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Matt Williams details the possible flaw in Ireland's World Cup strategy
By Ben Smith
Former Scotland coach and Australian Irish TV pundit Matt Williams has detailed a theory on the possible error in Ireland’s Rugby World Cup campaign after their quarter-final exit at the hands of New Zealand.
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Head coach Andy Farrell was prepared to play his number one side all through pool play without rotating his key players against the lesser likes of Romania and Tonga.
After being placed in the group of death Ireland weren’t prepared to take any chances, but in the end perhaps left the top players without enough fuel in the tank after falling just short to the All Blacks.
Williams believed that the pivotal point that will be raised in the post-mortem is whether they should have played their seconds team in the opening clash against Romania which Ireland won 82-8.
“I think in the review, the question will be, in the last warm-up game against Samoa in Bayonne, they played their seconds team,” Williams explained on Virgin Media Sport.
“Was that the day you play your first team, then give them the week off and don’t play them against Romania, and then you get them going [against Tonga].
“Because as Shane has said, they had to peak or be ready for South Africa. And I said this at the time, we will only know in hindsight. But I think it is going to come up in the review.
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“That’s where the Romania game, where they put 85 points on them, maybe that’s it. And maybe we are clutching at straws and maybe it doesn’t exist.”
Ireland’s second unit didn’t impress against Samoa in wet conditions during their last warm-up which may have influenced the decision, but also the need to get into form ahead of South Africa surely played a part.
Former international Shane Horgan believed that the circumstances around key players meant that they had to play against Romania and the weight of history also played a role.
“You’re trying to balance different things, because you also want to create a momentum, and they did, and a feel good in the camp,” Horgan said.
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“And you want game time for your key players, some of whom were injured, Sexton hadn’t played.
“So there is a balance, and I’m not sure there is a perfect way to do this.
“If there is foolproof way of winning a World Cup everyone would be following it.
“Listen, I thought we had ticked the milestones that Ireland has hit, we’d done all those things. They’ve done the preparation, they’ve done what you needed to five yourself a chance of winning the World Cup.”
Horgan thought that previous World Cup jitters meant that Farrell wasn’t going to take any risks of not picking up the required bonus points.
“I think they had to focus on getting out of that group,” he said.
“That’s another hangover from never getting out, never getting beyond a quarter-final.
“It’s the group of death, Scotland are resurgent and South Africa are the world champions. You’re thinking what happens if we don’t get the bonus point?
“It happened to me at the World Cup in 2007. We had a terrible result first time out, we got a bonus point, we played Georgia and didn’t get a bonus point and nearly got beaten, then we lost against France, and then you’re out.
“So I can understand, until Ireland are a little more comfortable in their own skin, I can understand why they did what they did.”
Ireland were fine. I think they were only trying to get past the quarter, so playing the team each was probably the best way to do it.
It’s not like they had a to play through to the final, and come up against a side who’s forwards had only played half a game each week. Personally, I think they should have tried to achieve more and made mistakes in how they prepared for SA, but it was essentially irrelevant in the end.
Poignantly, this article had an ad video of their 6Ns victory. They looked like they won the World Cup. I think this attitude that 6N is their pinnacle for NH teams, given they can have very little success on the world stage, is what they will need to pass. I think both Ireland and France will now have gone a long way towards doing that for 2027 (and hopefully Ireland aren’t unlucky to be sucked into a poor mindset by - comprehensively - beating an atrociously coached AB team again).
Matt’s favourite word: “Maybe”.
F-all insight. That’s why he’s the most unsuccessful Scotland coach EVER.
Excuses excuses excuses. As a Kiwi fan, been there, done that. Reference RWC1999, RWC2003, RWC2007. There's no “why”. Put it down to this beast called “finals footy’.
Move on.
I said before the tournament that maybe we should just play our B team against SA and finish second. At the end of the day it was Hobson's choice who we played in the quarters
Matt Williams, the most overrated non entity in the entire world of rugby.
Matt “mr morals” Williams at it again 😂😂
No question Johnny Sexton was out on his feet towards the end of the ABs match.
He should have been subbed —— we have to bring on Crowley his successor.
We could have won the match. !
Just imagine —- even a semi final !!!!!!
Ireland was superbly efficient in its predictability. But a very good team nevertheless.
