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Good luck in the final against the All Blacks
By Ben Smith
Either the Springboks or All Blacks will claim a record fourth Rugby World Cup title in Paris on Saturday night, but this time the context is different.
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Some would say it shows nothing has changed in terms of the world order, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. As the All Blacks know very well from history, the best team doesn’t always win the title and in 2023 that will be the case.
For the first time in Rugby World Cup history the two nations with the highest win rates over the last four years were bundled out before the semi-finals in Ireland and France.
That was always possible but at the same time was less probable. It took two incredible performances from South Africa and New Zealand to do it.
Whilst both deserve to be in the final, the bigger picture now is that international rugby has far more competitiveness at the top end which is a positive.
The quarter-finals were a grand showing of how good the game can be when played by the top four. In 2024 France and Ireland will still be formidable.
The All Blacks will be far weaker and will perhaps be rebuilding for the first time ever. As Springboks can play overseas, it remains to be seen how many will retire from the international game.
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For the All Blacks, who are no longer the undisputed winning machine they once were, having three genuine rivals to their supremacy has been a different experience.
Should they defeat the Springboks in the final, this would genuinely be the greatest World Cup victory in their history. But at the same time, it does not suddenly restore their former status. Those two things can be true at the same time.
What would make this one the greatest is the uncertainty surrounding the run and that they came in as the third or fourth best side. Expectations were set very low after their performances through the four year period.
They have never entered a World Cup with two nations clearly above them. They still haven’t beat France under Ian Foster and still sport a losing record against Ireland even after the quarter-final win. The record is square with South Africa with three wins each.
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The Springboks winning the title going back-to-back would be a significant achievement. This would also be the Springboks’ greatest World Cup victory.
Never before have they had as tough a run. They would have defeated four of the other top five opponents losing only to Ireland.
They would become the second nation to repeat after New Zealand in 2015. But the difference between those sides is stark. South Africa has not achieved anything near what the All Blacks did from 2011-2015 and comparisons are not possible.
How much is left in the tank for South Africa, both in terms of energy and luck.
We’ve seen the tears from the players after each knock-out victory and the outpouring of emotion from the coaches after each rollercoaster result, which was on the brink multiple times.
Will Eben Etzebeth get away with a one-hand bat down with no intent to catch the ball a metre from his own line to prevent a certain try?
Will Kurt-Lee Arendse get away with batting the ball dead with one-hand in the in-goal with no intent to ground it?
Will Deon Fourie escape with not rolling away from the ruck and obstructing the ball with a minute left in the game?
It all comes down to interpretation and with another set of more experienced eyes those situations could be seen very differently.
How many times can you mount comebacks in the final 15 minutes to win in the most dramatic fashion?
Down 25-19 against France with 15 minutes remaining the probability of South Africa winning based on all historical data was as low as 18 per cent. Against England it was similar.
No one expected South Africa to win convincingly against France. That was always going to be a titanic battle. But against England they were expected to win handsomely and it took a great escape down 15-6 with 15 minutes remaining.
But at some point the luck runs out and you can’t escape your average over the long run.
If South Africa loses the final, they would end up three from five against the tier one opponents during this World Cup.
At 60 per cent, this is roughly where they have been for the last three years. In 2021 and 2022 they finished 8-5 at a 61.5 per cent winning rate.
Good luck in the final against the All Blacks.
Hopefully for the Springboks case it hasn’t run out or you will end up where you’ve always been.
So funny and satisfying reading Ben's insightful articles from time to time…..not much to say these days Ben…..what's up buddy….cat got your tung…..😆
Ben, calling Ben, are you there. So looking forward to your next article.
Ben do us all a big favour and take a nice long bath with your toaster this evening.
Amazing how editors allow journalistic bias to consistently seep into Ben Smith’s articles. Wonder if it has anything to do with the ownership of Rugbypass? World Rugby would never…
That said, at least there are some sane and respectful comments ~ <10% probably, but I like seeing there are still those out there that appreciate the rivalry. Go Bokke, best of luck to ABs.
