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'Our chances to win are a bit higher than 20 per cent,' reckon Russian underdogs

Two Japan fans pose outside the stadium prior to the World Cup 2019 Group A game against Russia in Tokyo (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Russia plan to spoil Japan’s big day by bringing “chaos” to the opening match of the 2019 Rugby World Cup. The Brave Blossoms begin their home tournament by hosting Lyn Jones’ side in Tokyo on Friday, raising the curtain on six weeks of rugby which culminate in the final in Yokohama on November 2.

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But Russia – beaten 85-15 by Italy during a warm-up programme that also saw them lose to Connacht and Jersey – hope to spring a surprise by inflicting a defeat that would do serious damage to Japan’s ambition of making it out of a pool that also features Ireland, Scotland and Samoa.

“We watched the last four or five games of Japan,” said Russia captain Vasily Artemyev. “They have a very structured, organised game. We need to bring chaos into their organisation.”

Assistant coach Alexander Voytov added: “We are very glad and proud to play against Japan in the opening game. We have studied the opponent, we have done huge work, so we are ready at maximum. The match is going to be interesting and open. Our previous encounter with Japan has proved we can play at a higher level in terms of our physicality and aggression, especially in tackles and rucks.

“Our chances to win are a bit higher than 20 per cent (as Russia head coach Lyn Jones said on Wednesday). I know the players, I see our work, and I realise that there won’t be as much pressure on us as on the Japanese. Our chances are lower but still rather good. The guys will give themselves for 110 or 120 per cent.”

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Japan coach Jamie Joseph has made seven changes to the side beaten 41-7 by South Africa earlier this month. Joseph’s men had to overturn a 22-10 half-time deficit to win 32-27 when these sides last met in Gloucester in November and captain Michael Leitch admits the nerves have been evident in training.

“I’m so nervous I’ve been making all sorts of mistakes in training – there are so many people and so many cameras,” he said. “But I’m very proud to be part of the World Cup and to be captain of the Japan rugby team.

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Leitch skippered the Japan side who pulled off the biggest upset in World Cup history when they beat South Africa 34-32 in Brighton four years ago. “In 2015 everyone expected us to lose – even the Japanese public,” he commented.

“We have a lot of respect for Russia and we were very lucky to win last time we played them. I wouldn’t say we were favourites – I’d say we were even going into this Test match and if we don’t play our best we’re going to struggle. But when we beat South Africa, all eyes were on us.

“The next game against Scotland, 30 million people were watching. Even though we lost, it inspired Japan. This time we’ve got the opportunity to inspire Japan again. We have trained well, prepared well and this will be Japan’s best World Cup ever.”

Assistant coach Tony Brown admitted controlling nerves at the host nation will be important. “That is always a challenge. We played South Africa two weeks ago and that’s been a long time. The players are keen to get out there but we have an experienced group so those guys have got the team under control and they understand what they have to do.

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“It’s been an enjoyable week and they have not been nervous at all. The players played against the All Blacks here so there is no problem with them being too nervous against Russia, it’s not an issue for us. Russia are good at kicking the ball but we need to be pressuring, turn them into counter-attacks. We are good in the air with the high ball and being able to move the ball quickly will be important.”

Japan winger Kenki Fukuoka (right hamstring) and Amanaki Mafi (right shoulder) have been left out after picking up knocks in their last match against South Africa. Kazuki Himeno takes up the latter’s No8 role while Lomano Lemeki fills in at winger. Russian full-back Denis Simplikevich, who scored tries against Ireland and Australia in the 2011 World Cup, has been left out.

Keep up to date with the latest score, stats and join the conversation from anywhere in the world in our Live Match Centre (click here).

WATCH: The trailer for the new RugbyPass behind the scenes documentary on Tonga’s preparations for the World Cup

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Soliloquin 1 hour ago
Competing interests and rotated squads: What the 'player welfare summer' is really telling us

I don’t know the financial story behind the changes that were implemented, but I guess clubs started to lose money, Mourad Boudjellal won it all with Toulon, got tired and wanted to invest in football , the French national team was at its lowest with the QF humiliation in 2015 and the FFR needed to transform the model where no French talent could thrive. Interestingly enough, the JIFF rule came in during the 2009/2010 season, so before the Toulon dynasty, but it was only 40% of the players that to be from trained in French academies. But the crops came a few years later, when they passed it at the current level of 70%.

Again, I’m not a huge fan of under 18 players being scouted and signed. I’d rather have French clubs create sub-academies in French territories like Wallis and Futuna, New Caledonia and other places that are culturally closer to RU and geographically closer to rugby lands. Mauvaka, Moefana, Taofifenua bros, Tolofua bros, Falatea - they all came to mainland after starting their rugby adventure back home.

They’re French, they come from economically struggling areas, and rugby can help locally, instead of lumping foreign talents.

And even though many national teams benefit from their players training and playing in France, there are cases where they could avoid trying to get them in the French national team (Tatafu).

In other cases, I feel less shame when the country doesn’t believe in the player like in Meafou’s case.

And there are players that never consider switching to the French national team like Niniashvili, Merckler or even Capuozzo, who is French and doesn’t really speak Italian.

We’ll see with Jacques Willis 🥲


But hey, it’s nothing new to Australia and NZ with PI!

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