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'They would be the favourites': John Eales' assessment of wide open RWC
By AAP
John Eales knows what it takes to win a Rugby World Cup but the former Wallabies skipper says who will take this year’s title in France is anyone’s guess.
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The tournament will open with a bang on Saturday (AEST) in Paris, with hosts France taking on New Zealand to kick-off a 40-match pool phase that will be played out in nine host cities across the country.
A draw based on rankings back in 2020 means the tournament has a skewed look: three of the current top-five teams – world No.1 Ireland, South Africa and Scotland – find themselves in the same pool, with only two able to advance.
It also means only two of the game’s top-four ranked teams in Ireland, New Zealand, the defending champion Springboks and France, can make the semi-finals.
Having fallen to a world ranking of ninth, Australia are on the “easy” side of the draw, facing Pool C clashes against seventh-ranked Fiji, Wales (10th), Georgia (11th) and Portugal (16th).
The top two will likely take on Argentina or 2019 finalists England from Pool D in the quarter-finals.
Eales, who steered Australia to World Cup glory in Wales in 1999, didn’t discount the Wallabies’ hopes of an upset victory despite their poor recent form, but predicted the winner would come from the other side of the draw.
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“If you look at the teams on that side only two get through (to the semi-finals),” Eales told AAP.
“You’d have to say that of the two teams that get through from that side, they would be the favourites on current form to get through to the final.
“But to do that they’ve got to win a World Cup semi-final in a one-off game that could be against Australia, Argentina, England, Fiji, Wales or Japan – and any of those teams could beat one of those other teams on the day.”
Eales said the fluctuations in rankings, form and some surprise Test results mean the tournament is there for the taking.
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Hosts France, the current world No.3, have appeared in three finals in the tournament’s 36-year history but never won the Webb Ellis Cup, while top-ranked Ireland have never made it past the quarter-finals.
The Springboks won their third title in Japan in 2019, while New Zealand have also been crowned world champions three times.
The Wallabies have won twice, the last time back in 1999, finished runners-up twice and never missed the quarter-finals.
“It’s just so open – and for the first time ever at a World Cup you would say that it doesn’t matter if you finish first or second in your pool,” Eales said.
“For instance, France and New Zealand are in the same pool but in the quarters they’re likely to play South Africa or Ireland – who would you rather play out of those two teams?
“You know you’re in for an incredibly tough game whichever one of those two teams you’re facing.”
Eales picked world No.5 Scotland, in Pool B alongside Ireland and South Africa as a smoky.
“People aren’t talking about Scotland a lot, but Scotland can beat any of those teams,” he said.
“If they were on Australia’s side of the draw they’d probably be the favourites on our side with how well they’ve been playing.”
"It also means only two of the game’s top-four ranked teams in Ireland, New Zealand, the defending champion Springboks and France, can make the semi-finals."
Maybe a moot point but I think it would be more accurate to say "only two of the game's top-five ranked teams..." The same people who continually refer to pool B as "the pool of death" repeatedly state that only two of the world's top four teams can make the semis. Which one is it?
Come on Scotland!
Dave Rennie had more wins..Eddie has ZERO
One issue will be time off between tough matches. Another injuries and red cards.
I.e. Who has the most depth?
Good article. Very tough pools on the one side. Nervous 😁 the first game is going to be crucial.
It really isn't, cannot see France or NZ beaten by Italy. Although this is a weakened Allblack team with three key forwards out that will all definitely start the quarter along with Jordie so France if they're going to win the cup would really be struggling if they don't beat this team missing Retallick, Lomax, Frizzell and Jordie Barrett.
Good to see an astute judge like Eales recognising just how good this current Scotland team is. They looked great against France. Just such a tough group they're in. But all the talk about whether we (NZ) will play Ireland or SA in the quarters is definitely premature. Not just from their pool. Get a red card and/or another key injury against Italy and we'd definitely be making life tough for ourselves.
How many pool games have the Allblacks lost at RWC?
The answer is none.
Pressure does funny things to people though and the loser of the game between the Allblacks and France will need to play their number one side against Italy to ensure there's no drama.
Italy's not at Argentina's level and no sign they will be anytime soon.
Italy going through is incredibly unlikely but if anyone going to lose the plot it would be France if they unravel against the Allblacks.
Everyone's talking up Dupont as some sort of mythical creature when last time I checked he's well under six foot and 90kg.
Being realistic, losing to Italy would be the biggest upset in history, it just won't happen even with 14 men
Yes but that's a big advantage. The scots can be great backs against the wall. Be great to see them come through