Nate Brakeley: Both camps will have this match circled as one due for a big performance

Familiar rivals since the formation of the modern USA Rugby governing body, Japan and USA have faced off since a first meeting in Tokyo in 1985. Early encounters in the amateur era saw American muscle overpowering the Japanese, with the Eagles jumping out to a 9-1-1 series lead; however, with the recent renowned investment in and support of the game in Japan, the Brave Blossoms have won seven of the last eight encounters, most recently in the 2019 Pacific Nations’ Cup in Fiji.

Both teams come into the match with new coaching staffs and their respective countries' eyes on which way they will carry their fortunes. Japan has re-signed Eddie Jones, the coach behind the build up to the Brighton Miracle, whose mercurial form and polarising style has yet to manifest into the same expected success. Although they comprehensively dismantled Canada in the first round of the PNC, the victory was preceded by ugly losses to both Italy and Georgia, two teams Japan should be handling if they want to maintain their tenuous Tier 1 status. USA presents another team they “should” beat, though that moniker can often lead to nervy performances, especially if Jones’ infamous mind games backfire. A loss here could also spell another downward spiral for Jones’ tenure– which would certainly heat up, if not threaten, his seat atop the union.

USA has brought in Scott Lawrence, a familiar face in the union’s age grade ranks, in their first signing of an American head coach since Mike Tolkin departed in 2015. His comprehensive vision of the path to the USA’s hosting of the World Cup in 2031 has the nation excited, and his selections of youth and crossover talent has added a distinctly American feel to his camp. Victories over Spain and Brazil in the autumn showcased a new attacking flair and punishing defence, the latter of which also showed in a lopsided loss to Scotland in July. Although the team still chases consistency and clinically in their performances, they’ve shown dangerous qualities that can give a team like Japan, with whom they match well physically, some real frustration. For a team hoping to follow a similar trajectory as Japan into the ranks of the rugby big boys, this is a test the USA will relish.

Why Japan Will Win

In their victory over Canada two weeks ago, Japan’s first phase line breaks and ability to rapidly exploit the width of the field saw them jump to a 38-7 lead. In USA’s defeat of Canada last week, Canada’s two tries came from first phase set piece and broken play. And if it weren’t for sloppy Canadian hands, they likely would have threatened more through clever back play in the wide channels. USA’s rush defense, although at times stifling, often leaves the last attacker free, challenging the attack to get the ball to them– Japanese skills, as showcased against Canada, should have no issue exploiting this gap given any USA miscues. The big Japanese forwards they place in the wide channels will consistently bend or break the USA backs, maintaining their trademark rapid attack speed. Recent results aside, Japan has the experience and savvy to throw more at the young Eagles than they can handle, and eventually the dam will break and the tries will roll in.

Why USA Will Win

The key to victory over the Japanese is to slow their speed of ball and match their work rate around the park. The key to both of these aspects is a dogged backrow and midfield, which USA has in spades between Paddy Ryan, Cory Daniel, and Tomasso Boni, tackling machines with equal skill at the breakdown. Matched with Lawrence’s focus on fitness, especially at the contact area, the team should be able to effectively wrestle Japan to a crawl, nullifying a critical aspect of their attack. Once the game slows down, the set piece becomes more important– given Canada’s two scrum and one maul penalty against Japan, USA should identify this as a key area to attack, and their scrum can certainly deliver, likely featuring Jack Iscaro and Paul Mullen at the props this weekend.

On the attack, Canada showed success with attacking kicks behind the Japanese defence, and Luke Carty’s kicking masterclass last week should give the Eagles an effective and frustrating weapon against the Japanese. So long as the kick chase stays organised, consistently switching the field of play around will mount increased defensive pressure on a Japanese attack that will find themselves uncomfortably on the back foot. As this pressure eventually results in penalties or exit kicking miscues, the USA will find themselves in strong positions to either take points or make use of their aforementioned set piece. A near-perfect line-out performance from last week should carry over as a potent attacking weapon.

Why Anyone Can Win

As a bellwether for the progress of each team’s rebuild and new coaching staff, both camps will have this match circled as one due for a big performance. Expect both to have a well rehearsed gameplan, with any first-match jitters out of the way from prior rounds. While USA certainly has a smaller margin for error, they have the tools to execute and every right to expect a victory of themselves. The first twenty minutes of this match will be critical to set the tone– if USA matches up defensively and starts their set piece ascendency, expect the balance to tip in their favour; however, an early Japanese onslaught could end the match before it starts.

All that being said, I’m picking the Eagles, because what is patriotism if not belief with a healthy dose of denial?