Super Rugby Watercooler: What's going to happen at this SANZAAR meeting?

There's a lot to talk about as we head into Round 3 of Super Rugby – and Scotty Stevenson is across it all. Here's the low down.

In the Trenches in the Tron

The Chiefs did everything in their power to reinforce their reputation as the street-corner bullies of Super Rugby last weekend. They harassed the Blues at the breakdown, almost made them cry with the kind of well-aimed, old-school verbal abuse that would make a coal miner blush, and, as has become their signature move, tackled every Blues player who got within 30 metres of the ruck, whether they had the ball or not. It was beautiful stuff; like watching a President’s Grade team filled with former gang members take on the local Marist Colts.

Well, good luck pulling that shit this weekend. The Hurricanes may be famous for their flair but it’s the improvement of their forward pack (take a bow John Plumtree, Richard Watt and Dan Cron) that has been the real secret to their title success. They won’t be so easily cowed into submission in Cowtown, so to speak.

Look, we all know the ‘Canes haven’t exactly been under a lot of pressure in the opening two rounds, but what is interesting – and what makes this team a very tough proposition for the Chiefs – is their set-piece scoring conversion. Of the 24 (I mean, come on!) tries they have scored so far, nine have come from lineouts and five have come from attacking scrums. A further two have come from scrum steals, and five more from turnovers won. In other words, 21 of their 24 tries have come from messing up opposition forward packs.

For their part the Chiefs have scored 9 tries this season and wouldn’t you know it, six have come from lineouts, two from turnovers, and one from a scrum steal.

I know we could talk about almost every one-on-one match-up ahead of Friday night, but I’m picking this result boils down to an old-fashioned game of chicken. The team that blinks first in the set piece and contact areas loses.

Beaver!

Reason 243 for watching Friday’s game.

A heavy burden for the Highlanders

There once was a time when you could be committed for suggesting the Highlanders would beat the Blues at Eden Park. It was the sort of thing only a lunatic, or maybe Highlanders super-fan Steven from Dunedin, would consider. It has happened but, like finding a watchable Adam Sandler film or not losing at least one sock in the weekly wash, it remains a rare occurrence.

So uncommon is a Highlanders victory in Auckland that you can count them on one foot. Of a sloth. They have only thrice beaten the Blues at Eden Park – in 2002, 2012 and in 2015.

As if that past record wasn’t a tough enough hurdle for the Highlanders, there is also another more telling statistic that will be adding to the stress levels of the side ahead of Saturday’s showdown: Only two teams – the Bulls in 2005 and the Chiefs in 2009 – have made the playoffs after starting a season 0-3. Worse, the maximum number of losses for any New Zealand team that made the playoffs last year was four. You don’t want to be using those up this early in the season.

Resilience may be a Highlanders hallmark, but with Liam Squire (knee), James Lentjes (elbow), Jason Emery (Achilles) and Ben Smith (concussion) all out or still under medical review, they will need more than that to defeat the Blues this week.

Bryn Gatland to the Crusaders

So let me get this straight. Now Scott Robertson can choose between starting Bryn (Hall) and Bryn (Gatland) at nine and ten, or Mitch (Drummond) and Mitch (Hunt). Well, that clears that up then.

It reminds me of a time when every name in the Crusaders backline started with ‘M’. There was Marshall, Mehrtens, Maddock, Matson, Mayerhofler, and MacDonald. The only outlier was Caleb Ralph, who decided to fit in by calling himself ‘Malfie’ instead of ‘Ralphy’.

Australia will be the stick in the mud

The SANZAAR nations meet today in Ireland to nut out the future format of the Super Rugby tournament, and it looks unlikely that Australia will budge on its desire to retain five teams in the competition.

It is understood NZ Rugby is chairing the meeting, which is reason enough for Australian CEO Bill Pulver to vehemently disagree with any suggestion his union should sacrifice anything. Australian Rugby has long taken a contrary stance to anything New Zealand Rugby has desired, and things don’t look like changing here.

The Rebels – the only privately owned team in Australia (and owned by a New Zealand businessman no less) will survive the cull. Australian Rugby would be on dangerous legal grounds if they were to sell a licence only to later support the team’s removal. The Force are currently fighting a rearguard action, in much the same vein as New Zealand’s provinces did during the review of the domestic competitions several years ago: by pleading with fans to come out in numbers to home games.

The Reds and Waratahs – the heartland sides of Australia’s East Coast rugby base, will be under no threat, which leaves the Brumbies as the other team potentially for the chop. It would be an incredible move to cut the most successful Australian side in the competition’s history, but after a couple of seasons of boardroom battles and financial strain, it is very much feasible.

Odds are that Australian rugby sticks to its guns and refuses to cut a team.

That leaves the South African conference as the sacrificial lamb in this decision. That’s an incredibly weird sentence to be writing given the fact South Africa’s access to broadcast revenue and time-zone equivalence with Europe have long seen them the true power broker in the SANZAAR model.

As mentioned in the Watercooler last week, the Kings and the Cheetahs are the obvious choices to go based on a triple whammy of financial struggles, historical underperformance, and limited fan appeal.

What if Australian Rugby won’t budge?

It seems clear that the ideal result for the competition would be to return for now to a 15-team competition, which would look something like this:

New Zealand Conference: Blues, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Crusaders and Highlanders

Australian Conference: Reds, Waratahs, Brumbies, Rebels and Sunwolves

South African Conference: Bulls, Lions, Sharks, Stormers and Jaguares

If the ARU retain all five teams, a Super 16 is still a distinct possibility, but quite where that leaves the Sunwolves is anyone’s guess. The Sunwolves surely aren’t going anywhere given the revenue access they offer SANZAAR, and the Jaguares are in a much similar position in terms of building markets.

A Super 16 would be a logistical nightmare, although it is fair to say that would be nothing new for this competition.

What Australian Rugby wants, and what it needs

The Watercooler understands there are some private ownership interests in New Zealand who would rather leave Australia to their own devices and concentrate on closer ties to the South African sides. There are so many things wrong with this argument that we don’t have time to discuss them. The obvious one from a New Zealand fan point of view is the horrendous ordeal of trying to watch games at 3 am in the morning.

We have spoken to several parties in Australian rugby, all of who have close connections to the major teams. Each is adamant that for Super Rugby to grow in Australia, they must focus on derby games and the trans-Tasman rivalry factor. The clubs want the June window gone, and who could blame them? The June window is arguably the worst thing about the Super Rugby format, yet the appeal of internationals means most fans have been willing to let this preposterous schedule slide.

If Australian Rugby is serious about giving the Super Rugby competition the space it deserves, there is no use in hanging on to all five teams. This is the reality they will be grappling with today.