Rugby Pass Podcast: The Return Of The Brumbies

Vaai is finally having his breakout year getting comfortable and showing great form at lock, and there are form players and experience all across the backrow, why on earth would you drop him to 6. Ridiculous

So far, the All Blacks have won 8 matches out of 11 this year. That is a near 73% win rate. AB fans and, I assume, the team itself are not content with that and have everything to play for with the remaining 3 tests this year.

Their historical average is something like 77% these days and, although some years will always be better than others it is not likely to drop that dramatically to 70% any time soon. There is too much historical inertia on the stats. It is like saying Ireland’s form of the last 10 years or so is likely to reverse a historical average of 48% wins soon. It just isn’t.

Moreover, when you say they are ‘doomed’ to a 70% flatline are you not just assuming that Ireland will beat them again? How did that work out for you last time?