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Matt Dawson on the elephant in the room for New Zealand

Beauden Barrett of New Zealand looks dejected at full-time following the Rugby World Cup France 2023 match between France and New Zealand at Stade de France on September 08, 2023 in Paris, France. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

Ireland have the form, the confidence plus the weight of recent success behind them and are poised to do to New Zealand what the three-time World Cup winners have done to so many other teams in the past. That’s the view of Matt Dawson, a man who knows just what it is like to be part of a team tearing up the established norms of rugby lore.

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“All of a sudden New Zealand are in a position that every other nation in the world has when they play the All Blacks; now they’re feeling what it is like to play against by far the best team in the world, based on results and position and you know if you don’t get it right, you are going to be punished and punished really badly,” said Dawson as he looked ahead to Saturday evening’s mammoth quarter-final in Paris.

“That part for me is going to be fascinating to see how New Zealand respond. They don’t tend to ever have that feeling when they play against South Africa or Australia because they play them so often. But having a whole week, or if not more, understanding they are by far the underdogs in the game is going to bring a very different dimension to New Zealand.”

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The men in green have prevailed over the boys in black three times out of four in the past 23 months. In the same period you can add a Six Nations Grand Slam winning performance against England plus victories over South Africa, France, Australia, Wales… and just about everybody else.

That is more than enough to flip the aura from the habitual kings of the southern hemisphere to the strutting upstarts in the north.

New Zealand
New Zealand players in training – PA

“There is absolutely not a shred of any of those players’ bodies that fear playing against the All Blacks, which is how it used to be and what it still is for a lot of sides when they play against the All Blacks. Because they have not only played them a lot but they’ve been successful,” Dawson said.

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The former scrum-half was part of the England side that crucially broke its own hoodoo by winning in New Zealand in 2003 ahead of their World Cup winning exploits, and he understands just what a difference recent results will have made to the two team’s quarter-final build-up.

“Deep down when you know it is a mountain to climb to beat the opposition or beat the All Blacks you spend a lot of your week trying to search for the way to do it and Ireland won’t be having to expend that sort of energy, that mental and physical energy on that, because they know how to do it, they just revisit old conversations and old places in their mind that they know have been very successful,” Dawson explained.

“That is a big leg up compared to the All Blacks who will be thinking, ‘how on earth are we going to break down Ireland’.

“They’ll tell us all that they are only focused on what they are doing but nobody has worked out Ireland. Nobody has worked out how to really put a spanner in the works for Ireland to (have to) work out what to do during a game. That takes a huge amount of time and energy that you really don’t have during a quarter-final week.”

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In contrast, Ireland won’t have been “flogging” their players but will simply have been “resting up, (doing) little walkthroughs, small, short sharp gym sessions and lots of recovery”.

The fact the Irish have been to seven Rugby World Cup quarter-finals to date and never further, does not concern Dawson in the slightest.

“I would be flabbergasted if that is holding them back in any way,” the Englishman said, before adding simply, “Ireland have proven to be superb over the last year or so particularly being able to negate those reasons for doubt, which I think stands them above anybody else at the moment.”

Once New Zealand are out of the way, Dawson predicts an Ireland versus France final – a game he would “certainly like to be at”. You heard it here first.

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Comments

75 Comments
O
Owen 645 days ago

Oh man, this showed up as a suggestion for me to read (after all the quarter finals). How embarrassing.

SA and the ABs (and their supporters) have learnt the hard way how to prepare for this stage, Ireland and France have just been dealt a dose of what is now familiar territory for us. And just like SA and the ABs, i’m thinking they're going to come back a lot better. The next 4 years are going to be great.

Hopefully these “experts” learn a thing or two as well, but not likely. The biggest question I have is, why are these teams not playing each other more often?

B
Braydon 646 days ago

Hahaha well this article aged poorly 24hours later Mr Dawson…

J
JW 646 days ago

Dawson doesn’t understand it’s much tougher at the top. Ireland took that All Black pedestal and got a taste of what it will be like for them.


You’d think Matt followed Eddie’s ‘19 WC run enough to understand what it looks like. NZ had over a year to prepare for this game, Ireland are the ones that thought they had to do something different for it in 5 days of prep.

