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The All Blacks are comfortably the world's third best team right now
By Ben Smith
Two nations have lead the way in terms of winning and taking the game forward with enterprising play over this World Cup cycle.
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Those two Test sides are Ireland and France, both grand slam champions over the last two years in the Six Nations.
France completed an undefeated calendar year in 2022 while Ireland completed a historic series win in New Zealand before going on to complete a grand slam in early 2023.
It must be said that Ireland is more innovative than France, possessing a detailed attack unrivalled in the game. In the last chapter of Johnny Sexton’s career they have taken it to a level no one saw coming after the departure of Joe Schmidt.
France possess brutality and physicality up front and have produced some mesmerising tries through the genius play of Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack.
Both of them have logged wins over all of the Southern Hemisphere powers over this cycle, France has a 5-2 record against the Rugby Championship teams while Ireland is 6-1.
Ireland’s Six Nations clash against France in February remains the best game of the year so far as the newly crowned global leaders went at it in a titanic battle.
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They are both clearly a cut above in Europe and only one challenger from the Southern Hemisphere has emerged.
The All Blacks‘ run through the Rugby Championship could not have gone any better.
Argentina and South Africa were put away before halftime. The Championship title was sealed early in the second half in Melbourne when Caleb Clarke crashed over and Scott Barrett put his finger up to signal quiet time.
But the false signal for the All Blacks is none of these opponents are remotely in the same league as Ireland or France.
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What the Wallabies dished up in the first half in Dunedin with their attack is what France will do for 80 minutes, except instead of Tate McDermott running the show it will be Antoine Dupont.
McDermott failed to finish a would-be try that would have put the game beyond reach by getting caught on his back sniping down the blind side.
Dupont wouldn’t likely be so forgiving with the strength of a back rower and the vision of a playmaking flyhalf.
The All Blacks close rivals do not offer the same challenge that shutting down Ireland requires. The intricate Irish attack is not replicated anywhere else.
The Springboks’ attack was dialled down to their caveman setting with forward runners coming around the corner in the first half. A test of physicality but nothing else. No special reads required. Even a bit of width in the second half did catch the All Blacks out down Mark Telea’s edge.
There was a lot of gamesmanship at Mt Smart going on by the Springboks, not revealing much, but even at their best South Africa don’t run a ton of screens, don’t have detailed and timed running lines and don’t have well-designed scheme to create space.
Australia showed glimpses of a destructive power game over both Tests with the likes Will Skelton, Rob Valetini, and briefly Taniela Tupou.
They bashed over the gain line to build front foot ball but only could capitalise on it for 10 minutes out of 160 over two Tests.
They wasted so much prime attacking ball, not knowing when to hit the release to the backs to take the All Blacks when they were stretched. Often they would carry one time too many and ended up turned over or held up.
They possessed some dangerous individuals like Mark Nawaqanitawase and Jordan Petaia who created for Andrew Kellaway on the occasion, but the threats weren’t sustainable. When other Wallaby players had to combine to create, there wasn’t enough chemistry or high level skill.
Despite the improvements shown, the Wallabies are a side trying to implement new systems and coaching philosophies at the 11th hour and as such, weren’t going to be a finished product.
Over the last month the All Blacks have faced nothing like what they would face should they come up against Ireland in a quarter-final or France in the opening pool game.
The changes made to the All Blacks coaching staff following the Irish series have no doubt made the All Blacks a better team.
They are in a better place than 12 months ago and you would think the gap has narrowed with the top two nations.
New Zealand will be competitive, they always are, but until proven otherwise they will head in as underdogs against France and are comfortably the world’s third best team.
This didn't age well.
And is that confidence justified i n the light of the AB's demolition?
"What the Wallabies dished up in the first half in Dunedin with their attack is what France will do for 80 minutes".
I wonder what the author thinks of that comment after watching France v Scotland last weekend? Both teams playing rubbish for 40mins, no intensity, meandering to set pieces (I don't think I saw one single player sweating - despite the heatwave), a giant snooze fest despite what the scoreline and result would indicate.
Why are there so few games played between NH and SH teams these days? It does my head in. The All Blacks haven't played France in 2 years and yet here we are about to watch them play South Africa (yet again)...in England!
It amuses me how most are concerned about the ABs , the concern shud be with Northern Hemisphere it's been 20years for them , while you praise Six Nations and world rankings that means nothing .
