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If the All Blacks can’t scrummage, they can’t win
If you can’t scrummage, you can’t win.
I know that’s not sexy.
I know we’re meant to waffle on about Plan Bs and skill-execution, in the wake of the All Blacks’ humbling defeat to South Africa at Twickenham.
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We’re meant to lament referees and TMOs and wonder aloud about who might dominate the Rugby World Cup.
But the bald facts are that if your set-pieces are no good and your tight five gets towelled up, there’s not a lot else you can do to be competitive.
Losing 35-7 to the Springboks wasn’t good. Equally, the game doesn’t count. It’s a friendly, a marketing exercise, a tune up.
I’ve worked on the basis of credit where it’s due with the All Blacks this season.
There was nothing creditable about their performance against South Africa and that’s on the locks and front row.
If they’re no good, the loose forwards are no good. If your scrum and lineout are under pressure, your backs are left to scramble.
The thing that’s earned the All Blacks praise this year has been their physicality.
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The tight five hasn’t been pushed around too often. Teams haven’t had their way with New Zealand at ruck and maul time.
There has, instead, been a ferocity from the All Blacks at collision time that’s created a platform from which the loose forwards – and everyone else – could play.
It would be easy to pick holes in Saturday’s loose trio. To wonder about the option-taking of Aaron Smith and Richie Mo’unga.
I mean, an up-and-under from an attacking lineout on the opposition 22 probably is a low point for All Blacks playmaking.
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But that’s all down to the dudes up front, not necessarily Smith, who was the culprit on that occasion.
I could go through guys in the backline who made bad decisions or didn’t cope with South Africa’s defensive pressure.
Again, that’s on the boys in jumpers one to five.
If this was the pattern of the season, if the All Blacks had been bullied all year, then I’d be pessimistic about their Rugby World Cup prospects.
Sure, there’s a blueprint for beating New Zealand. We know that and the team knows that.
But, up until London last Saturday, they’d played with the vigour to combat the barrage of physicality and line speed everyone knows is coming.
If your scrum goes backwards or hits the deck repeatedly, you’re stuffed. Refs will ping you and your opponents will heap pressure on your playmakers.
The same applies if you can’t win clean lineout ball.
Prior to this season, I would’ve said the problems in the pack were endemic. That no matter how talented the team might be, it simply didn’t have the grunt to be competitive.
The All Blacks – in particular the tight five – have largely shown me otherwise this year.
It’s up to them to do the same again now.
I feel the ABs scrum is fine. They need to get Lomax back ASAP. I have watched the last game or two( we should exclude the Boks game as they were down to 7 and 6 for a large part), especially against t France, and felt Ethan was pinged unfairly. To be honest I thought he had the big man under pressure. What the ABs do need is ALL their big dogs on the field in the big games. Lomax, Codie, Ethan, would then have Scott and Brodie with Sam on bench. Issue still is make up of loosies but let’s have Cane and Ardie, and need to get Frizzell back on the park. Also need bench make up as good as can be. That pack will be ok in scrum, and should be competitive for 60 mins. Then they need bench to see it home. I say the above but am a Saffa through and through, but just feel the ABs and their make up in last few games has been bloody unlucky. They are going to still have a big say in the QF.
I have no doubt the ABS will bounce back and fix the things that went awry in this “friendly”. What I respect most about the team is that they play for 80 mins and usually they are better conditioned. So that friendly was a one off. The game is so tight now that I’d be surprised if any of the top 5 teams currently can replicate that eight games in a row. What’s going to be telling is how they perform against France in that tournament opener. I can’t wait. Let the games begin.
The worst thing about the ABs vs SA game is that every pundit in the world now feels the need to analyse it. Could the ABs have had any less to play for? The ABs forwards have had the better of the SA forwards in a majority of games they have played in this WC cycle. No one ever wrote the SA forwards off afterwards as not being able to scrummage, compete at the breakdown etc...
Let's save all the speculation until one of these teams is on the plan home.
Can Win Rugby World cup or Can't
The Wallabies scrum dominated France so the ABs should be okay against France at least.
It's a fairly obvious response to blame the tight 5 if your scrum's being penalised - and yes, they have to cop it. But if your loosies are outweighed by 35 kgs, then the scrum is going to suffer, and if the tallest loosie is 1.91 (against 2 metre Pieter - not to mention Ollivon to come) then your 3rd option in the line-out is also severely compromised. We can't keep going into these big games with these short, lightweight loosies. Yes, Frizzell is a huge loss, compounded by the ABs not taking another loosie like Finau, but what's done is done and Fossie has to accept that Big Frizz is not around and find some other options, to power up our loosies.
I sometimes wonder, do RSA peeps get to cry about 110Kg wings like Caleb Clarke [who actually KO'd, with knee to head both Faf & Kriel in successive tests], against 85Kg Arendse & Kolbe?
Can we also say how boring this 'Bash it up' winger play is, instead of the craft of Kolbe, like we have to listen to ad nauseum about our 'Just Big' bash it up forwards?
Glad someone has highlighted the scrum. If you concede a penalty every single time because the forwards are too weak you've got Buckley's chance of success. That was like a men's team against a high school 2nd. If they continue in that vein then it's all over come qf time.
Don't worry Toddy. Just read John and Greg's posts above here. It all fine. If they hadn't lost personnel they would have pumped the Boks - so there's absolutely nothing to worry about.
Yes if you can't scrummage with 6 against 8 and a 9th person heavily favouring the 8 you can't win a world cup.
I suggest you read Nick Bishop's piece dated August 29 and watch the clips carefully to understand why tha AB's were playing with a personnel shortage. If the AB's hadn't given away penalties by driving in too soon at the lineouts the Boks would have scored two more tries - evidence of that is in the clip where the AB play by the rules and don't drive i n and the Boks score a lineout maul try.
Keep believing it was only when the AB were short of personnel because they couldn't cope with the pressure of the first 15 minutes and made mistake after mistake. If enough Kiwis believe that and the coaches and players believe that heaven help the Kiwis going forward. I know enough about Razor to know that he would not tolerate excuses like that. He would have said. The Boks stuffed up our scrum. We had better do something about it. Not what you suggest - everything is just dandy we only got stuffed up because of a trigger happy ref. Good luck with that attitude.
For sure, having for nine minutes 13 players verse 15 hurt, and then for another 40 minutes 15 verses 14 sunk the game. ABs need to sharpen up on their discipline but equally some of the refs calls were hard to understand. As for 'Toddy' saying the ABs scrum was like a school boys 2nd 15 lacks any understanding of the pressure that comes from an 8 man push against either a 7 or 6 man scrum. ABs gave away 216 kg for 9 minutes and 111 kg for the other 40, that indeed creats massive pressure on the tight five...offering such a weight advantage for the SA. Again ABs need to sharpen up their discipline.
I remember watching the final in RWC 2019. Boks started pushing the England scrum around … I knew it was a lost game for England
The same scrum that a week earlier had pushed around the AB's. The AB's have absolutely nothing to worry about.