Fiji miss out, NZ will bounce back: 7 bold predictions for Olympic sevens

It all comes down to this. Three years on from the Tokyo Games, 12 teams from women’s and men’s rugby have their opportunity to push for gold at the Paris Olympics which gets underway this week.

The iconic Stade de France will host the biggest sevens event in history, but unlike the SVNS Series, the men will play out their three days of history first before the women get to do the same. It'll be held from July 24 to 30.

Antoine Dupont and France will be feeling the pressure and excitement of playing at home, but after taking out the SVNS crown, they’ll be full of confidence. The same can be said for Maddison Levi and Australia who did the same in the women’s competition.

With rugby sevens set to kick off the Games soon, it’s time we look ahead at what the next week might look like. There are six medals to be won across the men’s and women’s tournaments, so dreams will either be dashed or realised in Saint-Denis.

Antoine Dupont will help France win an Olympic medal, and it might be gold

France were beaten by New Zealand in the men’s Hong Kong Sevens Cup Final a few months ago but their performance across that three-day event was still very impressive. Without Antoine Dupont, they had come close to a legendary accomplishment.

Dupont helped France to a third-place finish on debut at SVNS Vancouver earlier this year, and the former World Rugby 15s Player of the Year backed that up by leading Les Bleus Sevens to a drought-breaking triumph in Los Angeles the following week.

France hadn’t won a Cup Final in 19 years before beating Great Britain 21-nil at Dignity Health Sports Park, so to nearly back that up at the next SVNS Series stop in Hong Kong China was incredibly impressive.

They did that without Dupont, too.

With the likes of Theor Forner, Paulin Riva, Rayan Rebbadj and Stephen Parez Edo Martin playing for them, France had already proven themselves as genuine contenders. Add Dupont into that mix, and it almost wasn’t a surprise to see them take out the Grand Final in Madrid.

There are two important points to consider here. One, their Cup Final drought that has hung over them for so long doesn’t anymore – the floodgates are open. Two, Dupont brings an X-factor to a team that already boasts world-class talent.

Then, if you look ahead to the Paris Olympics, there will be 80,000 fans chanting ‘Allez Les Bleus’ every time France plays and even when they aren’t. As last year’s Rugby World Cup showed, French fans will bring the noise and that’s a major advantage.

France are in a pool with the USA, Samoa and Australia. All three of those teams can cause an upset on their day, but the Olympic hosts will likely progress through to the next round. If they do that, they’ll be hard to stop.

This time next week, Antoine Dupont will have a photo on his Instagram of an Olympic medal. Only time will tell as to what colour that medal is, but there’s every chance that it’s going to be gold which would be GOAT-worthy.

New Zealand women will bounce back from Madrid heartbreak

With time up on the clock and the scores level between Australia and New Zealand, Tia Hinds stepped up for a shot at history.

With a spot in the SVNS Series Championship Final up for grabs, the rest of the Australian players couldn’t quite watch – but they couldn’t bring themselves to look away either. Most of the team grouped together, except for captain Charlotte Caslick.

Caslick sat on her haunches about five metres away from the young playmaker from Sydney. With the Spanish sun beaming down into the Civitas Metropolitano back in June, Hinds stepped in, struck the ball and almost immediately threw her hands in the air.

Australia went on to win the SVNS Series overall title while League Winners New Zealand were left to rue what could’ve been. They appeared home and hosed after a powerful Portia Woodman-Wickliffe try but two minutes is an eternity in sevens.

For 12 minutes, New Zealand were the best team in women’s sevens, but that two-try blitz from Australia was good enough to see them snatch that crown. It’s been almost two months since that afternoon in Madrid, which has given the Kiwis plenty to think about.

New Zealand will be hungry for revenge and they have the team to claim it. Jorja Miller and Risi Pouri-Lane are some of the best young players in the world at the moment, and then there’s the experience of Woodman-Wickliffe, Michaela Blyde and Tyla King.

Don’t forget about captain Sarah Hirini who is set to return after recovering from a knee injury. All of those superstars together make up a formidable force, and it’ll be tough for any team to get in their way once they get going.

New Zealand will take home gold in Paris, while Australia will in all likelihood finish with silver after what would be a blockbuster playoff between the two great rivals.

Fiji will miss out on a men’s Olympic medal for the first time

That title and the following prediction is almost hard to write.

Fiji are everybody’s ‘second team.’ That’s not a term you’ll catch this writer using very often, but in the world of rugby sevens, it’s true. It’s the way they throw the ball around and the enjoyment they play with that make them so likeable.

But that doesn’t necessarily make you a contender.

Under former coach Ben Gollings, the Fijians were quite disappointing on the SVNS Series. Fiji finished third in Cape Town last December but were otherwise well off the pace, including uncharacteristically poor finishes in Vancouver and LA.

2016 Olympic gold medallist Osea Kolinisau couldn’t bring an end to their frustrating season after coming in, with Fiji failing to qualify for the quarter-finals in Singapore. But they were better at the Grand Final event, it must be said.

Fiji went down swinging in Madrid’s third-place playoff against traditional foe New Zealand. It showed they can compete with the big dogs in sevens, but with an Olympic gold up for grabs, it’s hard to gauge whether that pressure might be too much for this team.

