Make or break: A look at the first All Blacks squad of 2018

The first All Blacks squad of any year is one that generates significant hype and intrigue among supporters across New Zealand.

Interest is sparked throughout the rugby public about which players have earned the right to receive a debut call-up from Super Rugby, while the jostle for positions across the board creates debate around which, if any, established All Blacks have performed well enough to survive the cut.

This year is no different, and there is at least some degree of uncertainty in every position ahead of the team announcement this Sunday.

It is believed the squad will consist of 33 players, which will mean some incredibly tight calls will need to be made, and some big names are set to miss out against France next month.

The first of these tough selection tasks that Steve Hansen and his men must address first is the situation regarding their injury-plagued prop stocks, where there is a severe lack of depth.

Joe Moody’s appearance against the Waratahs on Saturday has been his only first-class appearance since dislocating his shoulder last September, followed by a broken finger upon his return from that injury at club level in Christchurch.

Even if he returns from suspension to play against the Chiefs in the Crusaders’ last match before the international break commences, he’s at risk of facing the French despite being severely underdone in terms of game time.

Owen Franks’ situation is better. After having returned from an Achilles problem three weeks ago against the Sunwolves, he’s started in every match since then, and there’s little evidence to suggest he won’t don the #3 jersey in the Crusaders’ next three outings.

Chiefs duo Kane Hames and Nepo Laulala were both regular starters for the All Blacks in 2017 in the absence of Moody and Franks, but both have had their Super Rugby campaigns thwarted by injury.

Hames is yet to take the field this year due to ongoing concussion concerns. The forecast is bright for Lauala though, who hasn’t been sighted since breaking his arm against the Blues back in March. He’s been named in the Chiefs’ side to face the Stormers in Cape Town this weekend, although whether he’ll be ready for test rugby so soon after a big injury lay-off is questionable.

Teammate Atu Moli played against the French XV on the All Blacks’ end-of-year tour last year, but a thigh injury means he also hasn’t taken the field for the Chiefs this year.

Continue reading below

Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Jeff Toomaga-Allen, and Tim Perry – aside from a knock sustained against the Brumbies a few weeks back – loom as the only props with international experience that have been largely unaffected by injury this year.

That’s quite a dip into the depths of the New Zealand talent pool, considering that if Hames and Laulala both been fit and available for selection, the involvement of Toomaga-Allen and Perry would have been very unlikely.

Some have called for the inclusion of recently-retired veteran Wyatt Crockett to provide cover until the likes of Hames and Laulala complete their recoveries. That could prove to be misguided though, as this predicament presents itself as a chance to continue to build depth leading into next year’s World Cup.

There may be difficulty in selecting a total of six props, the usual number taken for the position, but taking only five would be a blessing in disguise. Not only would it increase international exposure to Toomaga-Allen and Perry, but it would also free up room elsewhere in the team in more congested areas.

Starting Moody and Franks throughout the series would seem like the logical approach, as would utilising Tu’ungafasi off the bench as either a loosehead or tighthead. Whichever one he isn’t would allow Toomaga-Allen or Perry to alternate in the match-day 23 throughout the three-test series.

At hooker, the key casualty is that of the incumbent Dane Coles, who continues to suffer from concussion symptoms. Codie Taylor is his obvious heir apparent, but it’s the pecking order beneath him that really strikes interest.

Nathan Harris will likely be selected as Taylor’s back-up, but we’re yet to see a series of convincing displays from him to solidify his place Hansen’s squads. Hot on his heels are one-cap wonder Liam Coltman, and energetic Hurricanes hooker Ricky Riccitelli.

Coltman has long been on the radar of the All Blacks selectors, and has shown he has the capacity to add to his solitary test cap against Italy in 2016 with solid showings through defensive grit and a steel-hard mindset for the Highlanders.

Riccitelli started this season touted by many as the Hurricanes’ third-choice hooker behind Coles and Asafo Aumua, who made two appearances for the All Blacks last November.

However, the South African-born dynamo has been promoted as the Hurricanes’ premier hooker thanks to season-ending injuries to his teammates, and has gone on to stand out in all facets of the game in Chris Boyd’s star-studded team.

With their contrasting styles of play, Coltman and Riccitelli have both put their hands up and put in shifts for their franchises that are worthy of a test call-up.

Although, with his international experience, it’s hard to see Hansen deviating away from selecting Harris, meaning only one of either Coltman or Riccitelli will win a spot.

