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Scotland's best chance at slaying the Pool B giants

(Photos by Levan Verdzeuli and David Rogers/Getty Images)

Scotland’s will go as underdogs into their Rugby World Cup opener with the defending champions but they have enough in their game to trouble the Springboks.

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To get the win will require something special but they have the man to do it, Finn Russell, who will need to produce a game similar to the third British & Irish Lions Test.

Scotland can win if they take the Springboks strengths away and play low phase, quick width rugby fuelled by the right kicking strategy.

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The key is to avoid long phase counts with the ball where they will be jammed by the defensive line and eventually forced into the Boks’ back row, but also keep the ball in-play for as long as possible.

The attrition game that Ireland will attempt will not work for Scotland.

If Malcolm Marx is starting with the likes of Duane Vermuelen and Siya Kolisi, these poachers will eat Scotland alive. They can’t play a collision game and get turned continually late or midway through the phase counts.

Scotland will need to kick a hell of a lot, but keep the ball in-play, avoiding touch finders coming out of their own half.

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This is something that Russell does frequently anyway, using his long kicking game to kick deep down the middle to find grass while Ali Price and Ben White need to find contestables with the box kick.

During the Lions series the Springboks could not handle aerial contests with Duhan van der Merwe on the left hand flank. South Africa’s backfield caught zero balls when going up against the towering ex-pat.

Each of those spills offered the Lions the chance to regather possession and strike against the retreating defensive line or drill another kick deep for territory.

Scotland need to exit with a contestable kick each time, preferably from the left side with Van der Merwe leading the kick chase to get up in the air.

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Head-to-Head

Last 3 Meetings

Wins
3
Draws
0
Wins
0
Average Points scored
25
13
First try wins
100%
Home team wins
33%

This is South Africa’s biggest weakness and it must be targetted.

Willemse can have poor nights under the high ball and Le Roux’s height disadvantage is ripe for mismatches. Bomb the living daylights out of the Boks’ backfield.

When the Boks get the dropsies the heads drop and they lose their intensity, plus the best opportunities to strike come from these errors.

Then there is the short kicking game, needed to disarm the defensive line, which is perfect for Russell’s skillset, the No 10 with all the bag of tricks.

The dinks, the chips, the grubbers must be used inside South Africa’s half. The opportunities will come after the regather, and that is when Scotland must hit width immediately and find the strike weapons like Van der Merwe.

Russell must kick so much that he will be in the running for the golden boot award.

At Mt Smart during the Rugby Championship, Shannon Frizell’s barnstorming try came on the phases after a Beauden Barrett chip kick in-behind that was regathered by Richie Mo’unga.

The 10 metre gain from the chip kick left the Springboks defensive line in retreat mode, with zero line speed and disconnection all over the place.

Will Jordan spotted two tired props from way across the field, tracking from his right wing all the way to the other side to hit a ball off Aaron Smith to pierce this gap.

The Sione Tuipulotu-Huw Jones combination is key with the No 12 also possessing a short attacking kicking game required to get in behind the Springboks line. Jones is a good line runner who is perfect for the chase.

With kick options off 9, 10 and 12, they need to use them before the phase count gets high and find the space in behind.

When Scotland get the chance to launch from set-piece lineouts in decent field position, they must keep play inside either of the 15 metres tramlines.

Do not crash into the midfield and try and run forward pods around the corner.

The only plays that attack the middle of the field from lineouts should be first phase kicks in behind to turn the Springboks around straight away.

There are only two options on first phase with the ball-in-hand: attack the lineout seam inside the 10 channel or attack wide outside the 13 channel with a backs’ strike.

For attacking the seam there are two throws, a deliberate overthrow or a throw at the front at two. South Africa will give the front for free. Take it, maul, peel, and attack the seam.

South Africa will try and drive you over the sideline if you maul at the front of the lineout. This is desired as it will open up the highway up the seam and put a number of their forwards on the ground.

The peel must be ready and able to detach fast to prevent being bundled into touch. Detach and draw into contact the tail defender, often the Springbok hooker, Marx or Mbonambi, sometimes Mostert, who defends there.

If this defender is drawn, the seam will be wide open. Scotland must send their power runners like Duhan van der Merwe into that channel at Mannie Libbok’s inside shoulder.

