Springboks can still win World Cup with Plan B

The best thing about a bulletproof strategy is that there is little need for another one. Four years ago in Japan, South Africa bulldozed their opponents on their way to glory. Sure they lost to New Zealand in an epic contest that doesn’t get nearly the amount of airtime it deserves, but they hammered England, who only the week before trounced the All Blacks.

What Rassie Erasmus was up to was no secret. The Bomb Squad arrived with all the subtlety and secrecy of a herd of elephants crashing through the African bush. It made a lot of noise and did a lot of damage. But you knew it was coming. You could probably set your watch to its arrival on the hour mark.

The pandemic impacted every country in the world but it was particularly harsh on South Africa. Strict lockdown measures meant the Springboks were forced to watch on as the rest of the rugby world returned to action. One columnist on this site has suggested that Jacques Nienaber, who replaced Erasmus as head coach after the World Cup triumph, was doing the equivalent of “sitting in a sauna” while he “sat on a perch with the [world number one] ranking frozen for [his team] like a boxer trying to pick fights to keep his belt.”

This is an egregious misunderstanding of the dynamics in the country where countless businesses folded and the economy tanked. Many Springboks used their platform to help the country at large, most notably Captain Siya Kolisi who hand-delivered food packages to needy families around Cape Town.

Nienaber’s first game in charge was a hastily arranged warm-up match against Georgia ahead of a British & Irish Lions series that was almost scuppered at the 11th hour. This was hardly an ideal backdrop to blood new talent, forge a new identity and implement an alternative strategy as the defending champions embarked on their next World Cup cycle. Despite defeat in an ugly first Test, the Springboks leaned further into their pragmatic and pugilistic style to take the series 2-1.

South Africa's Springboks head coach Jacques Nienaber (white cap) gestures next to hooker Bongi Mbonambi (#2) after defeating Argentina's Los Pumas during their Rugby Union test match at Jose Amalfitani stadium in Buenos Aires, on August 5, 2023 in preparation for the upcoming 2023 Rugby World Cup in France. (Photo by JUAN MABROMATA / AFP) (Photo by JUAN MABROMATA/AFP via Getty Images)

There may be more important things in sport than winning, but inspiration and entertainment are more easily found on victory parades. And though the Springboks’ record against the other top five ranked nations in the world over the last four years is short of what it should be, the players and coaches have always had this World Cup defence as their primary target.

They’ve run France and Ireland close on their own patch and have beaten New Zealand. They’ll have to beat all three over the next month and half to win back their crown and there is every chance that they will. But in order to do so, they must fast-track and advance a game-plan that might have previously been considered their Plan B.

The loss of Handre Pollard cannot be underestimated. Besides Antoine Dupont for France, he is the most instrumental figure in any side with realistic ambitions of lifting the Webb Ellis Cup in Paris.

Pollard is South Africa’s most accomplished fly-half in the professional era and could also be the most complete 10 in the Springboks’ history. Whether he’s playing soft touches around the fringe and in the tight channels or dictating the tempo of the game from deep with range-finding kicks, he is the quintessential general on the pitch. He has the heft of a centre and is often used like one, charging at the line and providing stability on defence in the midfield. He can also clear out a ruck if required and fulfils that task better than any other fly-half in the world.

But he’s failed to prove his fitness and so Manie Libbok, a 26-year-old with less than 10 Test caps to his name, has been selected as the only bonafide 10 in the Springboks’ squad. He’s a Super Rugby winner and a supremely gifted athlete. He attacks the line, has a natural understanding of space around him and brings in runners off his shoulder better than anyone else available.

However, he is a very different sort of 10 to Pollard and there, despite some wild arguments the Boks don’t actually need a fly-half but merely a goal kicker, the game around Libbok has to change.

In short, Plan A must be shifted to Plan B. With Libbok driving the bus, certain other positions in the backline ought to adapt as well. Willie le Roux’s importance is heightened as he would not only add value with ball in hand but would help provide Libbok with an extra set of eyes and an experienced brain behind them. Le Roux already marshals the back line and will be asked to step up at first receiver even more than he would have had Pollard stayed fit.

Andre Esterhuizen might be a better option at 12 than regular starter Damian de Allende. Both achieve their primary function by barnstorming over the gainline but the former does so in a more brutalist manner. This is of course reductive and diminishes the all-round traits of both players, but there is no denying Esterhuizen has a leg up on his teammate when it comes to sheer heft.

That means a more creative player is needed at 13. Damian Willemse has enough quality to fulfil this task but Canan Moodie would seem to be the ideal candidate to replace the injured Lukhanyo Am. Like Jaque Fourie, Moodie has started life as a Test rugby player on the wing and the backfield but will surely transition soon. The upcoming clash against Wales would be the perfect opportunity to test out a new centre combination.

With this blend of guile and grunt outside him, Libbok would be able to play off either foot and in either direction. Still, he must be encouraged to express himself and has all the tools to ignite a Springbok backline that has been showing signs of their enterprise, but must now make the switch to an expansive and dynamic plan.

Plan B - the former Plan A - will always be available. The pack is still among the best and most powerful in the world. Once the ball emerges from the morass a wholly fresh blueprint must not only be implemented but trusted as well.