Six Nation grand slams and world rankings don't win RWCs , Simon Middleton and Sara Hunter will tell you that , only hard work , fitness skill and teamwork and most of all DESIRE.
Good summary. Rugby Championship level not up to Ireland and France currently. So bigger tests to come. AB's in a much better position to challenge than expected though, with a lot of the weaknesses addressed, so those match ups will be tasty.
France would have assumed their B team was enough but clearly they're not as good as they thought they were. Their youth falls short of the "experience" necessary to win a home RWC. Powerful forwards with who I'd consider the best halfback in the world, imho they could make the final. Ireland, being ranked #1 must overcome a lot of pressure - once again - to win. All stats say they will fail and imho I agree. With Leinster losing the final, I feel less confident about Irelands' ability and stranglehold on world rugby. ABs are peaking and their attacking style this year is a clear strategy to play at pace. Still room for improvement which means curtains for anyone else. The 2nd test over Aussie is a misnomer as 9 frontline changes was always going to influence that result, yet still they won. Bookies have the ABs as favourites and so do I. Saying the Southern Hemisphere teams are not good competition is ludicrous however as we have won 8 RWCs out of 9.
Ben - this article will not age well
I'm more than happy with the underdog status, can't beat it for motivation for the All Blacks.
France literally just lost to Scotland and Ireland was average vs Italy. If the ABs did either of those they would be getting killed right now.
Like just managing to beat a battered Aussie in the last minute?
The team is finally clicking, the midfield pairing is firing, the Richie + Beaudy set up looks potent, Will Jordan on the wing, Aaron and Codie have regained their lost form and look better than they have in years, Scott Barrett is on fire, we finally have good options at Blindside, Sam Cane is in great form this year, Dane Coles is the perfect bench Hooker, Tyrel Lomax has given us an edge in Scrums that I haven't seen in a long time, Ardie is evergreen.
I don't think much will separate the top 3 teams, arguably the All Blacks are peaking at the right time, France are coming off a loss and I'm pretty sure that it's illegal for Ireland to win a quarter final.
Probably the most competitive world cup yet, the teams we aren't talking about have pretty easy roads to the Semis so teams like Argentina, England, Wales, Australia, Japan, Fiji and even Georgia all have a realistic shot at the quarters.
reading all comments below, Ben Smith seems to know how to push some people's buttons here 😂
France and Ireland are performing well there’s no doubt.
But they have no World Cup wins under their belts where as Boks and All Blacks have 6 combined so one could argue that they are not superior. Let’s see how those teams absorb the pressure of WC this time as being ranked number One means very little when it comes to this tournament. Underestimate the southern hemisphere teams at your own peril. Just remember who all were in the semi finals played in the NH in 2015 and who was rather absent. I think southern hemisphere rugby dominated from memory. History would suggest your article is flawed but only time will tell I guess. Good luck to everyone though.
I don't beleive the ABs give a hoot where their ranked in the world (No2) they are building nicely and are unbeaten in their first four international test this year sweeping aside the Aussies, Argies & the Bokkies and they haven't even hit there straps still tweaking & fine tuning there game to bring to the WC beware they will be a threat proven 3 times take them on at your peril and good luck
You mean by running screens the Irish obstruct the defence. Under pressure they're going to get that wrong and get penalized. On the day France will be more than capable of knocking them out and will if given the opportunity. Ireland won't want to play the Allblacks in the quarter after what went down in NZ last year. France won't sustain 80 minutes like the Wallabies first 30 in Dunedin as the Allblacks A side won't allow it.
What's that supposed to mean? Ahh, I can see you must be replying to points in the article but can't imagine why the Irish won't be brimming with confidence at facing the AB's.
So you expect just one of the SH team's to win their match and France to knock out Ireland in the quarter? Just in case the Irish are the AB's bogey team?
I'm afraid were not going to see the Irish penalized when they get their lines wrong, running behind teammates or ahead of the carrier, if we haven't already.
Perfect. Way too few articles like this, writing the Boks off. We need more brilliant analyses of how teams with lower RWC win ratios are self-evidently superior to South Africa. More material for the changing room wall, please.
South Africa won the last world cup by beating Japan, Wales and England...come on.
Ben Smith comfortably the worst blogger out there. I think the All Blacks are the form team right now both Ireland and France should have lost to Australia and South Africa in the autumn and were helped by a few questionable decisions should we say. The hype over France and Ireland is too big. It’s between the traditional rivals NZ v SA and I’m predicting them to meet in the final and avoid each other in the QFs
World Cup will come down to key injuries and red/yellow cards.