After that there will be a wide open side on that second phase, it must be backs ball with Russell injecting to use the front foot ball with a quick recycle.

Strike plays utilising Russell’s long passing game or cross-field kicks that can hit the width are required.

Hit the seam then go straight to the edge all day long. Quick, short, sharp possessions.

Inside South Africa’s 22 consider being tackled into touch frequently. Of all the non-scoring negative outcomes, this is tactically one of the best.

A turnover penalty gives South Africa a free piggyback out of that zone with possession. Being held up loses up to 50 metres of territory from the goal line restart.

Being tackled out into touch within 15 metres of the try line will force the Springboks into a two-phase exit kick and hand Scotland another launch.

Rinse repeat the same formula until you score out wide or keep getting tackled into touch. Van der Merwe can win 5-10 metres through post-contact every time before going into touch. When he gets within scoring distance, he can have a crack.

To win Scotland need to achieve these things:

1) minimise the Springboks breakdown threats (low phase counts, low amount of middle third rucks)
2) minimise the opposition scrum count
3) Create frequent aerial battles and kick coverage situations to defend
4) Attack wide frequently and early

This kind of plan isn’t foolproof as every high ball contest or loose bouncing ball could end up in South Africa’s favour, but what it does do is increase the chance of a Scotland win. And that’s all you can ask for.

Getting dragged into a set-piece battle or a collision battle will fail. With a 6-2 or 7-1 split, all of South Africa’s power is all up front.

Scotland need a game plan that basically takes the socket out of the wall and turns that power off.

And they have Finn Russell, the perfect player to orchestrate that.

They need to go over them, then around them, and avoid everything else in between.

 

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Comments

31 Comments
S
SK 687 days ago

Ben I disagree. The way to beat the Boks is with possession rugby and launch phase after phase and wear that defence down. keep the ball for multiple phases until the defence breaks. The contestable kicking strategy and attacking with width is an interesting one. I will say the Boks have been beaten there in the past but I feel you need to blend it with possession. The Bok team that lost to NZ earlier this year was completely underdone. This Bok team will be ready for the plan you described. Scotland havent trained a possession game the last 4 years so that they can now go and change that at this stage. They need to play like they did against France a few weeks back and then I reckon they have a shot

R
RD 687 days ago

Ben and then you woke up from this horrible nightmare, Scotland must first get the ball before they can even think of what to do with it, and when they get it they have two or three Boks on top of them, as good as Russel is and he is very good it is not easy playing behind a pack of forwards going back words.

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RP 688 days ago

Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face-Mike Tyson.

J
JE 688 days ago

This is a good analysis. Sometimes Ben struggles to hide his disdain, but this is not it. If Saffas puke on everything he writes, you/we are as painfully subjective as we accuse him of being...

d
dk 689 days ago

Go Ben. That's some detailed thinking there. Scotland looked good against France and have a very smart coach in Gregor. I think SA would win this match 8 times out of 10. Here's hoping this is one of the 2.

C
Chris 689 days ago

This is exactly what the B & I lions tried and we all know how that worked out. Scotland simply do not have the forwards to play the kick and hope game. The kick in behind didn’t work for the All Blacks at twickenham, so there’s a very small chance of it being successful if at all.

S
Sam 689 days ago

"they have the man to do it, Finn Russell, who will need to produce a game similar to the third British & Irish Lions Test."


Which they lost.


Ben Smith talks a very good fight.

B
Bob Marler 689 days ago

Good luck Scotland.

W
WK 689 days ago

It’s an interesting article. Lots of merit in what Bin Smut has written here. We all know that teams often play as well as their opposition allow them to. Finn is a magic player and conjure something special. So can Manie… Duhan is a powerful runner, but Moodie is a brilliant defender and a magic attacker. It all promises to be a fascinating game. To everyone giving Bin Smut grief. Just ignore him…

J
Jonathan 689 days ago

The only issue is that you are giving the ball to DW/Kolbe with those kicks. They are brilliant on attack, only a matter of time before they break the line.

F
Flankly 689 days ago

"Scotland can win if they take the Springboks strengths away".


