Paul the Super Rugby Oracle's Round 5 Tips: Please No More Draws This Weekend

Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend's round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.

Round 4 was a tough weekend for Paul Neazor, whose picks were scuppered by two weird draws. First Joe Pietersen sliced a simple penalty kick wide to consign the Sharks to a draw against the Bulls, then hours later Ihaia West made a kick from a near-identical position on the field to secure a draw for the Blues against the Reds. Losses to the Sunwolves and Brumbies also put a dent in Paul's record, which now stands at 24/33 (24/29 if you discount his bogey team the Blues). In percentage terms, he has fallen from a 79% tipping record to 73%. If it falls below 70% after Round 5 we may be forced to stop referring to Paul as an Oracle.

Hurricanes vs Kings

Last time these sides met the Hurricanes scored half a dozen tries against the Kings at Wellington and Beauden Barrett (pictured) kicked a whole lot of goals. The same thing should happen again this week, except Barrett may not do all the goal-kicking. The Hurricanes are starting to look like a team that can challenge for a playoff spot while the Kings look like one intent on locking up the wooden spoon in record time. The visitors have no backline punch at all, which is never a good look against the Hurricanes, and if they can stay within 25 points it might be regarded as a satisfactory effort.

Pick: Hurricanes (13 and over)

Chiefs vs Force

Fatigue could be the biggest factor in this match – the Chiefs return home three days before the game having played each of their last three matches more than 10,000km from the previous one. They also achieved in three weeks what it took Ferdinand Magellan’s crew three years to accomplish - a circumnavigation of the globe. That’s a lot of threes. The Force only have to worry about finding ways to score points in multiples of five rather than three; it has been a problem so far in 2016. Despite being tired, you can expect the Chiefs to come roaring out of the blocks and try to run up the biggest score possible inside an hour, before concentrating more on defence as the players start to fade. The home side should win but don’t expect pretty.

Pick: Chiefs (12 and under)

Rebels vs Highlanders

While both sides have 3-1 records going into this match, they have been achieved in different ways against very different opposition. The Rebels have been clinical in every match, doing little things right and taking their chances. But they haven’t played anyone of consequence yet – most everyone would have killed for their fixture list in the first month. The Highlanders have won by taking chances in a flash – if a gap is there, seven points may well be on the other side. They have beaten three serious playoff contenders already, and in two of those matches have run them ragged. The visitors should win by a fair old margin.

Pick: Highlanders (13 and over)

Sunwolves vs Bulls

The Sunwolves had their best shot at a win all season last week and while they hung in for the first half, the Rebels brushed them aside in the second. The Bulls are below par this season but should be good enough to win this one, although they do need to be a little careful over the first hour or so.

Pick: Bulls (13 and over)

Cheetahs v Brumbies

The Brumbies copped almost every rough call going last week (although I don’t consider the red card one of them) and in the end took a fairly big loss. Stephen Larkham won’t be happy, Stephen Moore wasn’t happy during the game and the rest of the team will catch that drift. The Cheetahs lost to the Lions and, by halftime, threatened to sink without trace. The Brumbies should take this one by plenty.

Pick: Brumbies (13 and over)

Sharks vs Crusaders

This is one of the trickiest games to pick this week, between two teams of contrasting styles. The Sharks don’t do much in a game except defend well – especially after halftime – and kick most of their goals. It’s been good enough for three wins and a draw. The Crusaders have lost one but have impressed in their two subsequent wins. Their backs need to step up, and if they do the visitors should have enough to get up. But I’m not going to rush to the TAB on this one, especially if Marius Jonker is to be TMO – in that case, expect a wild decision to play a big part in deciding the outcome in favour of the home side.

Pick: Sharks (12 and under)

Jaguares vs Stormers

The Jaguares are getting the hang of most things about Super Rugby, but as yet they haven’t shown an understanding of how 15 solid performances might well be better than 15 flashy ones. The Stormers already understand the principle; that’s how they’ve approached Super Rugby for ten years. This season they have an almighty forward pack that has bossed everyone, especially at the lineouts, and decent kickers who aren’t missing often. That combination, allied to sound defence, should get them up at Buenos Aires although I’m keen to see if the Jaguares play it a little closer to the chest.

Pick: Stormers (12 and under)

Reds vs Waratahs

Few would have expected these two sides to come into this game with one win between them (by the Waratahs against the Reds in the first round) and a bunch of disappointing losses. Nobody would have expected the Waratahs to be needing a win here to keep the Rebels in sight; nobody would have expected the Reds to go into the match thinking (with reason) that they could beat the Waratahs forwards up. The Reds are still likely to cop a sixth straight belting from their interstate rivals, who will have Bernard Foley back to provide stability at first-five and points off the tee.

Pick: Waratahs (13 and over)

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