Blues vice-captain James Parsons lingers as a potential call-up if injury strikes, but it’s a safe punt to suggest that his two-test international career is probably over.

Continue reading below

Lock appears to be one of the simpler areas of selection, where it comes down to two options. Hansen and co could choose to continue pick four second rowers, as they normally do, which would be a case of locking in Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Scott Barrett, and a debutant, with Highlanders man Jackson Hemopo largely favoured to earn his first call-up.

Regular squad members Patrick Tuipulotu and Luke Romano won’t be considered due to an ongoing shoulder and ankle concerns respectively.

However, should the selectors opt to take on board just three locks to accommodate other positions in the squad, then it would be the trio of Retallick, Whitelock, and Barrett for the win.

The underlying potential of Sam Lousi makes him just as likely to earn bolter status in the new All Blacks squad as fellow uncapped competitor Hemopo.

The make-up of loose forwards will be intriguing, as a vast number of contenders all have valid claims for inclusion in the squad for next month’s series. In all likelihood, selection is set to come down to a three-way tug-of-war at blindside flanker, openside flanker, and No. 8, with the top two in each position set to be named.

Liam Squire and Vaea Fifita are the favourites to oust departing veteran Jerome Kaino, denying him a chance at one last farewell before he jets off to Toulouse.

Super Rugby rookie Shannon Frizell would be the next cab of the rank, overtaking Elliot Dixon following his signing with Ricoh Black Rams.

Sam Cane is a certainty to start in the #7 jersey, while Ardie Savea’s monumental return from a rib injury will probably earn him a place in the squad ahead of the ever-impressive Matt Todd.

Super Rugby’s leading tackler Dillon Hunt would be the next in line if there was an injury crisis, followed by Highlanders teammate James Lentjes. Blues tearaway Blake Gibson would be in the conversation if he wasn’t ruled out with injury.

The long-term absence of captain Kieran Read following back surgery at the end of last year opens a vacancy at No. 8, which is much-needed given the lack of depth in that role due to Read’s presence in the squad for nearly a decade.

Whoever is culled out of test-level rookies Akira Ioane, Luke Whitelock, and Jordan Taufua can count themselves as extremely unlucky, as all three have been superb for their respective franchises in Super Rugby.

Ioane has improved his all-round game vastly, increasing his work rate to ensure he is busier and more involved throughout matches. Whitelock is a defensive machine, and the two-test All Black – who captained the national side against the French XV last year – salivates at the prospect of smashing opponents into the turf.

As for Taufua, his continual evolution at the Crusaders has made him one of the most feared players in the country, with his ball-carrying ability and impact on defence hard to miss.

Ioane is likely to be the favoured selection of the trio, as his untapped potential as a world-class loose forward makes him a long-term priority for Hansen and his crew.

It’s difficult to separate between Whitelock and Taufua for the second slot. Given the former acts as a like-for-like stop-gap replacement for Read, mixed with his previous international experience, he may earn the nod over the latter, but Taufua’s proven ability to play at #6 could just as easily work in his favour.

An unexpectedly good campaign by Hurricanes No. 8 Gareth Evans means he lurks in the background as an outside contender, but he may have to bide his time in the Mitre 10 Cup and hold out for the end-of-year tour.

With Aaron Smith and TJ Perenara locked in as certainties for the squad, it will be interesting to see who has won the fight for the third halfback spot.

Two-test Blues captain Augustine Pulu, one-cap wonder Brad Weber, his Chiefs teammate Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, and Crusaders pair Bryn Hall and Mitchell Drummond all stand out as the contenders for that third-string place.

That is if Hansen wants a third halfback. He may decide that none of the five are up to the required standard, and could opt to gift an extra place to another position within the team where congestion is more prevalent.

However, it would be wise to use this series to develop a replacement for the departed Tawera Kerr-Barlow, which is the likely path that the national selectors will take.

But who will get the nod? It’s difficult to say. Drummond was used on the end-of-year tour in November, so the last time the last time the All Blacks played, he was considered the favourite.

Despite this, the elevation of Tahuriorangi into the North Island pre-selection training camps indicates where he stands in the national pecking order, winning an invite ahead of Weber and Pulu.