I agree that Ben's articles are weak. But I can't get how thinskinned the south Africans are and how easily they get offended when often there's nothing to be offended by.
Bloody hell, sober up man.
Yes Pecos, yes you do. What can I say? You complete me…❤️🥰
I really am living rent free in your head, aren’t I lol?
Jesus Ben is dumb - newsflash Einstein: you don’t have to have any intention to catch the ball if you knock it backwards. Aren't you supposed to be a rugby journalist?
Is this guy for real when larkum ,gregan,finnegin ,campese, eales ,kefu, great players who all beat the ABs in the last moments of the game GREAT TEAMS DO THAT FOOL it took us years to beat them shit they were good . Im backing the ABs hard ,but cant listen to this moaning mummy mummy ,weasil word inuendo , coulda been , shoulda been , have some grace man the expected winner won period let the bone go dog . you probably know suzie s number ,right
The Boks will be fine, Benjamina.
Just fine.
My mother's name is Wilhelmina, so I had a proper good old chuckle here 😄
Seriously, this guy is chasing me away from this site. Did he even play rugby?
I absolutely love how people think they see things on a screen that a ref on the field, TMOs, cameras don’t see or pick up. Everyone thinks they’re Clive Woodward. Instead of listening to (and being like) Nigel Owens.
Anywho.
Id like to know which Kant doesn’t check Ben’s articles before they go out. They’re piss poor and only makes this site look desperate for content.
And lastly, the anti springbok vibe is plain ridiculous. Please find me one article that vilifies, bad mouths or just plain incites against another team as much as there are articles like this about the boks?
What’s the deal here Rugbypoes? Is it just a clickbait play or are you just journalistically incompetent?
I wonder if I’ll lose my Master Fan badge now.
Poor little Benny is nervous again 😂
What is your point Ben. Ffs what is your point?
Wit Kant?
Ben - you cant hide your bias can you? Sad but only to be expected.
What is your intent? To be Matt Williams Mini-Wannabe?
It appears he lost his therapists address again.
Ben is a troll and South Africans more often than not takes the bait, but we have been very very lucky…
That’s sport.
I can understand that supporters can post infantile comments and try and get under the skin of the opposing supporters. What I don’t understand is that a “journalist” can actually post things like this. I am not sure if this guy actually is a real journalist. This type of reporting is so immature that it is actually sad. Can someone at Rugbypass not help him and teach him some basics of journalism etc.? This is probably a consequence of the times we live in where any person with a cellphone and a laptop can become an “influencer” and a “journalist”.
“Will Eben Etzebeth get away with a one-hand bat down with no intent to catch the ball a metre from his own line to prevent a certain try?
Will Kurt-Lee Arendse get away with batting the ball dead with one-hand in the in-goal with no intent to ground it?
Will Deon Fourie escape with not rolling away from the ruck and obstructing the ball with a minute left in the game?”
Eh …. will the ref allow you to foul several times in the ruck over 37 attack phases and then penalise your opponents?
Go back to Ireland. You lost!!
Get over it Turlough. Score won’t change. Move in
I'm a kiwi but this guy is a trolling baiter. Pay no attention SA fans, dont be goaded, good luck in the final
Thanks Liam, He really does get under our skin but then again I think that’s what He enjoys doing 😂 yeah Good Luck to you guys too, I hope it’s a cracker, either way, history will be made!
Generally I agree with old Ben here but I have ONE question for RugbyPass and the journalists writing for them…it appears they all like to point out what the Boks got away with in terms of referee calls, I’m curious after their “in depth” analysis of these games it seems that the referee never misses anything that should be in the Boks favour 🤔 so the “good” news for the Boks is that the refs are never making bad calls when it comes to them…according to the journalism that is 🤷♂️
I'm wondering if the bokkie props will get away with boring in and pushing sideways like how they won against England. Wtf was that? Don't the bunker have acres to spider cam at scrum time?
