Every game in the 2017/18 Champions Cup predicted - this team wins

Want to know who will get a home quarter-final in this season’s Champions Cup? Who faces an embarrassing group stage exit? Who will ultimately lift the trophy in Bilbao next year?

Then read on, as we attempt to predict the entire 2017/18 competition before it kicks off this weekend.

Please note, we cannot take responsibility for lost earnings in ill-advised wagers, foolish social media declarations or pub chat proven spectacularly wrong based upon these predictions…

 

Pool 1 – La Rochelle, Harlequins, Ulster and Wasps

This is incredibly difficult pool to call.

Any of the four teams are capable of topping the group, with La Rochelle the emerging force in France over the last couple of seasons, Ulster starting the PRO14 in good form and Quins developing an ability to win on the road this season, something which has plagued them in recent years.

Wasps may have been favourites to top the pool when the draw was made back in the summer but a poor start to the season and a host of injuries have dented their chances. They are still in the mix, but it will require a dramatic upturn in their recent fortunes.

There is plenty of try bonus point potential with La Rochelle and we see the French side translating their impressive Top 14 form into Europe.

Round 1

Ulster 28 – 15 Wasps

Harlequins 21 – 18 La Rochelle

Round 2

La Rochelle 30 – 15 Ulster

Wasps 25 – 21 Harlequins

Round 3

Harlequins 18 – 12 Ulster

La Rochelle 38 – 24 Wasps

Round 4

Ulster 31 – 25 Harlequins

Wasps 18 – 28 La Rochelle

Round 5

Harlequins 21 – 26 Wasps

Ulster 27 – 24 La Rochelle

Round 6

La Rochelle 32 – 28 Harlequins

Wasps 45 – 20 Ulster

Table

La Rochelle 21 points (3 try bonus points, 2 losing bonus points)

Ulster 14 pts (1 TBP, 1 LBP)

Wasps 14 pts (2 TBPs)

Harlequins 13 pts (1 TBP, 4 LBPs)

 

Pool 2 – Clermont Auvergne, Saracens, Ospreys and Northampton Saints

Northampton’s solid start to the season has certainly spiced up this pool and should help make up for the continued run of bad form of the Ospreys.

The Welsh region certainly look like the whipping boys in this group, with Clermont and Saracens strong favourites to progress, although Northampton could well play a telling role in ensuring that only one team qualifies from this tough group.

Clermont’s form may be sagging in the Top 14, but they always seem to find a higher gear in Europe. Well, European finals aside, of course.

Round 1

Northampton 21 – 25 Saracens

Ospreys 15 – 31 Clermont

Round 2

Clermont 35 – 25 Northampton

Saracens 48 – 10 Ospreys

Round 3

Northampton 28 – 13 Ospreys

Saracens 18 – 12 Clermont

Round 4

Ospreys 24 – 27 Northampton

Clermont 25 – 23 Saracens

Round 5

Northampton 15 – 20 Clermont

Ospreys 17 – 31 Saracens

Round 6

Clermont 32 – 10 Ospreys

Saracens 35 – 21 Northampton

Table

Saracens 24 pts (3 TBPs, 1 LBP)

Clermont 23 pts (2 TBPs, 1 LBP)

Northampton 10 pts (1 TBP, 1 LBP)

Ospreys 2 pts (1 TBP, 1 LBP)

 

Pool 3 – Exeter Chiefs, Montpellier, Leinster and Glasgow Warriors

Glasgow are the last undefeated side in domestic competition this season, whilst Montpellier, Exeter and Leinster are all flying high in the Top 14, Premiership and PRO14 respectively. This is the form pool in the competition, without a shadow of doubt.

Glasgow proved last year that their days of solely being a power in the PRO14 were over and that they were also a force to be reckoned with in Europe, whilst Exeter will be looking to make a similar statement this season, having proven their credentials by lifting the Premiership trophy last season.

