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Predicting Andy Farrell's 33-man Ireland Rugby World Cup squad

Jonathan Sexton, right, and Ciaran Frawley of Ireland during the Steinlager Series match between the New Zealand and Ireland at the Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin, New Zealand. (Photo By Brendan Moran/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

As the Rugby World Cup approaches head coaches across the globe are sharpening their pencils and their axes, as they go about the ruthless business of selecting a 33-man squad to travel to France.

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While world no.1s Ireland may have one of the most settled squads going, Andy Farrell will be faced with confronting questions and the inevitable uncomfortable conversations with disappointed players as he whittles his squad down to 33 men from 42.

While there are still two Summer Nations Series warm-up games against England and Samoa in which Farrell can offer final auditions for players, here we’ll try to predict what Farrell’s likely final travelling party will look like.

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With an increase of two players from previous World Cup squads, Farrell will likely use the luxury to pick three scrum halves and six props.

With this in mind, it’s unlikely Farrell will drift from tried and tested trio of Jamieson Gibson-Park, Conor Murray and Munster’s tyro Craig Casey. Connacht’s Caolin Blade, who’s currently part of the training squad, misses out here.

If Farrell does go with six props as we predict, he’s unlikely to deviate from his Six Nations propping roster which includes Andrew Porter, Tadhg Furlong, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, Tom O’Toole and David Kilcoyne.

At hooker there is a clear daylight between Dan Sheehan and Ronan Kelleher and the rest, with it coming down to a shootout between fellow Ulster men Rob Herring and try-scoring rookie Tom Stewart. Herring’s experience will likely trump the impressive Stewart’s late bolt for the plane.

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The second row and back row are where things start to get interesting. With Tadhg Beirne and Ryan Baird both able to cover lock and six, it gives Farrell plenty of wriggle room. The only bone of contention here is whether he makes room for Leinster bolter Joe McCarthy, who has impressed with the province this season but who has precious little Test experience with just two test caps to his name off the bench.

There is also Kieran Treadwell to consider, although the Ulsterman made just one appearance during Guinness Six Nations this year, off the bench against England. While he’s been used sparsely down the years, five of the six matches he has featured in have been against South Africa, New Zealand or England.

So if Farrell goes for one of McCarthy or Treadwell, then he might be odds on to take the versatile and highly rated Baird as a nominal back row, which would see the perennially unlucky Gavin Coombes and Connacht’s Cian Prendergast missing out. Coombes, who’s more of specialist No.8 although has covered six and even second row in the URC, may become the sacrificial lamb here, with the likes of Josh van der Flier, Jack Conan, Caelan Doris and Peter O’Mahoney effectively undroppable.

It’s also tough on Prendergast, who was a standout from the bench against Italy last weekend.

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If Farrell does select Baird as a second row and selects him ahead of McCarthy, then it does open up room for Prendergast or Coombes to go. With South Africa on the menu, the added heft of McCarthy may push Farrell towards the 6’6 Baird as a six.

The apparent fall from grace of former second fiddle Joey Carbery makes the flyhalf slot relatively straightforward with Johnny Sexton, Ross Byrne and Jack Crowley – who can cover centre in a pinch – the obvious three stand-off selections.

Ciaran Frawley
Ciaran Frawley /Getty

Three of the centres selections are no-brainers, with the only question being whether or not Ciaran Frawley can make a case to be included ahead of Ulster’s Stuart McCloskey in the centre or Keith Earls amongst the outside backs.

Frawley certainly offers something different to his fellow centres; he can kick and has the ability to cover 10 and 15, making him an ideal candidate for the 23 spot on a six-two split-bench, or as a starter at centre against the likes of pool-stage opponents Romania and Tonga, allowing him to scoot across to centre or fullback if needed.

It could come down to whether or not Ireland management views Frawley more as a flyhalf or a centre. He’s started 67 per cent of matches to date in the midfield, with 28 per cent coming at ten and just six per cent at fullback, although he came on at fullback against Italy last weekend in Dublin.

If he is taken primarily as a centre, it’ll be hard lines for McCloskey, the Bangor Bulldozer, who has done little wrong in green.

Another question for Irish management is if they are keen on four specialist centres, does the multi-tool Frawley then replace specialist winger Keith Earls – who hasn’t played centre for Ireland in years and who has played just 13 per cent of his rugby at 13 – in the outside backs.

The fact that other head coaches are only taking two flyhalves to the tournament and that Jack Crowley and Jimmy O’Brien also offer cover in the centre and at fullback, where both have started at the provincial level, also plays against the need for Frawley’s versatility.

