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Stats show just how much Folau is missed at the Waratahs

Israel Folau and Michael Hooper

Maybe there isn’t hope for the NSW Waratahs beyond Israel Folau after all.

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At least not until they find a way to pick up the slack from Super Rugby’s all-time leading try-scorer.

As the suspended Folau prepares to fight for his career at a Rugby Australia code of conduct hearing in Sydney on Saturday, the Waratahs flew out of Sydney on Sunday to fight for their season on a two-game tour of South Africa.

Already reeling from a demoralising 23-15 home loss to the Sharks on Saturday night, the Waratahs lost Wallabies hooker Tolu Latu (calf), prop Rory O’Connor (ribs) and flanker Jack Dempsey (back) for crunch matches against the Bulls and Lions on the high veldt.

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Lock Jed Holloway also remained in Sydney ahead of his SANZAAR code of conduct hearing after being sent off for striking Sharks prop Thomas du Toit during the Waratahs’ forgettable first outing at Parramatta’s plush new Bankwest Stadium.

As if being down on big, aggressive forwards to take on the South African brutes wasn’t bad enough, damning statistics show how badly the Waratahs are missing not only Folau but also Taqele Naiyaravoro since the barnstorming winger defected to the English Premiership after last season.

Between them, Folau (11) and Naiyaravoro (15) bagged almost half of NSW’s 59 tries in 2018.

Even after being stood down for his controversial social media posts, Folau remains the Waratahs’ top try-scorer this campaign with four from seven games.

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From an average of almost five tries a game last year, the Waratahs are down to an average of less than three a match in 2019 – and have crossed for only two in both outings since Folau was suspended.

Waratahs coach Daryl Gibson admits there’s no quick fix for his side’s attacking woes.

“A lot of that try-scoring (last year) came out of two blokes – we acknowledge that,” Gibson said.

“But we seem to be putting ourselves in position to score tries and not taking them as w ell as we could.

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“We had some nice field position early in that game (against the Sharks) – two missed lineouts overthrown at the back and we’re not capitalising on those critical moments and not executing that stuff.

“And when you’re short of try-scoring, that’s going to hurt you.”

The Waratahs’ latest stumble left last year’s semi-finalists four points behind Australian conference leaders the Melbourne Rebels, who have already made the testing trip to South Africa.

“We’re certainly at a critical juncture. The season’s thrown a lot at us and it’s going to require us showing a great deal of resilience,” Gibson said.

“We’ve got a two-week tour now and it’s very clear what we need to get from that tour.”

AAP

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N
NH 35 minutes ago
'The Wallabies need to convert much better - or Melbourne could be much worse'

Nice one as always Brett. I think the stats hide a bit of the dominance the lions had, and they would look alot worse in that first half when the game was more in the balance. You mention it here but I think it hasn’t been talked about enough was the lineout. The few times the wallabies managed to exit their half and get an opportunity to attack in the 1st half, the lineout was lost. This was huge in terms of lions keeping momentum and getting another chance to attack, rather than the wallabies getting their chance and to properly ‘exit’ their half. The other one you touch on re “the will jordan bounce of the ball” - is kick chase/receipt. I thought that the wallabies kicked relatively well (although were beaten in this area - Tom L rubbish penalty kicks for touch!), but our kick receipt and chase wasn’t good enough jorgenson try aside. In the 1st half there was a moment where russell kicked for a 50:22 and potter fumbled it into touch after been caught out of position, lynagh makes a similar kick off 1st phase soon after and keenan is good enough to predict the kick, catch it at his bootlaces and put a kick in. That kick happened to go out on the full but it was a demonstration on the difference in positioning etc. This meant that almost every contested kick that was spilled went the way of the lions, thats no accident, that is a better chase, more urgency, more players in the area. Wallabies need to be better in who fields their kicks getting maxy and wright under most of them and Lynagh under less, and the chase needs to be the responsibility of not just one winger but a whole group of players who pressure not just the catch but the tackle, ruck and following phase.

17 Go to comments
J
JW 50 minutes ago
Competing interests and rotated squads: What the 'player welfare summer' is really telling us

Thanks for the further background to player welfare metrics Nick.


Back on the last article I noted that WR is now dedicating a whole section in their six-point business plan to this topic. It also noted that studies indicated 85-90% of workload falls outside of playing. So in respect to your point on the classification of ‘involvements’ included even subs with a low volume of minutes, it actually goes further, to the wider group of players that train as if they’re going to be required to start on the weekend, even if they’re outside the 23. That makes even the 30-35 game borderline pale into insignificance.


No doubt it is won of the main reasons why France has a quota on the number of one clubs players in their International camps, and rotate in other clubs players through the week. The number of ‘invisible’ games against a player suggests the FFRs 25 game limit as more appropriate?


So if we take it at face value that Galthie and the FFR have got it right, only a dozen players from the last 60 international caps should have gone on this tour. More players from the ‘Scotland 23’ than the more recent 23.


The only real pertinent question is what do players prefer more, health or money? There are lots of ethical decisions, like for instance whether France could make a market like Australia’s where their biggest rugby codes have yearly broadcast deals of 360 and 225 million euros. They do it by having a 7/8 month season.

68 Go to comments
LONG READ
LONG READ Competing interests and rotated squads: What the 'player welfare summer' is really telling us Competing interests and rotated squads: What the 'player welfare summer' is really telling us