The gut feeling is that it might be.

France, Argentina, New Zealand, Ireland and even Australia are more likely to medal at the Paris Games, but that’s not to say that Fiji won’t – it just seems unlikely for the two-time defending Olympic gold medallists.

Canada, France or the USA will cause a big upset

In women’s rugby sevens, Australia and New Zealand have long reigned supreme.

Ireland stunned everyone by beating the Aussie in the Perth Cup Final in January, but the women in green haven’t come close to repeating that feat since. Instead, other teams have improved tournament-to-tournament and they’ll want that all worthwhile.

Canada and France, in particular, will both be gunning for a spot on the podium. Both teams beat Australia and New Zealand on the SVNS Series, and they’ll take plenty of confidence out of those victories going into the big one.

The Canadians appear to be especially on song after beating the New Zealanders in Madrid. That feat backed up the efforts of their 15s team who beat the Kiwis in Christchurch only a couple of weeks earlier.

But once again, France are playing at home.

For some of the same reasons that were discussed above with Dupont, the French women’s side will have thousands of fans in their corner. That makes them dangerous – it’ll prove to be an intimidating atmosphere for all while it makes the French stronger.

One moment from the SVNS season which was never reported must be discussed. After losing to Australia in a thriller, the French women sat in a stairwell and let’s just say they weren’t happy to have been beaten by a team many would have considered the favourites.

I know because I tried walking down that stairwell before awkwardly walking away.

With that true competitor mindset, France will challenge for silver at least. Canada won’t be too far behind, and the USA could throw a spanner in the works by beating any of the other teams mentioned in this passage.

Mark Nawaqanitawase and Corey Toole could prove the difference

Former Wallabies captain Michael Hooper will not play the Paris Olympics. The legendary backrower played at two SVNS events this season but, unfortunately, didn’t make the final cut for the Games.

Instead, coach John Manenti has called on former Wallabies winger Mark Nawaqanitawase and ACT Brumbies flyer Corey Toole to bolster their ranks. Both men have a background in sevens, and what they bring to this team is so significant it’s not funny.

‘Marky Mark’ is a former Waratah and Wallaby who is off to the NRL later this year. The winger has signed with the Sydney Roosters, but before making the switch to rugby’s rival code, will represent Australia at the Games.

Nawaqanitawase played the 2022 Birmingham Commonwealth Games and more recently played a bit of sevens against the Fijian boys in Fiji. As coach Manenti discussed at a press conference a few weeks ago, the recruit could be a major asset.

Restarts are so important in sevens and with Nawaqanitawase’s ariel ability and height, winning back the ball off kick-offs will be key. If the Aussies can do that before getting the ball wide to the likes of Henry Hutchison, Dietrich Roache and Corey Toole, then watch out.

Toole is a Wallaby-in-waiting. In all likelihood, if Toole wasn’t playing at the Olympics, the speedster would’ve debuted in Wallaby gold against either Wales or Georgia this month.

The combination of Nawaqanitawase and Toole, and also the more established players within the sevens environment, makes the Aussies a genuine dark horse to not just medal but take home gold as well.

Portia Woodman-Wickliffe will be a flag bearer for New Zealand

After helping New Zealand win gold at the postponed Tokyo Games three years ago, captain Sarah Hirini was named as flag bearer for New Zealand. It was a perfect end to a history-making week for the Kiwis.

If the New Zealanders are successful in their bid to go back-to-back on the Olympic stage, then Portia Woodman-Wickliffe will be awarded the very same honour. The retiring great is stepping away from sevens after the Games, so this would be a perfect way to send her off.

Woodman-Wickliffe is the GOAT. Certainly, in women’s sevens or even if you include 15s as well, there is no one who has had more impact as a true pioneer for the growth of the game. But her stellar career will be over by this time next week.

With Tyla King also retiring, the Kiwis have plenty of motivation to get the job done. As predicted above, if they bounce back after the heartbreak of Madrid to claim that sought-after gold, then Woodman-Wickliffe will be a flag bearer.

It’ll be a well-deserved moment for a legend of New Zealand sport.

Ireland’s knockout curse will strike again at Stade de France

Last year at Stade de France, about 60,000 Irish fans sang ‘Zombie’ over and over and over, with the tune of that catchy song echoing throughout the 80,000-capacity Stade de France. Ireland had just beaten South Africa and believed they could go all the way.

But a couple of weeks later, the quarter-final happened.

Yep, another quarter-final.

Sam Whitelock was the hero for the All Blacks as the veteran lock secured a last-minute turnover to secure the win. New Zealand marched on as the Irish were left to reflect with their unbeaten run coming to an unfortunate end at the worst time.

On the SVNS Series this year, there was a similar pattern. Ireland finished second overall after only making one Cup Final, which was the final regular season event of the year in Singapore against New Zealand – which the All Blacks Sevens won.

Ireland struggled to win semi-final matches and that will likely happen again in Paris, should they get that far. The point is that Ireland’s lack of consistency in big games will come back to haunt them once again.

The Irish will miss out on a men’s medal completely. France, Argentina and New Zealand appear the more likely of the men’s sides to push on for that Olympic honour.