Although Sexton will obviously get game time against Romania and Tonga due to his warm-up ban, all things being equal in the likely pool deciders against the Boks and Scotland, Sexton starts with Byrne on the bench at 22. Then the question becomes who’s the best number 23: specialist centre Aki, or the catch-all utilities like O’Brien or Frawley.

What’s also clear is that there will be more rest periods at this Rugby World Cup than at any other previous iteration. Ireland will have a full two weeks between playing South Africa and Scotland on the 7th of October, meaning player fatigue due to a short turnaround time won’t be an issue towards the end of the pool stage.

Jacob Stockdale
Jacob Stockdale /PA

The selection of Jacob Stockdale versus Earls is another battle the Munster man faces.

Stockdale was very busy against Italy in the opening warm-up in Dublin last weekend, but a particularly conspicuous missed tackle on Lorenzo Pani will have badly damaged his cause. There have always been niggling question marks around Stockdale’s defence and his poor attempt to stop the smaller man will only reinforce the unwanted ‘poor defender’ tag, something that Farrell as a former defence coach will be acutely aware of.

Farrell is also a known fan of Earls and his 99 caps for Ireland bring with it a wealth of experience. Barring something happening in the next two warm-ups, we predict Farrell will go with the Moyross native and his proven finishing abilities.

Elsewhere in the outside backs, Munster winger Calvin Nash and Leinster’s Jordan Larmour seem up against it in trying to break into the outside backs department, where we reckon the aforementioned Earls, Mack Hansen, James Lowe, Hugo Keenan, Jimmy O’Brien will get the nod.

Leinster’s Jamie Osborne deserves a mention here, albeit this World Cup might have come a little early for the 21-year-old, who is yet to make his Ireland debut.

Here’s our prediction for the Ireland 33-man squad.

Hookers: Dan Sheehan, Ronan Kelleher, Rob Herring

Props: Andrew Porter, Tadhg Furlong, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, Tom O’Toole, David Kilcoyne

Second rows: James Ryan, Iain Henderson, Tadgh Beirne, Joe McCarthy

Back rows: Josh van der Flier, Jack Conan, Caelan Doris, Peter O’Mahoney, Ryan Baird

Scrumhavles: Conor Murray, Jamieson Gibson-Park, Craig Casey

Flyhavles: Johnny Sexton, Ross Byrne, Jack Crowley

Centres: Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Ciaran Frawley

Outside backs: Mack Hansen, James Lowe, Hugo Keenan, Keith Earls, Jimmy O’Brien

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Comments

4 Comments
G
Gary 709 days ago

I think you are spit on. I think Porter is in ahead of Herring..!!

N
Noot 710 days ago

It hasn't been years since Earls played centre for Ireland, it's been 6 days. He shifted to outside centre when Calvin Nash came on.

Farrell has shown a tendency to change up his squad significantly for the toughest game, with roughly the same 23 playing in each one. So, him bringing a lock with two caps to play against the reigning world champions seems very out of character. Kieran Treadwell is much more likely to travel than McCarthy, in my opinion.

Most other countries have preferred to bring 19 forwards and 14 backs, so I think Frawley the utility back will miss out in favour of Prendergast the utility forward (who showed on Saturday that he can cover openside as well as 6, 8 and lock). Crowley has started at 12 for Munster and also covers fullback, so Frawley is probably the player to miss out if Farrell goes with the same squad split as other coaches have.

R
Rob 710 days ago

I don't believe the author actually watched that game as he also said that Frawley came on at fullback despite it being clear to anyone watching that he was playing at 10 and Crowley moved to fullback.

On your McCarthy point while I agree, Farrell has shown a tendency to back fringe players to perform and has rarely been wrong so I wouldnt be surprised if he took McCarthy but we'll have to see how Treadwell gets on in the next two games if he plays.

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P
PL 27 minutes ago
Lions Tour Aussie takes: Bigger is better, the stars who failed to fire

I find it interesting that journalists who have done nothing in rugby comment on selections & coaching like they are experts

Concussive injury’s will remove insurance cover from the game unless their is strict application of the laws designed to remove MND Parkinson’s and CTE from the game


Head on head I saw red to Adam Coleman as tackler for Irish while unconscious on a stretcher - concussions occur without twitching on the ground or the wobbly boot - I know I had maybe 20 from rugby


The officiating of last feet is non existent

The lack of effective wrap by Lions front rower & that decision had a close relationship with ordure in a toilet

A head on head tackle red for Coleman not even penalty lead to a try in a phase or 2


Powys v Evans lead to a £> 2 mill verdict against the ref personally special leveraged to Hiuse of Lords