Round 1

Leinster 18 – 15 Montpellier

Exeter 25 – 23 Glasgow

Round 2

Glasgow 31 – 25 Leinster

Montpellier 32 – 15 Exeter

Round 3

Glasgow 24 – 30 Montpellier

Exeter 29 – 21 Leinster

Round 4

Montpelier 38 – 32 Glasgow

Leinster 33 – 18 Exeter

Round 5

Leinster 27 – 25 Glasgow

Exeter 26 – 19 Montpellier

Round 6

Montpellier 35 – 20 Leinster

Glasgow 21 – 13 Exeter

Table

Montpellier 21 pts (3 TBPs, 2 LBPs)

Leinster 15 pts (2 TBPs, 1 LBP)

Glasgow 14 pts (2 TBPs, 4 LBPs)

Exeter 13 pts (1 TBP)

 

Pool 4 – Castres Olympique, Leicester Tigers, Munster and Racing 92

Neither Castres nor Racing are setting the Top 14 alight this season, with both nestled in midtable obscurity after seven rounds of fixtures. If they fail to make a fast start in Europe, it is not hard to imagine them turning their backs on the competition and focusing on their domestic campaigns.

That said, Leicester and Munster aren’t soaring in their respective competitions, either, but with both teams registering four wins from their opening six games, they are finding ways to win, despite neither being at their best just yet.

Round 1

Racing 21 – 24 Leicester

Castres 18 – 24 Munster

Round 2

Leicester 31 – 20 Castres

Munster 28 – 21 Racing

Round 3

Castres 18 – 15 Racing

Munster 33 – 28 Leicester

Round 4

Racing 29 – 13 Castres

Leicester 27 – 22 Munster

Round 5

Castres 24 – 19 Leicester

Racing 20 – 25 Munster

Round 6

Leicester 35 – 17 Racing

Munster 44 – 15 Castres

Table

Munster 22 pts (1 TBP, 1 LBP)

Leicester 20 pts (2 TBPs, 2 LBPs)

Castres 9 pts (1 LBP)

Racing 8 pts (1 TBP, 3 LBPs)

 

Pool 5 – Bath, Benetton Rugby, Toulon and Scarlets

It’s probably safe to say Benetton won’t be qualifying from the group, but after that, it’s a three-horse race.

Scarlets are the reigning PRO14 champions and caused both Toulon and Saracens plenty of problems last season, whilst Bath have a new-found resiliency which should see them cope well in the Champions Cup, especially away from home.

As for Toulon, their star might not burn as brightly as it once did, but they are still a force to be reckoned with and the Stade Mayol remains one of the major fortresses of European rugby.

Round 1

Bath 35 – 10 Benetton

Toulon 28 – 23 Scarlets

Round 2

Scarlets 31 – 25 Bath

Benetton 15 – 33 Toulon

Round 3

Scarlets 55 – 18 Benetton

Toulon 28 – 15 Bath

Round 4

Benetton 21 – 38 Scarlets

Bath 21 – 18 Toulon

Round 5

Bath 28 – 21 Scarlets

Toulon 44 – 20 Benetton

Round 6

Benetton 13 – 29 Bath

Scarlets 31 – 22 Toulon

Table

Scarlets 22 pts (4 TBPs, 2 LBPs)

Toulon 20 pts (3 TBPs, 1 LBP)

Bath 19 pts (2 TBPs, 1 LBP)

Benetton 0 pts

 

Knockouts

Based on our permutations, this would see Saracens, Scarlets, Munster, Montpelier and La Rochelle qualify for the knockout stages as group winners, with Clermont, Toulon and Leicester also progressing as best runners-up.

Their respective seeding would see the following quarter-finals:

Saracens (1) vs Leicester (8)

Scarlets (2) vs Toulon (7)

Munster (3) vs Clermont (6)

Montpellier (4) vs La Rochelle (5)

There is often an away win at this stage, but let’s assume our pool stage predictions hold up and the fourth highest seeded sides are the form teams going into the quarter-finals and all four hold serve to secure their places in the semi-finals.

Due to a rather complex set of permutations for the semi-finals – detailed here (http://www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionscup/rules.php) on the competition’s official website – the following semi-finals would take place:

Saracens vs Montpellier

Scarlets vs Munster

Again, putting faith in our pre-tournament predictions of form, ability and squad depth, that leaves us with a Saracens vs Scarlets final in Bilbao next May.

Of course, with so much time between now and the beginning of the knockouts, teams’ stock could dramatically rise or fall by then and the likes of Toulon and Clermont are strong candidates to upset the apple cart with away wins in the quarter-finals, which would have knock-on effects for the semi-finals, not just in terms of line-ups, but also venues.

There is no doubt, however, that a final boasting Saracens and Scarlets would be an entertaining affair for the neutral. It is hard to look beyond a Saracens “threepeat” at this stage, but the beauty of European rugby are the upsets it can spring and the competitiveness of the competition at all stages.

At the risk of alienating everyone in Llanelli, a Liam Williams brace anyone?

Saracens by 10.