Ireland's Lions Watch report card: 13 in waiting

Fresh in the afterglow of Ciarán Frawley’s Kings Park drop goal heroics, I boldly stated that Ireland could end up with 20 selections in Andy Farrell’s British & Irish Lions squad. Ireland may have won three of their four November outings and finished the calendar year second in the world rankings, but 20 now seems like a stretch.

Ireland appear to be a team in tactical transition, despite a host of veterans remaining on with the senior squad and a relatively settled XV against heavyweight nations. Four players – Sam Prendergast, Cormac Izuchukwu, Gus McCarthy and Thomas Clarkson – made Test debuts as Ireland recovered from a chastening loss against New Zealand to defeat Argentina, Fiji and Australia.

The biggest change of all may be Andrew Goodman taking over as attack coach, from Mike Catt. Ireland may look more cohesive, and threatening, in attack by the time the Six Nations rolls around but they often lacked cutting edge against hard-pressing, abrasive defensive set-ups. The Irish lineout continues to misfire and was ruthlessly exposed by the All Blacks, no doubt causing coach Paul O’Connell sleepless nights.

Ireland’s best player of the November stretch was Josh van der Flier, with Robbie Henshaw, Andrew Porter and Bundee Aki not far behind. Caelan Doris did not have it all his own way, but never shrank from the challenge and got through mountains of work. For the games against Rugby Championship opponents, Farrell did not tinker too much with his starting XV. The biggest alteration came mid-way through the four games when Sam Prendergast took the 10 jersey from Jack Crowley. Ireland fans have found themselves pitched back into a Munster-Leinster joust for the starting outhalf role.

While it may appear, from the outside, that Farrell has given interim head coach Simon Easterby a hefty Six Nations selection nudge, he insists that is not the case. “When you guys feel like Jack has been dropped, he’s not,” Farrell declared. “And when you guys feel like he’s pissed off, he’s not.”

“No,” Farrell added. “It’s rotation that’s good for us in the moments when somebody has played a lot of rugby, not enough rugby, to freshen the team up.”

Fans may be concerned about Ireland’s high rate of penalties conceded, lineout glitches and handling errors, but new blood in the front row is positive. Clarkson had two outings, giving a good account of himself, while Gus McCarthy managed two tries and three try assists in 95 minutes of Test rugby. Players that have work to do, back with the provinces, ahead of the Six Nations include Finlay Bealham, James Lowe, Mack Hansen, Joe McCarthy, Iain Henderson and Peter O’Mahony. The Ireland bench fired against Fiji and Australia but were found lacking in the opening two games.

Taking Ireland’s November spin into consideration, along with how Scotland, England and Wales fared, their final Lions squad tally could end up in the mid to late teens. Let us start with the players that, heading into 2025, look good bets for Farrell’s squad to tour Down Under.

Lions in waiting (13)

Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Beirne, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris, Jamison Gibson-Park, James Lowe, Bundee Aki, Robbie Henshaw, Garry Ringrose and Hugo Keenan

From that bakers dozen, five strike me as likely starters for the Lions’ First Test. If they are all fitting fit, Porter, Sheehan, van der Flier, Doris and Gibson-Park should be in pole position to face off against the Wallabies on July 19.

Hooker Dan Sheehan scored two tries and might have had a hat-trick in a one-sided Ireland win (Photo Piaras Ó Mídheach/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

Van der Flier and Doris are two of the players that Farrell relies most upon. It was telling that when a journalist, on Saturday, began waxing lyrical about Fraser McReight and the Australian back-row, Farrell cut in with praise for his men, name-checking workhorse Tadhg Beirne in the process. Doris is older than Sam Warburton was when he took over as Wales captain, but both men have that calm demeanour, are extremely articulate, respectful of match officials and are born leaders by example.

Tadhg Furlong, we were told all month, was close to playing but ended up not seeing any action. The Wexford tighthead has nigh-on a decade at the Test furnace and Farrell’s faith to go off, but questions now arise about whether, at 32, his incredible powers are on the wane.

Eyebrows may have arched slightly at the inclusion of three centres – Aki, Henshaw and Ringrose – in my list of certain squad members. Understandable, particularly if you do not hail from the Emerald Isle. For Farrell and Ireland, though, the trio remain interchangeable and impactful. Sione Tuipulotu will travel and Owen Farrell may return to the international fold as a 10/12 but other centres will need outstanding Six Nations campaigns to force their way in.

Prowling (6)

Rónan Kelleher, James Ryan, Jack Conan, Craig Casey, Mack Hansen, Jamie Osborne

One could easily see each of this sextet on a squad list, next summer, without much of a stir. All have proven themselves against top sides, for Farrell, even if Osborne is near the start of his Test journey.

Kelleher remains a highly potent ball-carrying option and is a solid scrummager. The Ireland lineout continues to wobble, though. It is not all down to Kelleher but he needs to play a big part in finding the solution, as does Ryan. Hansen has resumed that handy knack of bagging tries, after a spell on the sidelines, while Casey did his cause wonders with a fine game against Fiji and a winning tempo-change against Australia.

Jack Conan celebrates Leinster winning a late penalty versus Northampton (Photo by Brendan Moran/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

Conan was having a fine start to the season until injury intervened just before the Test window. Farrell also name-checked him, on Saturday, and the Leinster back-row, who can play blindside and No.8, did tour with the Lions in 2021.

Outside shouts (6)

Sam Prendergast, Jack Crowley, Gus McCarthy, Cormac Izuchukwu, Ryan Baird, Ciarán Frawley

Baird was discussed as a 2021 bolter but Paul O’Connell, at the time, suggested the versatile Leinster forward needed to add more timber to his frame. Two months after that comment, O’Connell became Ireland’s forwards coach. Baird was looking set to inherit the No.6 jersey from Peter O’Mahony but Test rugby does not work that way. The 25-year-old not entirely convincing as a lineout caller, and leader, has seen Beirne switched from the second row to fill in at blindside. Baird needs a big few months to push his way into Lions conversations, but would be a handy bench option in a Test Series and would love those hard, Aussie decks.

Ireland's Sam Prendergast looks on from the sin bin last Saturday (Photo by Ben McShane/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

Prendergast and Crowley may be fortunate to get a remaining outhalf spot – surely Marcus Smith and Finn Russell are going – if one of them can nail down that Six Nations starting role. Izuchukwu and McCarthy both merit Lions coaches’ attention, when Farrell rounds up his scouting posse.

Frawley will feel he slipped back, but Farrell has banked those late drop goals, and his guts to call the plays, against South Africa.

Tour veterans? (5)

Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray, Iain Henderson, Cian Healy, Rob Herring

Farrell has shown, with Ireland, that he likes some seasoned pros around his apex predators and young cubs. It is improbable we will see any of this quintet touring Australia. Murray would be the best shout of the five, and a potential midweek captain and Test match closer.

Faint roars (10)

Stuart McCloskey, Calvin Nash, Dave Heffernan, Cian Prendergast, Nick Timoney, Jack Boyle, Thomas Clarkson, Jacob Stockdale, Tom O’Toole, Finlay Bealham