This is also my plan for out-running Usain Bolt. I'll just take his strengths away and it will be quite easy.

S
SF 689 days ago

There will be 2 teams on the park on Sunday, Ben Smith. I would love the Scots to fire those up and unders at Kolbe and Moodie. They will run rings around vd Merwe and Co.

I must admit though, I'm more worried about Scotland than Ireland.

All in all - if the Boks play at their best, the Scots have no chance.

Erasmus and Nienaber will spring a surprise or two on the Scots

B
Briain 689 days ago

I think Scotland are seriously underrated and basically have only got better since the six nations, they look fitter and stronger. They beat France and ran them close a week later any team that underestimates them will do so at their peril. I'm also amazed no one has written any articles about the permutations if Ireland, Scotland and South Africa all lose one match which is highly possible

G
GG 689 days ago

Andrew, every country has these guys, we have Keo and a few others, and in the north they have Goode and others. Real rugby men don’t write crap, they discuss with respect, write with intelligence and are mutually appreciated. An example is Schalk Burger, someone who has played at the highest level. So don’t get uptight about Ben, every shed needs a tool.

B
Ben Smith is a Dick 689 days ago

"A former financial analyst & auditor in retail banking" that is all Ben Smith is, did he sell audit a sport shop once and then think I can become a rugby columnist? This kiwi is a joke

C
Chris 688 days ago

So much hate.....go back to the EJ and Farrell articles if you don't like when people try to talk about rugby.

Seriously this is a weak comment...

G
GG 689 days ago

Going to be so lekker to light a fire on Friday evening, settle in with a cold one, and tan a few tjops on the braai. Someone please translate for Ben. Would actually be great to have Ben over for the braai so he can share our love of rugger, and realize that we respect all sides, actually love the All Blacks, and hope the best side wins.

G
GG 689 days ago

Must admit I cannot wait for the games to begin, so we can stop reading all this nonsense and focus on reality. The reality is that there are this year a number of sides with a bloody good chance to progress, some in the one half of the draw which probably should not and would not advance had the draw been done later. But it is what it is. The group with Scots, Irish and the Boks is going to be huge, and whoever gets through that one is going to face either ABs or France. Tough half.

P
PW 688 days ago

Yeah, old Ben... He's become a keyboard coach now. Trying to get Scotland upbeat for the Boks. Good luck old Ben.

L
Lyall 689 days ago

Agree its on the day

Who turns up to play

I want the referee’s to let the game flow… of course penalise for dirty play

But let it flow play the advantage rule keep it going

G
GG 689 days ago

Ben, so chuffed the Boks play rugger. It has given you a reason to be a journalist and a purpose. Everyone needs a purpose in life.

P
Paul 689 days ago

🤣 😂 🤣... you just called Ben a journalist 🤣

G
GrahamVF 689 days ago

So Ben is advocating the boring Springbok game he has complained about for years?

B
B.J. Spratt 689 days ago

Ben Smith: Sorry Ben, if you think the Worst Loss in All Black History is a blessing of some kind and South Africa has done the All Blacks a favour I want to know what you are on, cause I want some!


Belief Patterns take a few minutes to be destroyed and at least 21 days to re- establish with a lot of work.

N
Ninjin 689 days ago

So they must play rugby league against the Bokke? That's just not rugby.

R
Rusty 689 days ago

Wishful.thinking....Boks know exactly how Scotland will.play.

S
Snash 689 days ago

After all the work Ben has given him, Duhan is going to be exhausted in the last 20 mins when Bok back three will run him off his feet. And/or put Canaan on his wing - Duhan's contesting stats will plummet. Scotland's next biggest problem is Ireland on 8 Oct - the probable pool decider. Boks will be cooling their heals for the 1/4s from 2 Oct.

P
Peter 689 days ago

Your mother's poes !!

D
Daz 689 days ago

Ben Who? Silly clickbait child. Rugby and the top teams are way bigger than one inglorious spotlit brat, no one the world takes notice of anymore. Rugby and the names on the William Webb-Ellis will remain until eternity. Unless he charms and wizens up he will be discarded like last years used half-time orange slice.

...just saying..

G
GH 689 days ago

Aai ou Benna. Dat een mens nou die Bokke so baie kan haat.

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