Not much I can see between top 3s first 15s but who has the better 2nds?
Yup, agree. The RWC is “festival” rugby at a knockout tournament so regardless of form over last 3 years, no result is guaranteed. A key factor will be consistency and accuracy from the referees.
What is this tripe? Is the author trying to reassure himself? Good luck to France and Ireland, anyway. Let’s see how they enjoy the pressure.
There is no doubt that France and Ireland have been playing well Ben but you have them on quite a high pedestal. To dismiss Argentina, Australia and SA as not remotely in the same class as France and Ireland does those nations a serious disservice. 🤔
The central issue I have with this article is the assertion that "the All Blacks have faced nothing like what they would face should they come up against Ireland in a quarter-final or France in the opening pool game.”
They have faced both Ireland and France in the last couple of years, however, and will have more experience of these two teams playing at their best than vice versa.
I also think psychology is going to be important in the earlier stages of this WC. NZ have some confidence in their record, yet there is going to be a lot of heaped pressure on a team like Ireland who have never progressed beyond the QF before. France have also never won the WC outright and the expectation will be huge in front of a home crowd. South Africa have not, as a matter of fact, beaten New Zealand in a World Cup match since 1999!
One of the most infamous taunts in WC history was George Gregan’s ‘Four more years’ at a time when NZ were desperate to win a tournament they seemingly kept choking in each time. It piles on the pressure, regardless of what players and coaches may publicly say. Curiously, NZ are feeling less pressure than they usually get because the expectation is less than usual and they don’t have anything to prove.
What does “France have never won a World Cup outright” mean? Has France ever won a World Cup some other way?
You’re talking absolute horseshit about New Zealand not being under pressure to prove anything. The NZ public don’t expect anything less than for the ABs to win it. That the ABs are looking decent and are now 2nd in the world - all pressure. Especially running into their bogey teams Ireland and France in their “tough draw”.
If there’s one thing I wish our NZ friends would get - is that in SA , losing to a NH team is a disgrace. We hate it. We take losses against NZ well. We’ve been booted out of world cups at the hands of Australia and New Zealand. There’s some honor in that for us - because the WC has been owned by the SH from its inception. SH rugby has been the best for generations.
England is the only NH team to beat SA in a World Cup. Ever. And long may that last.
The quintessential underdog outlook.
If you don't think they are putting themselves under more pressure than normal due to their recent failures and first time losses, not less, then I can only say one thing... "she'll be right".
After their horror, clunky start, the Bok team were able to start reeling the All Blacks in without much trouble. And a Wallaby B team that is spluttering from being completely rebuilt almost from scratch, nearly rolled them.
Considering France have only won ONE test and lost 14 versus the ABs in their last 15 encounters perhaps articles like this are just rubbish. Also, the last time the favoured Ireland team played the ABs at RWC we spat them out 14-44 in the 1/4s. To be fair, there's zero credible data to predict anything. Particularly with the ABs now finding their groove under the revamped coaching team.
Ireland fell apart after Schimdt told them he was abandoning them before the World Cup. A very cunning kiwi dirty trick to undermine them.
Ireland & France have been winning lots of games outside of the RWC, and are probably favourites, but the favourites don't always win WCs. NZ have a habit of winning games they shouldn't, and Ireland has a terrrible history of knockout games.
More than any team, the ABs know that RWC favouritism means zilch.
Third best team? The ABs are champions-elect!
I agree I think it's good but also motivating for the kiwis to be 3rd. But ultimately there minds will be about winning thay world title which I fully believe they are a capable of redeeming themselves from 2019. Can't wait to see thay first test against France gonna be a big game!
Well, the All Blacks are so comfortably the third best team in the world that they are currently ranked as world number 2 ahead of France!
They are actually more like 4th as the Boks have overtaken them after experimenting. Once Erasmus takes over from Neinbar again the Boks will improve 25% at least. Or 5th really given the Wallabies are improving exponentially.
Yeah, 2 is the new 3 apparently.
And 3rd is a perfect position to be in come RWC. Always bet on black!
Ireland and France have not faced the new level of intensity the ABs are developing, we shall see if they can take it. Maybe they can but I suspect it may shock them. Will we win it? Well who knows with RWCs. France must be favourite but we are a real threat.
It will need to, because I don't think theyve got much better at holding teams out.