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'I don't understand why people are not picking Ireland': Cohesion expert on RWC favourites
By Ned Lester
For a team that has beaten every major rival and claimed the World No 1 ranking over the past 14 months, Ireland are flying under the radar as far as expectations are concerned for the Rugby World Cup.
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While unbeaten since game one of the New Zealand tour last July, Andy Farrell’s team have been given just a 46% chance of topping their pool in the World Cup by fans using the RugbyPass Road to the Final predictor.
It is indeed an incredibly competitive pool the Irish find themselves in, with fellow top-five ranked teams South Africa and Scotland along with Tonga and Romania to play. Even recently retired Scotland fullback, Stuart Hogg picked his homeland to miss the quarter-finals with the Springboks topping the pool.
However, former Wallaby Ben Darwin begs to differ. The prop is the General Manager of Gain Line Analytics, a company that has developed a methodology for success based on cohesion factors and consults teams across the globe on selections.
“We believe there’s a misunderstanding about how teams work,” Darwin explained on the Aotearoa Rugby Pod. “That the driver of success is not actually the individual skill of a team, but more around the collective understanding.
“Whether that be interpersonal understanding, system understanding, role understanding.”
Darwin pointed to international teams being successful with combinations that have thrived at club level as an example of interpersonal understanding, and changing coaches who want to implement unfamiliar structures as an example of poor system understanding.
“What we’re saying is, the individual skill factor might make two or three per cent difference, we find cohesion can make up to 80 per cent differential.”
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The methodology has proven successful in reflecting the results of previous World Cups, with no team ever lifting the Webb Ellis Cup without being top three in the cohesion metrics.
So, what is Darwin’s prediction for this World Cup?
“I don’t understand why people are not picking Ireland to win the World Cup.
“They’re the best team in the world. They’ve been the most accurate, they’ve been the most consistent.
“I think people are going for what’s happened before with them, and Ireland’s been growing now, basically in their performance for the past 25 years.
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“But, if you look at it as they are a reasonably cohesive team, it means between the World Cups they’re at their peak and it looks like they sort of fall away. But it was also to do with other countries peaking.
“I just think, the way they’re built at the moment if things go right for them and right for everyone else, they’ll win it. I think things have to go badly wrong for them and significantly right for other people for them to fall short.
“I think it will be Ireland over New Zealand in the final.”
Ireland begin their World Cup campaign against Romania this weekend, boosted by the return of captain Johnny Sexton.
Sexton and his men will face South Africa and Scotland in the final weeks of pool play in two Tests that could conceivably be a final preview.
While the return of their influential captain is critical to Ireland’s World Cup ambitions, Darwin looked elsewhere when naming who will be the best player of the tournament.
“I’m going to give you two answers, I think Aaron Smith will be voted as the best player in the world but I think the best player in the tournament is Tadgh Furlong.
“We never get voted Player of the Match for anything, tight-heads never get recognised but Furlong’s easily the best player in the world right now.”
sorry skill is way more important how many tries are butchered because of stupid miracle passes or knock ons when the pass is good when the level goes up pressure is up its skill that gives you time to catch that up and under no problem even the great aarron smith passed the ball to no one the other day when sometimes he can thread it thru a forest of players the skill to beat the faster guy by in and away just to get the outside edge these are just the minimum even tighties can do it the skill to run thru tacklers because of your timing and angle these are what make some great individual moments and players you must have exceptional skill first na hes wrong the all blacks have many times come to the world cup hot favs well no1 in the world and have had their ass handed to them by france australia and they had beaten them by 50 points previously world cup man your shit dont mean shit i watched the pod you grossly underestimate skill
TWI is just a marketing/copywrite name for good old team work. You grossly underestimate team work in all of your examples.
The Irish if they had to win a one off game last year had the potential to defeat anyone. The Allblacks were just resurfacing from their lockdowns and had their worst ever coach without any idea or support. But this is 2023 and Foster has two incredibly talented 'assistant' coaches and the following problems will stall the very brilliant Irish.
1. Sexton is 4 years older than 2019, he was too old then and failed to fire.
2. Ireland has poor depth and is highly exposed to an injury. This is shown by the halfback, Aki, Lowe, etc, all imports.
3. They're over relying on their performance in NZ to gauge their chances.
Finally and most crucially the Irish lack the ability to withstand the power game, the physicality the other teams will bring at RWC.
Argentina tore them apart in 2015, NZ did likewise in 2019. We don't know who will do it this year but it will happen. Ireland will have a couple of key forwards injured or injured during the quarter final game and that will be that.
Most of the Irish team are irish born only 4 players were born maybe 5 outside Of Ireland we don't mostly rely on imports.
Did you watch the 6 nations game this year against Scotland when Ireland got at least 3 injuries had a prop cover hooker shame Cian Healy is injured, van de flier threw in at lineout and we still beat the scots with the depth we had.
Highly recommend everyone listens to the interview on Aotearoa Rugby Pod.
yes accurate and consistent - lets see if they can do it for 7 weeks -under RWC pressure
Ireland have never gone past the quarters & everyone knows pre tournament ranking & favouritism based on results outside the white hot cauldron of the RWC knockout phase, is irrelevant.
So their previous exits are irrelevant as well then. You can't have it both ways
Huh, don’t know what all that gobbledegook was about. All I know is IRE is the team to beat. Antoine DuPont is the best player at this tournament, period. The winner of this tournament is either IRE, FRE or SA. Regardless if it’s SA or IRE that the All Blacks meet in the QF it’ll be the end of the road for them. Based on all the teams performances this past year, period. There - was that so hard to say in English?
This article does an awful job of putting his point across, but check out how he explains it in Aotearoa Rugby Pod, it’s very interesting.
Irrespective of whether SA meet France or NZ in the quarters, that'll be as far as they go this year. That's of course assuming neutral, consistent officiating which hasn't been the case for the past 30 odd years.