A
A 646 days ago

Matt Dawson is consistently wrong in his predictions.

They are driven less by his considerable knowledge and more by his prejudices.

Needs to be more Bill Mclaren me thinks

J
JW 646 days ago

“All of a sudden New Zealand are in a position that every other nation in the world has when they play the All Blacks; now they’re feeling what it is like to play against by far the best team in the world, based on results and position and you know if you don’t get it right, you are going to be punished and punished really badly,”

That’s a fair cop, but I’ve a suspicion Dawson doesn’t really understand what he’s saying. It’s Ireland that are going to have to deal with every team, like this All Blacks one, trying to play out of their skins to knock them off. They couldn’t deal with it this weekend.


As NZ know, the punishment can work both ways.


“Deep down when you know it is a mountain to climb to beat the opposition or beat the All Blacks you spend a lot of your week trying to search for the way to do it and Ireland won’t be having to expend that sort of energy, that mental and physical energy on that, because they know how to do it”

Again, Dawson’s just a little bit off the pace. The AB’s have had over a year, not a week, to climb this mountain. That’s how it is when you take that All Black pedestal for yourself, people have you in their sights. You’d think, as an Englishman probably somewhat close to Eddie’s 19’ attempt, he’d understand that.


The AB’s appeared the ones to have had the settled week (longer than Ireland’s) trusting what they had been working on, and Ireland the one’s making last minute adjustments in tactics and strategy.


Ireland will come back even better and make Australia their new home in 27’, it could be that Cup we see our next new winner.

J
Jen 647 days ago

ABs supporters get tarred as arrogant when this complete tripe gets thrown around.

R
Rch 647 days ago

What’s a joke! Arrogant Northern Hemisphere crap. Getting sick of it.

m
mW 647 days ago

I rank this amateurs reporting in league with the titanic sinking. 4 more years Ireland.

P
Pete 647 days ago

You couldn't have been more wrong Dawson

A
Andy 647 days ago

Watch the AB's turn it on in this one for a win. They have the big game temperament, Ireland will finish 2nd

A
Andy 647 days ago

Ohhh. Just seen the result. Won’t be seeking advice in any form from M Dawson. Time to disappear mate

G
Gav 647 days ago

South Africa v Fiji

New Zealand v Argentina

A
Andy 647 days ago

True dat

G
Gav 647 days ago

waiting for Mr Dawson revisiting his article Lollllll

M
MM 647 days ago

Dawson is an arrogant kunt

J
Jmann 647 days ago

Well - that aged well didn’t it Matt? lol. Some pretty embarrassed NH commentators waking up this morning to TWO magnificent SH wins

W
Warner 647 days ago

Southern Hemisphere 2023 2nil

Kia kaha ABs defence

defence

defence.

That world number one done and dusted finals looking good.

See yous there

Mauri ora

T
TT 647 days ago

Results proving how light weight your thoughts are Dawson. Go into FULL retirement.

C
Chesterfield 647 days ago

Major difference between mathematical ranking and the culture of the greatest team of all time init?

S
Shudraka 647 days ago

And they choked…8th time!!!

B
Bob Marler 647 days ago

It was a very impressive and entertaining 1st half. With the New Zealanders scoring all the tries.

C
Chesterfield 647 days ago

Wales, Scotland, and Italy have proven the Six Nations isn’t a strong enough competition to win the RWC. Perhaps they should leave it and join the Rugby Championship. Ireland might benefit also.

B
Blanco 647 days ago

The talk of a ‘Final’ in NZ all week is the talk of a team which believes it has to achieve something extra special to win this test match. Ireland are concentrating on their performance as usual not the occasion. If Ireland score early it could be a long evening of disapointment for NZ as plans go awry.

J
Jen 647 days ago

Not feeling disappointed over here.

B
Brent 647 days ago

Ireland played well, as they have done so for so long now, and yes it was an extra special effort by the boys in Black. People should always remember to not count your chickens before they hatch

J
Jmann 647 days ago

so - that aged pretty well eh champ?

k
kiwi 647 days ago

………starting your last sentence with “If” just reeks of the confidence you have in your team 😆

k
kiwi 647 days ago

Absolutely agree with Kevens assessment. Yes there is no question that Ireland are a formidable team right NOW, however, the All Blacks will ALWAYS be a formidable team to play. Their first test match was in 1903. Now fast forward 120 years with 919 games and a win rate of 82%….just let that sink in for a moment.

