Super Rugby Pacific 2024: Crusaders to crumble, Brumbies will shine

The RugbyPass Round Table writers answer the big questions ahead of the 2024 Super Rugby Pacific season.  Ben Smith (BS), Finn Morton (FM) and Ned Lester (NL) weigh in on a range of topics and make their predictions for the season.

Which teams will be the best and worst Kiwi sides?

Ben Smith: The Crusaders have long been the benchmark for the entire competition under Scott Robertson, but they have looked off the pace in their pre-season fixtures.

Yes, it's only pre-season but without Richie Mo'unga, the best player in Super Rugby for about seven years straight, the Crusaders are officially in re-build mode under Rob Penney. Other key losses include strike weapon Leicester Fainga'anuku and stalwart lock Sam Whitelock.

The best side will be decided between the Blues and Chiefs, with the Auckland-based club looking the best so far in pre-season. The Blues have looked slick in Japan with a host of young players gelling under first year coach Vern Cotter. The new version of Caleb Clarke looks in ominous form with a slimmer frame adding more speed.

Last year's runners up Chiefs are expected to be strong but have lost a number of key players. Sam Cane is on a sabbatical, Brad Weber and Brodie Retallick have gone overseas. They still have a strong young pack with Samisoni Taukei'aho, Ollie Norris, Josh Lord, Tupou Vaa'i, Luke Jacobson, and a star-studded backline with plenty of strike power in Damian McKenzie, Shaun Stevenson, Emoni Narawa.

The Hurricanes are potentially going to be the worst of the Kiwi sides with only one true star player in Jordie Barrett. After receiving a pre-season shellacking from the Highlanders, it does not look promising. Ardie Savea will miss the entire season on sabbatical and they have a new head coach.

The Highlanders look like they've improved from last year's disastrous season. Some young homegrown talent combined with some smart signings, Timoci Tavatavanawai and Tanielu Tele'a, poses a threat to the other sides.

The Canes and Landers will fight it out to avoid being New Zealand's worst performing side.

Finn Morton: Every Super Rugby Pacific squad looks a little bit different in 2024. With legends departing and youngsters eager to forge their own legacies, now is the time to stand up and be great. But when it’s all said and done, the Chiefs will reign supreme.

The Clayton McMillan-coached Chiefs fell painfully short of championship glory last time out – the fairytale end to a practically perfect season wasn’t to be. With the best forward pack in New Zealand leading the way, the lethal halves combination of Cortez Ratima and Damian McKenzie will work wonders as they’re unable to unlock the very best of a star-studded backline.

But when there’s a winner, there must be a loser. No, that’s not referring to the ‘runner-up’ in the New Zealand conference necessarily, but rather the heavily-favoured hare who will fall well short of expectations, hype and history.

The Crusaders are the hare that will lose badly in the race against the Chiefs. Without the likes of Richie Mo’unga, Sam Whitelock, Leicester Fainga’anuku and coach Scott Robertson, this team will struggle to establish their own identity – as seen in spurts during their Northern Tour to Munster and Bristol.

In the absence of Mo’unga, coach Rob Penney must turn to unestablished playmakers Taha Kemara or Rivez Reihana – at least until Fergus Burke returns from injury. With a backline that may include the likes of Ryan Crotty and Manasa Mataele, with all due respect, the Crusaders will struggle to keep up with the flair and youth of their Kiwi foe.

Ned Lester: Championship pedigree is so often forged in the throws of a devastating loss, and for the Chiefs, they’ve earned their stripes and have now claimed the favourites tag to win the competition.

The squad were on fire in 2023, and the confidence of going nearly undefeated over 18 weeks mixed with the sourness of being pipped at the final hurdle is a potent concoction, ripe for going one step further. Out of all the Kiwi teams, the Waikato squad are the best placed to replace their departing All Blacks, with a small army of quality locks to step in for Brodie Retallick and a hot contender for All Blacks duties in Cortez Ratima to replace Brad Weber.

The absence of Sam Cane will be noticeable but at least partially obscured by the continued growth of Samipeni Finau and Luke Jacobson, however after boasting the strongest reserve unit in the competition in 2023, the team’s losses will be most felt in the final 20 minutes, and that is a concern to their title aspirations.

On the flip side of that coin is the Highlanders, a squad that waved goodbye as 16 players walked out the door following the 2023 campaign. 16 players. That’s a lot.

The team’s improvement in performance from their first pre-season match (a 36-28 comeback win over Moana Pasifika) to their second (a 52-19 thumping over the Hurricanes) was impressive, while simultaneously implying the need to keep pre-season results well within pre-season context - given it was the Hurricanes’ first crack of the year.

The young Highlanders looked enthused, hungry and capable of finding their dangerous runners via their two quality playmakers at 10 (Ryhs Patchell) and 12 (Sam Gilbert), but a sustainable recipe for success has got to be considered some time away for the team yet.