How England can beat South Africa – Andy Goode

England are rightly significant underdogs against South Africa but they were four years ago as well against New Zealand in the semi-final and they have to believe an equally special performance is within them.

A lot of the talk this week has been about what happened in the final in 2019 against the Springboks and how England underperformed but I think it’s the semi-final everyone should be harking back to and remembering how they upset the odds.

Of course, that England side had lost just two games all year and looked in better shape than this one to the outside world but they’d had a bad period in 2018 and weren’t expected to overturn the All Blacks, far from it.

That performance in Yokohama remains probably the best from an England team over the past couple of decades and there have maybe been too many comparisons back to that day in this four-year cycle but now is the time to draw on the memories of that victory over New Zealand.

As many as 13 of today’s match day 23 played in that one and the muscle memory is there to do it again, with youth and potentially game-changing impacts from the likes of Ben Earl, George Martin, Freddie Steward and others to add into the mix now as well.

The problem is there are plenty of South Africans still knocking around who were there four years ago as well and they have gone from strength to strength. Nobody is under any illusions as to the size of the task but England have to believe they have another Yokohama-esque semi-final in them.

There are major differences in style between the 2019 All Blacks and 2023 Springboks and the game plan won’t be the same but England have to bring a level of physicality that we haven’t seen from them before they even get started with tactics.

Steve Borthwick’s team selection reflects that, particularly with Martin coming in for Ollie Chessum, who hasn’t done much wrong. They’re both of a similar physical stature but you definitely get a bit more dominance in collisions from Martin, whereas Chessum excels in other areas.

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The set piece fell apart in the final in Japan and that has to be on point and then the likes of Earl and Tom Curry will have to have a hell of a day at the breakdown and be allowed to by Ben O’Keeffe.

Joe Marler was a part of that struggling England scrum, albeit off the bench four years ago, and I think the decision to start him has as much to do with the impact of others coming on in the second half as anything else.

We’ve seen it from South Africa for years with the ‘bomb squad’ or replacements sometimes better than the players they’re coming on for and the expectation will be that Ellis Genge is more destructive than ever when he does enter the field.

I do think that is where the Springboks could have the biggest edge though. Their starting XV is better on paper as well but, while it may not be the stereotypical forward-heavy bomb squad, the ability to bring the scrummaging power of Ox Nche, the size of RG Snyman, the work rate of Kwagga Smith, the organisation of Faf de Klerk, the game management and kicking of Handre Pollard and the nous of Willie le Roux on is ridiculous.

Ollie Lawrence has made big impacts off the bench in attack and defence during this tournament and Billy Vunipola, Danny Care and George Ford have experience in abundance and no lack of quality but there is a gulf.

We know England are going to kick the leather off the ball and that’s the right thing to do against South Africa but they have to be smart with their kicking game as anything even slightly loose and Cheslin Kolbe, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Damian Willemse will tear them to shreds.

As usual, Borthwick will want his men to rack up the kicking metes and win the territory battle, whilst utilising the boot to give his forwards as much of a breather as possible, but we should see more contestable kicks than ever.

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Kolbe and Arendse have shown themselves to be more than adept aerially, and the Boks certainly got the better of France in the air last week, but they are still giving up a number of inches against the likes of Steward and Jonny May.

We’ll never know whether Marcus Smith would have started had it not been for his concussion and I’d like to think that Steward would have come in for May on the wing instead had the Quins man been fit but the reality is this may well have been the side Borthwick would’ve picked anyway.

Now the chosen ones have to go out and put in the sort of 80-minute performance we haven’t seen from them in a long time. They beat the Boks a couple of years ago at Twickenham and Ireland have shown them the template for how to do it at this tournament so it obviously isn’t beyond the realms of possibility by any means.

South Africa had the oldest squad going into this tournament, while England had the most caps, and experience counts at major tournaments. Both have around 900 caps in their starting XV and there is almost nothing to choose between them in the experience stakes.

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England need to draw on the positive experience of their semi-final four years ago though, rather than the disappointment of the final, and you just never know what might happen.

It could be the last meaningful game at a World Cup and maybe even in an England shirt for the likes of Jamie George, Dan Cole, Courtney Lawes, Manu Tuilagi, Owen Farrell, Elliot Daly, Kyle Sinckler, May, Marler, Care, Ford, Vunipola and desperate men are dangerous.

Nobody is expecting them to win, my heart says England by a couple but my head says South Africa by 15, and that combined with a concoction of desperation, experience and nous means the dream of another performance for the ages like the one at this stage of the tournament against the All Blacks four years ago is still alive.