Yeah keep imagining what a Semi-Final looks like haha
Hanson Lowe Park played below par .just wasnt Irelands day SA better on the day
As I understand it, after four pool games the average minutes for players in the starting 15s were Ireland:250, France:191, NZ: 167, SA: 164. It’s not just the averages that are interesting, but the ranges. Almost all SA players were between 130 and 180 minutes of playing time in those four games, whereas the range for Ireland was between 75 and 320 (the latter being the ceiling of course). Draw your own conclusions.
One observation is that SA spread the load extremely evenly, and on average each player had played roughly two games before the QFs. Nienaber is a pro physio, so maybe he has some insight on this. The Ireland average, on the other hand, was over 3 matches on the odometer for their starting 15, with two players having played all 4 full games.
Did Ireland miss a trick by over-playing their players? Maybe, but maybe they had little choice. I think Rassie/Jacques would point out they could only avoid this because of many months of preparation. They intentionally built sufficient breadth, depth, experience and versatility that they could spread the load in the pool games and still emerge from a tough pool. And they have been able to carefully manage the load on each player to land within some target range at the start of the KOs. You would bet that they have a plan to extend this through their remaining games.
You do not want players like Bundee Aki or Hugo Keenan going into a QF against NZ having played every minute of every pool game in the toughest of all pools. Aside from the questions about how well they can perform having put in that kind of mileage, it raises big questions about your ability to substitute them with RWC-ready players, should the need arise.
In short, the Farrell RWC 2027 plan needs to revolve around developing depth and versatility in the squad. It’s not an Irish QF curse - it’s just the ton of work it takes to deliver consistency in the tournament. We should expect Ireland to get there in the next 4 years.
All of Ireland’s players got time and were ready to step in.
You cannot compare game time against Romania with game time against SA. That was where some Irish players got their extra minutes. I did not see any extra fatigue on Irish players compared to New Ireland players even though Ireland had the tougher match the previous week.
Postmortems are too easy and so many journalists jump on this bandwagon. Prior to this game the rhetoric being spouted was Ireland was dominating because they had cohesion from playing their top lineup game after game. Now we have to listen to the 180°
It’s the same thing every world cup year, every Autumn the southern hemisphere go on about it being the end of their season and that’s why they lose but then claim that if they win it’s because they’re “battle hardened” and the same at world cups.
I think you’re all over-analysing it. Fine margins, yes, but quite frankly the bog-leapers bottled it. Yet again.
The point being missed is not the use of the same 23 for all 5 games but the fact that the remaining 10 players aren’t up to the task and the strength in depth talked about isn’t actually there. Ireland have sorted out their structure and have a great pool of players to call upon but because they got so carried away with their unbeaten run and Number 1 status, they forgot to expose new players to international rugby, take a few losses to then get those 10 players into a position where they could be trusted to play against the Tier 2 teams.
NZ took Cane off, SA took Kolisi off but Ireland and France left their captains on and both under performed on the night, whereas the opposition captains contributed massively and emptied their tanks. Coaches to blame for this but only because of the egos of Sexton and Dupont demanding they stay on.
It seemed to me that the The Sexton ban affected selection and management decided that two games were necessary with Sexton and the full team before SA. Not sure if this affected anything, but thats why they did it.
1: I have heard a commentary that Ireland played to the script from the 3rd test in New Zealand. That’s an error on managements part and would imply they hadn’t looked at NZ that much since that series. See next point.
2: Joe Schmidt. A man of ulimate detail applied to his intimate knowledge of Ireland and NH referees (Barnes). You had the best man in the world at devising attacks against teams, devising attacks against a team he knew better than any in International rugby and a referee he had analysed deeply when managing Ireland. This is NOT your average situation and required special attention. An up to date stress test on Irish weakness as Schmidt would detect in the context of Wayne Barnes and how to mitigate that with tactics and even selection. My gut tells me that the SH giants had a bit of a jump on the NH counterparts as regards those game tactics. I assume its because with 2 games in the Rugby Championships you must analyse an international opponent’s weakness and their ability to exploit yours more often.
Handre Pollard has not played for the Springboks for many months. The way the coaches eased him in was brilliant. Perhaps that's what they should have done with Sexton after his ban.
That's the thing, going 37 phases is going to hurt either way. Had they not been so worn out they may not have needed to go that many. Yep they had big games they needed to win but like the ABs in Dunedin, you could bench some of your guns, to a degree resting them, and only bring them on if absolutely necessary. Every ones an expert with hindsight.
They definitely had a tougher run which is going to accumulate fatigue but putting together 37 phases in the final minutes of the game doesn't smack of tiredness. They got done at the breakdown by Savea and Cane who had the games of their lives. Ireland's game is entirely built around quick ball and this is the first time anyone has denied them it in a long time. They lost all their tempo and composure under the pressure. Ireland are a fantastic team but they were beaten on the day by one of the great world cup performances.