If you think you can use a spider cam to judge a scrum you don’t know jack about rugby. Go listen to David Flatman's explanation on Twitter- he will break it down for a simpleton like yourself. Or listen to the rugby pod, where ex English professionals say he got that call 100% right. What do they know compared to Poe thought right?
Maybe
Knee on ground is what did it Poo
Boks beware here, NZ know how to give Barnes this picture.
Sideways boring in? - mate change your TV clearly broken
Genge knee went onto the ground. Cannot get more clear than that friend
Ben you should apply for a job at Virgin Media and join f face Matt Williams you make a good pair.
Benjie Smurf the little dog that solves crimes and points his little paw in the direction of the nasty saffer misdeeds that 25 referees said were not misdeeds. New Zealand needs to upgrade their police force.
If they prevail on Saturday, SA will have won 4 of 8 RWC tournaments (50%). Also they will have kept their record intact of never having lost an RWC final, including 1995.
Of course if that were to happen we would be subjected to decades of unfounded conspiracy theories, along with the usual ref blaming, and a fair amount of commentary about what is “good for the game”.
BTW - Does anyone know if NZ are planning on staying onside at the rucks, and not obstructing players around the breakdown?
Wayne Barnes is referee-ing so that would be a NO!
I assume Rassie and co. will be all over Barnes and have SA players well drilled (Ireland didn’t).
Oh, Ben, my boy, we Saffas have a secret weapon up our sleeve, haven’t you heard? We plan on playing our sixteenth man on the field. I’m not talking about the ref; we don’t need him. I’m talking about our main boy, Scott Barret. We all know he’s gonna do something stupid and go off the field to give us the advantage. Why rely on luck when our main man, Scotty, is so reliable?
Go the All Blacks
Where is this writer Ben Smith from then? Please don’t tell me he’s a kiwi…..
He’s been in France too long. Not good Journalism
He is.
He writes like one.
That you persist to submit articles in the face of constant rejection of your infantile opinion pieces is, in a way, admirable. Your trash talking ended with “or you will end up where you’ve always been.”
Do you understand that you are talking about the current World Champions? Are you suggesting that even if the Bok's luck runs out they will still retain their title.
You need to go on a writing course.
Pop your head up after the final and write an article about what happened rather than what you have been dreaming about. Your bigoted, one-sided reporting is not fit for a Facebook fan page.
Well written Diarmid exposing the error at the centre of his diatribe. Your last line is a tad angry, but mitigation comes from residual anger from the missing U in your name.
Watter kant is Ben?
Hahahahaha good one !!!
What a rubbish article. It’s going to be a cracker of a final between the two best rugby nations in the world and with huge respect on both sides. Bring it on….
Historically the two best. The best team does not always win a world cup. Were SA to win they would certainly deserve it though.
As said previously, the ABs have and will always be our most respected( a strange word for Ben) rugby opponent. That will never change. Witness the tears from a man like Pieter Steph a few years back when we beat them in Wellington. The ABs are our Everest. Witness a pick up game between kids in the rural areas of SA, and they split themselves as Boks vs ABs. Ben would never understand this.
Thanks Gerald massive respect here from an AB fan in the other direction. The other countries don’t get it, we are like brothers who fight all the time but love each other afterwards. Both nations are rugby mad, both have incredible histories on the field. Can’t wait for the huge game this weekend.
Bitter Benny at his worst, cannot and will not ever give SA credit, luckily we dont need it from him, just surprised he gets paid for this ongoing drivel
The thing is, as a Safa we have huge respect of the AB’s and win or loose the respect will be there and it will be one outstanding rugby game. This troll of a hack writer just shows no class or respect to both sides. Rassie summed her up perfectly. Good luck to both teams this weekend! Going to be epic!
🤣
Chat to any New Zealander over here, they all have immense respect for the Springboks, the tradition and the rivalry. They hate to lose to us, as much as we hate to lose to them, and they still measure themselves against us, we are the yardstick.
But some of these writers and “ex-spelers”… My oh my…