Any side that thinks they’ve got one over the All Blacks before the game has even started will be in for a rude awakening.

Dawsons last comment about “once NZ are out of the way”……just typifies the feeling that an Irish win is a forgone conclusion.

I love hearing those comments especially coming from average ex-international NH players.

LOL!

B
Blanco 647 days ago

Dawson is a world cup winner in 2003 and finalist in 2007.

NZs form in the last year not 100 years is most relevant.

P
Poe 647 days ago

Yeah right. NZ are the elephant in the room…

K
Keven 647 days ago

Luke, you really dont understand NZ rugby, and if you think Eire will be strutting around the pool with a pina colada in their hand, you are very misread. Ireland have the weight of the Nth Hemisphere on their shoulders, and know if they lose, they will be relegated to where they were 4 years ago. Tell me this is not pressure, they will have been spending every waking moment analysing and re-analysing each and every Black player.


NZ dont do pressure. The ABs expect to win every time they walk on the paddock, this is not arrogance, it is self belief, they have it now! That dosen’t mean they have not don’t the same analysing that Eire have done, they have.


The AB’s are an anomaly at the moment, even they are unsure how they will play, but rest assured they will be ready - utrinque paratus

O
Oisin 647 days ago

The ABs are losing their coach after this tournament and struggling to prove they have what it takes. More recently they have been demolished by opposition that Ireland has succeeded against. I’m not saying this game will be easy for Ireland at all, it’s the All Blacks. But the weight of history won’t have any bearing on this game. Glory awaits Ireland if they win, matching the all time record of consecutive wins, breaking the curse, and doing it all against rugby’s most legendary team would be incredible. I think we have the edge.

B
Blanco 647 days ago

(Eire refers to the 26 counties of the Rep of Ireland only: the rugby team Ireland refers to 32 counties of Ireland (Republic + Northern Ireland). NZ will do pressure turned up to Max at 9pm French time tonight whether they like it or not.

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Jfp123 29 minutes ago
Why New Zealand learned more from their July series than France

It will be great if Jalibert improves in defence, but unless and until he improves substantially, I think he should be out of the running for the national team. If you look at the French A side, attack is not usually so much of a problem - they scored 200 points in the last 6 nations without MJ on the pitch. Defence however can be an issue, Penaud isn’t the greatest in that area for a start. So a 10 who is solid in defence is badly needed. And given his poor defence record, MJ would be bound to be targeted by shrewd coaches like Rassi and Razor, so he needs to be able to withstand that.

Also, given sufficient improvement in defence, there are still factors which tell against MJ. I think the 7/1 bench has been a very successful experiment, and for that you need flexible backs who can play in more than one position in case of injury. Then there’s how well the 10 plays with France’s best 9, Dupont. And even if you think MJ is better when there’s no Dupont or 7/1 split, stability in a test team is important, so it’s better not to go chopping and changing the 10 needlessly. There’s also the question of temperament - MJ doesn’t shine at his brightest when it really matters, eg WC quarters and Top14 finals, and look at his test record over the past 2 years.

I see Ntamack as by far the best option at 10. Rugby is a team game, and apart from his excellent defence, there’s his partnership with Dupont, his versatility, and all the other skills that go to making a great team player and a great 10. He’s excellent under the high ball, an area where France tend to have a weakness, and has fine strategic and team management skills, great handling skills and so on.

While having star quality is important, it’s not the be all and end all, as illustrated by UBB this season. Imo, though undoubtedly very good, they underperformed. With best wings, best 9, as Dupont barely played in the Top14, with Jalibert and leading centres and 15, plus a strengthened forward pack, they couldn’t match ST in points scored, despite the latter’s huge injury list which left some positions seriously weakened, at least on paper.

For next season, I hope ST are back to their scintillating best with injuries healed, that LBB is back to rude health for UBB, that the exciting promise of La Rochelle’s and Toulon’s new recruits bears fruit, Bayonne continue to defy their budget and we have a cracking, highly competitive Top14 and Les Bleus triumphant in the autumn internationals and six nations!

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