Risk isn’t worth the reward for new Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt

Here we go again. Sound the alarm and let the rugby world talk because January 19, 2024, will go down in history – for better or worse – as a landmark day for Australian rugby.

Rugby Australia has revealed that former World Rugby Coach of the Year Joe Schmidt will step into the role as the Wallabies’ third coach in as many years.

Schmidt, who rose to near-legendary status during a historic six-year stint with Ireland as their head coach, has penned a deal until at least after next year’s British and Irish Lions Tour.

There’s no denying that Joe Schmidt is good for the Wallabies, but whether the Wallabies are good for Joe Schmidt remains to be seen. It’s a tough coaching assignment with a lot of risks but plenty of rewards.

The systemic issues that have plagued the Wallabies and Australian rugby are tough for any coach to manage, just ask Eddie Jones.

When then-Wallabies coach Eddie Jones appeared at the Sydney Sevens almost 12 months ago to the day, practically every fan at Allianz Stadium was caught still in a state of awe.

Jones was supposed to be the saviour the Wallabies needed after almost a record-setting year of defeats in 2022, but as we now know, it didn’t quite pan out that way.

Wins over Georgia and Portugal offered a glimmer of hope, but the Wallabies were no match for teams once considered to be on their level. Under Jones, they lost seven of nine Tests last year.

But one fateful September night in Lyon will live on forever for all the wrong reasons – somewhat defining Jones’ horror run with Australia.

The Wallabies were handed their worst-ever defeat at a World Cup by Wales. Warren Gatland’s men ran away with a 40-6 victory, and  Jones was asked about links with Japan after full-time.

Deny, deny, deny. Months later, Jones was unveiled as Japan’s new head coach in Tokyo last month, but the 63-year-old has his reasons.

“My commitment to Australian rugby has been 100 per cent. I did want to go on. Coaching a team is a bit like being in a marriage, you need commitment from both sides,” Jones told Nine News.

“I was committed to changing the team. Rugby Australia at the moment cannot activate the changes, financial and political, to make real change in Australian rugby.

“I don’t like to be in projects where I don’t think they can really get to where they need to get to and I’ve made that decision.

“Rugby Australia probably doesn’t think that and that’s where the unity of our project is not in the place it needs to be.

“Sometimes you go in the bank and blow it up but you don’t come out with the money.”

Rugby Australia, to their credit, appears to taking steps in the right direction. With new people coming into various roles, you could argue now is the best time for Schmidt to join Rugby Australia.

But it won’t be a quick fix – and that’s what makes this so risky for Schmidt.

Much like Jones, Schmidt isn’t the first coach to inspire hope within Australian rugby circles before a ball is kicked. Remember Robbie Deans? Remember Dave Rennie?

Both men came into the Wallabies’ setup with Super Rugby-winning experience, but their stints aren’t generally looked at with fond memories and they aren't unanimously deemed to be successes.

Robbie Deans won 55.56% of his 75 Tests, but left the role after losing the British and Irish Lions Series 2-1 in 2013.  There would be no Bledisloe Cup glory for New Zealand-born Deans, either.

Dave Rennie lost two-thirds of his Wallabies’ Tests. Even with a record that included two wins over the world champion Boks in 2021, Rennie’s reign fell well below expectations.

Both men are now coaching in Japan's Rugby League One.

What the history of Jones, Deans and Rennie tells us is that the Wallabies are a tough team to master as a coach. It’s been quite some time since anyone was able to.

But if Schmidt can’t get it right, it’s hard to see who could. Now that's concerning.

It’s 20 years of damage that the Wallabies will look to rectify before the Lions. If they can’t win that series, or at least put up a fight, it’s hard to see how Joe Schmidt's input won’t be seen as another failure.