Refs will stop reffing with no insurance then no game


About 5 years ago 4 or 5 French colts died from head hits in elite club games - that led to below sternum law - hamlets honoured in breach not observance

Last feet non existent - enforcement favour flowing rugby nor lions meat grinder forwards get momentum and puck & drive NZ Vowel noise


The UK Class Action could be very well be lost WRC will try every dirty trick in case they already used dial a neuros to argue the unarguable is law gossip


I reffed ref coached & assessed for ruffly 17 seasons


The application of laws is like a zig zag on speed

Line out laws not enforced scrums tight pulling loose down one side mirror on other side elbow pointing to ground stretch marks on jersey

Der moment the refs need to go Soec Savers

My bet unless they stop lack of intestinal fortitude game management


Yellow every time head contact or above sternum


Needs sterner GMGs material impact removed set piece caterpillar remove

Last feet to last feet + 1 m


When I reffed I kept them well apart - hated me till they got over yellow and they actually had fun & complemented me post game backs had room and pick and drive had momentum


As for intentional foul play like tackle in air auto red no replacement 100,000 fine player 250,000 club


Treble it for international 26 week suspension & it’s disappear over night

25 were scrum for dissent


Penalty all this rubbish shots at opponents after error


All the s.ite would disappear


The pathetic unsportsmanlike behaviour would lead to standards


Remember Les Boyd’s penalty re Brohman -if that is the way we treat foul play but while foul play with potential serious injury with a feather duster like we are the game is destined to no insurance following that no refs cause would you risk bankruptcy like Powys v Evans

1 Go to comments
S
Soliloquin 1 hour ago
Why New Zealand learned more from their July series than France

For Fischer, many people in France are still doubting him - it’s the first time he has a full season (31 games). Before, he was always injured at some point. He’s 27, so not the youngest, and you have a younger Boudehent or Jégou behind.

His physicality is incredible, but he didn’t prove he’s got hands. He just proved he was able to defend like a beast.

But you know, even Cros has improved his handling skills lately, so it’s never too late!

And he will play the Champions Cup with a solid Bayonne side, so let’s see!


I don’t agree with ‘only Fischer’: Brennan proved he’s a great 4/7 utility player, and Galthié likes those very much (Woki or Flament). He’s 23, playing for Toulouse with high concurrence, so the prospect is good. I rate him higher than Auradou, who had a few games in the 6 Nations.

For Depoortère, he had a more silent season than the previous one - injured at the worst moment during the Autumn Tests series - but came back strong with a Champions Cup and a solid partnership with Moefana. What could save him would be to start playing as a 12 when Moefana isn’t there, bulking up and become the new Jauzion.

But he’s 22 and an incredible talent at 13. His height makes me think he had more potential than your fan favorite Costes or the utility player that is Gailleton.


As for Montagne or Mallez, with the lack of quality in props, they could find a spot!

Especially Mallez who’s got a good spot to get behind Baille at Toulouse. Neti isn’t the youngest and hasn’t an international level.


And again, as Ugo Mola said, you never play with your best team.

So 30-32 player is more of a 38-40, so you need back-ups.

France knows very well how useful they can be during RWCs.

236 Go to comments
S
Soliloquin 1 hour ago
Why New Zealand learned more from their July series than France

Hastoy was a good prospect before the 2023 RWC, he was the fly-half who led La Rochelle to the victory in the Champions Cup final in Dublin against Leinster.

But he made it to the squad only because Ntamack got his ACL.

He played against Uruguay, which a terribly poor game by the French side, and since then he declined a bit, alongside his club.

Under the pressure of Reus and West at 10, he regained some credit at the end of the season (among all a drop at the 81st minute of a game).

He’s quite good everywhere, but not outstanding.

He doesn’t have the nerves, the defense and the tactical brain of Ntamack, the leadership and the creativity of Ramos or the exceptional attacking skills of Jalibert.


I really hope that:

-Ntamack will get his knee back. The surgery went well. He wasn’t the most elusive player in the world, but he was capable of amazing rushes like the one against NZ in 2021 or the Brennus-winning try in 2023.

-Jalibert will continue to improve his defense. He started working hard since March (after his defensive disaster against England) with a XIII specialist, and I’ve seen great moments, especially against Ntamack in the SF of the Champions Cup. It’s never too late. And it would be a great signal for Galthié.

-Hastoy will build up his partnership with Le Garrec, that La Rochelle will start a new phase with them and Niniashvili, Alldritt, Atonio, Boudehent, Jegou, Bosmorin, Bourgarit, Nowell, Wardi, Daunivucu, Kaddouri, Pacôme…

236 Go to comments
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