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Should Ireland Be Favourites To Win The Six Nations?
By Lee Calvert
Joe Schmidt’s Ireland squad should have everyone very worried – especially England, writes Lee Calvert.
If a statistician was to do some form of analysis on Ireland’s 2016 the line of best fit for their form would start to trend upwards somewhere around the final game of Six Nations, when they cut loose vs Scotland, continue this trajectory through their close-fought June series in South Africa, then smash through the roof with that defeat of the All Blacks in Chicago in November.
Their 2017 could be even better. As they head into the Six Nations, the squad that beat New Zealand has been bolstered with some serious new talent.
For so long, Ireland’s fortunes were dependent – far too dependent some would say – on the form and presence of Jonny Sexton, whose only backups were the mansize fuzzy felt Ian Madigan, the horrific Ian Keatley or the toddler-faced unformed talent of Paddy Jackson. What 2016 clearly showed is that Jackson has now realised his potential: Ireland appear something close to the same team when he is the pivot as when Sexton is there. This is a heartening development as the Leinster ten once again has an injury niggle to sweat over.
Since Ireland's historic victory over the All Blacks in Chicago the form of three of their provinces has been good-to-outstanding. The only spanner in the works being Ulster, who are playing like they’ve had their brains wiped by a freak radiation accident.
Munster, who have bounced back incredibly from the shocking death of legend Anthony Foley, qualified for the European Champions Cup quarterfinals along with Leinster, while Connacht missed out by the narrowest of margins. Much of this achievement has been due to the form of the experienced Ireland internationals in their ranks.
Robbie Henshaw is playing brilliantly since his move to Leinster; CJ Stander is so good every week that they might as well give him the man of the match award while he’s taking his pre-match dump; Iain Henderson is single-handedly holding the Ulster pack together. Conor Murray and Sexton continue to be top drawer as do Peter O’Mahoney, Tadhg Furlong and any other you care to name. Even Rob Kearney looks back to decent form, something that early last year looked about as likely to happen as Donald Trump changing his hairstyle.
Added to this has been the form and burgeoning class of the new generation. Ireland have been in a transitional period for so long that it was easy to imagine that they would never come out of it; that not finding players to replace the like of Brian O’Driscoll would be a permanent state of being. But on recent showing it appears the light at the end of the long transition tunnel is growing brighter. Garry Ringrose is oozing top-level class in the centre for Leinster alongside Henshaw and this is perfectly-timed given the injury to Schmidt midfield favourite Jared Payne. Young loose forward Jack Conan is a special talent, Ultan Dillane continues to look the real deal and young Munster wing Andrew Conway is a huge part of the province’s turnaround.
This all-round form, alloyed with having one of the best coaches in the business and home fixtures against both France and England means that despite England being odds-on, Ireland should really be the favourites to win the tournament. It will likely all come down to the last weekend when England roll up to Lansdowne Road. It promises to be some match.
IRELAND SQUAD
Forwards: Finlay Bealham (Connacht), Rory Best (Ulster), Jack Conan (Connacht), Ultan Dillane (Connacht), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster), Cian Healy (Leinster), Jamie Heaslip (Leinster), Iain Henderson (Ulster), Billy Holland (Munster), Dave Kilcoyne (Munster), Dan Leavy (Leinster), Jack McGrath (Leinster), Sean O'Brien (Leinster), Tommy O'Donnell (Munster), Peter O'Mahony (Munster), Donnacha Ryan (Munster), John Ryan (Munster), Niall Scannell (Munster), CJ Stander (Munster), Devin Toner (Leinster), James Tracy (Leinster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster).
Backs: Tommy Bowe (Ulster), Andrew Conway (Munster), Keith Earls (Munster), Craig Gilroy (Ulster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), Paddy Jackson (Ulster), Rob Kearney (Leinster), Kieran Marmion (Connacht), Luke Marshall (Ulster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster), Luke McGrath (Leinster), Conor Murray (Munster), Tiernan O'Halloran (Connacht), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Rory Scannell (Munster), Jonathan Sexton (Leinster), Andrew Trimble (Ulster), Simon Zebo (Munster)
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Latest Comments
The boy needs to bulk up if wants to play 10 or 11 to handle those hits, otherwise he could always make a brilliant reserve for the wings if he stays away from the stretcher.
Go to commentsIn another recent article I tried to argue for a few key concept changes for EPCR which I think could light the game up in the North.
First, I can't remember who pointed out the obvious elephant in the room (a SA'n poster?), it's a terrible time to play rugby in the NH, and especially your pinnacle tournament. It's been terrible watching with seemingly all the games I wanted to watch being in the dark, hardly able to see what was going on. The Aviva was the only stadium I saw that had lights that could handle the miserable rain. If the global appeal is there, they could do a lot better having day games.
They other primary idea I thuoght would benefit EPCR most, was more content. The Prem could do with it and the Top14 could do with something more important than their own league, so they aren't under so much pressure to sell games. The quality over quantity approach.
Trim it down to two 16 team EPCR competitions, and introduce a third for playing amongst the T2 sides, or the bottom clubs in each league should simply be working on being better during the EPCR.
Champions Cup is made up of league best 15 teams, + 1, the Challenge Cup winner. Without a reason not to, I'd distribute it evenly based on each leauge, dividing into thirds and rounded up, 6 URC 5 Top14 4 English. Each winner (all four) is #1 rank and I'd have a seeding round or two for the other 12 to determine their own brackets for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. I'd then hold a 6 game pool, home and away, with consecutive of each for those games that involve SA'n teams. Preferrably I'd have a regional thing were all SA'n teams were in the same pool but that's a bit complex for this simple idea.
That pool round further finalises the seeding for knockout round of 16. So #1 pool has essentially duked it out for finals seeding already (better venue planning), and to see who they go up against 16, 15,etc etc. Actually I think I might prefer a single pool round for seeding, and introduce the home and away for Ro16, quarters, and semis (stuffs up venue hire). General idea to produce the most competitive matches possible until the random knockout phase, and fix the random lottery of which two teams get ranked higher after pool play, and also keep the system identical for the Challenge Cup so everthing is succinct. Top T2 side promoted from last year to make 16 in Challenge Cup
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