I am not using 20/20 hindsight. Too much going for the corner when playing such a good team. Also…we know from the 6 Nations that Andrew Porter can be played in the scrum. The issue I thought was tactics in the game…not strategy in the competition 😔
They put 37 quality phases together after 75mins of intense combat …
.they were’nt tired or physically draine ….that game could have gone either way.
They were obviously tired. Aki and Van def Flier had played every minute as fas as I’m aware. That’s silly. Van der Flier looked tired at the end of Scotland match and was subbed off against NZ. There 2 best players didn’t need to play 80 against Tonga and Romania. NZ have more WC experience in their coaching staff and rotated their players well. Although it was easier for them, Ireland needed to make more of an effort since they had less rest time between their pool match QF. Overconfident!
Who the f is this guy, you a pundit and talk is cheap. Its glaring that they didn't take the easy 6 points on offer. Coach said it, Captain's call. End of story.
Both points can be right at the same time. Absolutely, we should have taken our points but even if Ireland had managed to beat the ABs, they couldn’t have won the world cup on fumes. Getting past a QF hoodoo means nothing if we get beaten by Argentina in a SF.
With hindsight, Ireland were out on their feet in the 2nd half v Scotland. Why?... because they put everything into beating SA and Scotland. The ABs and SA carefully managed their energy and squad resources through the group stages at the risk of losing 1 game. They both knew they could afford to.
When the writer is Ben Smith and the pundit is Matt Williams, you just know a sh*tstew is being served.
As good a coach as Farrell is, he bottled the big call which was to pull sexton after an hour. He looked dead on his feet and they needed energy at 10. Everyone goes on about 36 phases at the end. If you can't get through after that many attempts,you never will, quality defence or not.
WC Rookie coach error. Any other coach would have given Sexton the shepherd’s crook. But Sexton exerted too much power even the coach couldn’t yoink him.
Don’t go looking for excuses. Ireland were outplayed on Saturday. Just it what it is.
Outplayed, they almost won the game. It was an even game Jacque that could have gone either way. I hope your Boks get pumped in the final you bum!
The phenomenal pressure brought on by the media frenzy sbout Ireland's being number 1 in the world has a part to play in this repeat quarter final exit. Relentless nonsense about world rankings aside, there were major issues again in early line-outs plus baffling tactical choices later in the game. Woodward summed it up when stating Knock out rugby is all about constant point building, not playing every ball into the corner. Schmidt knew Ireland better than they did themselves. Far too predictable.
Given up an easy early 3 for a kick to the corner early that they fluffed gave me hope. Clearly, not playing point building, silly. Complete arrogance thinking they could walk over the line. That was WC naivete. 4 more years.
Wasn’t the strategic flaw not actually winning all their games?
Usually a precursor to succeeding in RWC init?
Yep I believe ireland should have rested some players a lot of them aren't that young, and that is one heck of a lot of rugby, and a lot of them sure look stuffed in the last quarter, it's one thing to have your team gel but they can't play a hundred percent on jelly legs. Also a lot to do with the fact that ABS fitness is on par, and I believe this is their first major test without any injuries, bloody nice to get one in without cards too though. Still that's all about hindsight isn't it.dave.j
I think the all blacks finally let Joe Smith work he's magic.new Zealand were like one trick poneys against France,just outscore the opposition.But against Ireland they were controlled and calculated.
Ireland played near to their potential, Allblacks will be reviewing their final box kick, timing of sub’s, maul defence and the gift horse they gave the opposition with twenty minutes playing with fourteen which should've cost them the match. The Allblacks can and need to shift up several years.
If they're not going to use McKenzie then consideration needs to be given to another loose forward on the bench or Telea to come on with fresh legs.
Telea can’t defend. The little SA guys will run rings round him
well they certainly looked shot in last 1/4 and had the highest playing minutes of frontline players in the top 4 - and/or took too much to beat the Boks - bit like Eng after ABs in 19
Yeah England definitely played their final against the abs, then had nothing left for the boks. Hope they do it against the boks this year.Dave.j.
I don't think it helped Ireland that O’Mahoney mentally retired before the match and didn’t show up at all over the 80 minutes.
He was to busy thinking about his lawn.
To be fair none of the Irish senior players stood up, except for Bundee Aki. Sexton played mediocre.