will be better, but they will need to be a lot better.
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