Springboks' hopes of defending World Cup rest on getting Am call right

Let’s work under the assumption that Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber wouldn’t waste around £3,000 (or R70,000) of SA Rugby’s money on a needless business class flight from Johannesburg to Paris.

There must be a reason they called upon the services of Lukhanyo Am to replace the injured Makazole Mapimpi. Well, only two reasons, really. Either he has made the 11 hour trip to carry tackle bags and water bottles, provide moral support and offer his services on the training pitch. Or the Springboks coaches are planning on shoehorning him into the match-day 23 as the defending champions gear up for a quarterfinal against France in Paris.

Only the former makes sense. The second could be disastrous for South Africa’s World Cup title aspirations.

A quick caveat before we continue. At his best, Am is one of the game’s best players. Not just one of the game’s best midfielders but one of the best anywhere on the park. His reading of space on both attack and defence is almost telepathic. He marshals a backline with Napoleonic control and combines natural athleticism with the softest of hands and the most delicate touches. They could replace rugby balls with quail eggs and Am would would go the whole 80 minutes without breaking one.

That is Am at his best but we he hasn’t been anywhere near that for some time. Between 2018 and 2022, he was making a serious claim to being the greatest outside centre in South Africa’s post-isolation period. No-look passes, behind-the-back-offloads, try-assists and a highlight reel bursting with wonder plays became his forte.

But two knee injuries - the first in September 2022 and the second in August this year during a World Cup warm-up match against Argentina in Buenos Aires - curtailed his progress. He wasn’t a spent force, but there was a clear lack of sharpness in both action and thought.

In a way he is a victim of his own success. It is only against his own ridiculous standards that we judge him. But elite sport is a cruel business, and taking a gamble on him now would be folly.

“Anyone who is in the squad will put their hand up for contention,” said Felix Jones, the Springboks assistant coach who pulled a play from the RassNaber book by keeping all eventualities open.

"We'll see how he rocks up and how he performs in training over the next two weeks. He's been doing a graduated return from his injury. We've been in contact with the Sharks' medical staff about strength and conditioning in terms of the amount of rugby he's been getting through at training. He's been tracking very well and that's why we've selected him.”

Jones continued: "Lukhanyo is quite an experienced player and he's been part of the group for many years now. I think we can agree that when Lukhanyo's at his best, he can slot into any team, and we will be banking on his experience and ability."

There’s that caveat again and the word ‘if’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting. The truth is the Springboks can’t afford to gamble on a player even a fraction off the pace in the crucial slot at outside centre. Their defence is built around a frenetic blitz that is often ignited by the man at 13. Jesse Kriel has become the leader of this rush in Am’s absence and the stats show that when Kriel starts, the Springboks concede fewer line-breaks, make more tackles, concede fewer entries into their own 22, concede fewer points per the opposition’s entry into their 22 and they win more turnovers, a consequence of their tackle dominance and ability to isolate ball carriers.

Whether or not Antoine Dupont plays in that quarterfinal, France will look to cut their way through or work their way around the onrushing men in green. Canan Moodie is one of the most gifted and exciting young talents in the world, but he was twice exposed by Tonga when tasked with the job of defending the outside centre channel - by all accounts one of the toughest assignments on a rugby pitch.

Kriel has to start against France. With a 6-2 bench split being the most likely approach the Boks’ coaches will take, there is simply no room for Am. One of those backs has to be a scrum-half with Cobus Reinach in the driver’s seat given his extra pace and ability to cover wing. And the other member on the bench has to either have a turn of pace or possess the attributes to run a backline. Even if the Boks go 5-3 to better accommodate both Manie Libbok and Handre Pollard in the match-day 23, they would still have to start Kriel at 13.

So, where does this leave Am? And, more to the point, why exactly was he included in the squad when selecting a hooker might have made more sense?

Now we’re getting into intangibles. The Springboks are a team that runs on vibes and narrative. Am’s inclusion, and indeed his own arc, from world-beater to injured outcast to returning hero, is worthy of an episode in a documentary series.

There’s already a video doing the rounds on social media of Siya Kolisi greeting Am on the training pitch. South Africa’s captain wears the look of someone stumbling upon a long-lost mate on a deserted beach somewhere. He can barely contain his joy and the pair embrace like Morgan Freeman and Tim Robbins at the end of Shawshank Redemption.

Selecting a player for the gees - Afrikaans for spirit - has been done before and to good effect. Bobby Skinstad’s contributions off the field during the triumphant World Cup of 2007 were more important than anything he did on the pitch in France. The same is true of Schalk Brits and his role in 2019.

Besides carrying tackle bags and replicating the attacking patterns of the French midfield, Am could play that role over the next fortnight. If he does, South Africa might get the energy boost needed to beat the hosts on their own patch. Anything more, though, and Am’s 11 hour return flight might come sooner than was hoped.