All things considered, the Chiefs man looms as the favourite to replace Kerr-Barlow. His string of starting appearances at the Chiefs have showcased his high-class ball-carrying and distribution abilities, while last year’s debutant Drummond struggles on a weekly basis to earn the Crusaders’ #9 jersey ahead of Hall.

The mercurial Beauden Barrett will obviously hold down the starting spot at first-five, while Richie Mo’unga and Damian McKenzie will battle for the bench role throughout the series.

That trio seems to be uncontested, although there have been claims that young Stephen Perofeta could sneak in thanks to the potential that he possesses. That’s a big long shot, with his inconsistent displays for a very poor Blues outfit failing to warrant selection.

Heading into the midfield, and this is where the selectors will earn their money. The first decision they must make with this aspect of the team is decide the midfielders/outside backs ratio.

Chances are that they will be left with nine spots to work with for the final two positions, unless they decide to reduce numbers at either hooker, lock or halfback.

If it is nine spots that they must work with, then that creates a predicament for Hansen and his colleagues, as there are five midfielders who all genuinely warrant selection into the team, but one would have to miss out given the fact that five outside backs is usually regarded as the bare minimum for any given squad.

Take your pick as to which player misses the cut: Sonny Bill Williams, Ryan Crotty, Ngani Laumape, Anton Lienert-Brown, or Jack Goodhue.

It’s a tricky scenario, where the loser of the precarious outcome would be desperately unfortunate to have been dropped. The only feasible way in which justice is upheld and all five are be named is if the selectors decide to work with only three locks for the series.

Should injury bestow on any of the aforementioned individuals, the likes of Rob Thompson and Matt Proctor have had their paths cleared towards the national set-up thanks to the departures to France of George Moala and Charlie Ngatai.

Whatever way the axe falls on the midfielders, it appears the outside backs are destined to be restricted to five members, which is not many at all considering the extensive logjam in the positions on the national pecking order.

To reduce the odds of a call-up for one of the fringe prospects even further, four of the five outside backs can already be considered lock-in selections. They consist of Rieko Ioane, Ben Smith, Jordie Barrett, and Waisake Naholo.

That leaves a long trail of hopefuls scrapping it out for just a solitary place in Hansen’s squad, which includes Nehe Milner-Skudder, Julian Savea, David Havili, Ben Lam, Matt Duffie, Solomon Alaimalo, and George Bridge.

That’s an impressive stack of talent that are all fighting for one spot, and they should be thankful that Crusaders trio Israel Dagg (knee injury), Seta Tamanivalu (heading overseas), and Manasa Mataele (ineligible on residency) aren’t being considered.

When it comes down to it, though, that list will probably be whittled down to just two candidates in Hurricanes duo Milner-Skudder and Lam.

The former would provide the All Blacks with an extra touch of unpredictability thanks to his glittering footwork and unprecedented agility. He’s fair smaller than fellow specialist wings Ioane and Naholo, so he would provide the national side with an element different to that of a ‘power wing’, where he relies on his pace and creativity rather than his physique to find his way to the tryline.

On the other hand, the latter has been simply destructive for the 2016 champions this year. He is in career-best form, and with the Super Rugby try-scoring record bound to be crushed by the 25-year-old, it’s been near-impossible not to sit up and take notice of his sudden impact on not just the Hurricanes, but on the entire league.

It’s a tough decision for Hansen to make, but after looking through his squads of 2017, the trend of both staying loyal to those he has already coached, and constantly selecting a wing on the opposite side of the likes of Ioane and Naholo to offer something different to those two was consistent.

The evidence is there to suggest that Milner-Skudder will probably be favoured over Lam for this squad given he ticks both those boxes. However, given Milner-Skudder’s horrendous track record with injuries, don’t be surprised to see Lam rewarded for his fine form at franchise level as an injury call-up at some stage.

Alex McLeod’s predicted 33-man All Blacks squad:

Owen Franks, Joe Moody, Tim Perry, Jeff Toomaga-Allen, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Liam Coltman, Nathan Harris, Codie Taylor, Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Sam Cane (c), Vaea Fifita, Akira Ioane, Ardie Savea, Liam Squire, Luke Whitelock, TJ Perenara, Aaron Smith, Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, Beauden Barrett, Damian McKenzie, Richie Mo’unga, Ryan Crotty, Jack Goodhue, Ngani Laumape, Anton Lienert-Brown, Sonny Bill Williams, Jordie Barrett, Rieko Ioane, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Waisake Naholo, Ben Smith.

In other news: