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The biggest positional holes the All Blacks must address under Scott Robertson
By Ben Smith
The one-point loss in the Rugby World Cup final spelled the end of the Ian Foster era for the All Blacks along with the careers of a host of generational players.
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Veteran locks Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick, halfback Aaron Smith, hooker Dane Coles are finished in black.
First five-eighth Richie Mo’unga and flanker Shannon Frizell are leaving to Japan and will become ineligible for selection as a result.
Ardie Savea and Sam Cane will play sabbaticals in Japan during the Super Rugby season but return for duties with the All Blacks, while Codie Taylor will also take a non-playing sabbatical.
Beauden Barrett, once thought to be finished after signing a one-year deal with Toyota Verblitz, is on the verge of a new deal with NZR through to 2027 to resume his All Black career.
The bulk of the squad will return which means new head coach Scott Robertson will inherit a strong core of players in 2024 with more players pressing for selection through Super Rugby.
There are really only a few key selections for Robertson & his staff to address to plug the known absences.
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The first area of concern is blindside flanker where Shannon Frizell clearly made a difference.
When the All Blacks had him, they were formidable, and when they didn’t, they lacked physicality to match the big sides. For whatever reason, Frizell made the side click over the back half of 2022 and 2023.
However, during his time as Crusaders head coach Robertson saw many different loose forward combinations. He oversaw the transition from a loose trio of Kieran Read, Matt Todd and Jordan Taufua to the likes of Cullen Grace, Ethan Blackadder, Tom Christie and others.
The Crusaders seemed to always find gems in the backrow, underrated players like Wallaby Pete Samu and last year Christian Lio-Willie and Sione Talitui.
If anyone can find the ideal replacement for Frizell with the All Blacks, it will be Robertson and Ryan.
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Samipeni Finau of the Chiefs was a debutant before the World Cup, while Tupou Vaa’i was tried unsuccessfully there against France in the opening pool game. Akira Ioane was a large part of Foster’s plans before being left out of the 2023 squad.
Odds are that it will be a Crusader that fills Frizell’s boots, with Blackadder one of the favourites to become the next starting All Black No 6.
In the second row the All Blacks will undeniably go backward.
Losing Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick, two all-time greats of the game, simply can’t be done without suffering a drop off.
The question is who will partner Scott Barrett, who is world-class and could possibly be Robertson’s pick for captain.
Tupou Vaa’i and Josh Lord were the young pair invested in by Foster’s staff. Both are 22 and 23 years old with plenty of development still to come. If Super Rugby form impresses, Quinten Strange will be in the mix as a bolter.
Of all the uncapped locks in New Zealand, Strange has the frame to play Test rugby and will likely start for the Crusaders most weeks now that Whitelock has retired.
But the forgotten man is Patrick Tuipulotu of the Blues.
In 2020, his play during Super Rugby elevated to a high level as he took on extra leadership at the franchise.
At just 30 years of age there is plenty of vintage years to come after playing the last of his 44 Tests in 2022. He’s back at the Blues and under contract until 2025.
When you lose two world class locks and your best No 6, it stands to reason that the All Blacks’ lineout will have growing pains in 2024. Relying on combinations already formed at Super Rugby level could be the solution.
For the first time in a long time the All Blacks halves pairing is uncertain.
The All Blacks’ most capped halfback of all-time in Aaron Smith has departed leaving a gaping hole in experience and depth.
His back-ups in 2023, Finlay Christie and Cam Roigard, were rotated in-and-out by Foster’s coaching group.
The young Hurricanes’ No 9 was a bolter selection based on a breakout year and offers explosive running from the base.
His style of play is 9-centric, with a lot of taxiing off the base and sniping around the ruck. This can throw out the timing of an attacking shape and might not be suitable in all systems.
Under Robertson the Crusaders never had a running No 9, always preferring pure distributors in Bryn Hall and Mitch Drummond for quick service.
The three best younger halfback prospects in the country at Super Rugby level, Roigard, Folau Fakatava of the Highlanders and Cortez Ratima of the Chiefs, are arguably all running threats.
It remains to be seen what kind of No 9 Robertson wants and will choose, but all three are in the mix.
Who that man will pass to is also a mystery, but Damian McKenzie remains the front-runner after starting at No 10 in 2023 on a few occasions for the All Blacks.
With Mo’unga ineligible (unless the rules are changed) and Barrett not yet signed to a new sunset deal, the Chiefs’ first five-eighth is set to become the guy after signing a long-term deal with NZR.
A bolter selection for a debut is Fergus Burke, the Crusaders’ fullback who will likely fill Mo’unga’s No 10 jersey in 2024 in Super Rugby. His play in 2023 was exceptional and he even became the primary playmaker at times.
Burke will become an All Black, the only question is when. He is in line to become one of the hybrid 10-15 options in 2024, whilst Stephen Perofeta of the Blues can also push his way back into contention.
The exciting young fullbacks in New Zealand, Zarn Sullivan at the Blues and Ruben Love of the Hurricanes, would need to elevate their play significantly to be considered. They have the potential but 2024 might be too early.
The best player in Super Rugby in 2023, Shaun Stevenson, could barely crack the squad who will be looking to add to his one cap, whilst Will Jordan could become the first-choice fullback if he can develop accuracy in his kicking game.
At Test level he has been wayward, kicking out on the full far too much. The reason why Barrett held selection over Jordan in the No 15 role was his ability to manage the backfield and relieve pressure consistently.
Overall, Robertson will inherit a very capable group of All Blacks, most of the World Cup squad with only a few uncertain areas that need answers.
“I believe Reiko will never be a test center to selfish no timing can't read game”
Not only 3 ‘man of match’ performances vs SA, Oz (under Rennie) and England in the last 16 months as a ‘test’ centre but with Leon coaching him in black he will add to his test cap tally.
You clearly dont have any playing experience of the outside back positions if at all at 1st class footy. He is class. Not the complete package by any stretch yet but time is on his side and when ex Crusader/AB’s legends now commentating (Merhtens, Marshall) claim he’s one of the best 13’s in the world during interviews in France then what we couch experts think remains irrelevant huh 🤔
“Now that Whitelock has retired”. Both Sam and Luke Whitelock play for Pau who currently sit fourth in the Top 14; the toughest league in the world. Hardly retirement.
I think there is a common fallacy in a number of these selections which is that teams get selected as combinations, not just individuals. It isn’t just a case of ‘plugging the gap’ with individual players coming in to fill in gaps left by others, but they need to create effective units that set patterns of play.
I’m pretty sure that Tuipulotu, Ioane and Sotutu have had their day as ABs. Been tried too often and have failed to front up. I’m pretty sure that Jason Ryan shares that opinion.
Will be interesting to see if Sotutu can keep his place from Segner. Hard to see a new coach turning the players around, though I will say I think the biggest thing that has been holding Ioane back is the game plan, especially trying to use him on the wing.
You are right there All very over rated players and inconsistent
The handling of the loose trio particularly Samipeni Finau was questionable.
Pulling an injury prone Blackadder who had barely played a match in two years, back in when Finau was already in the travelling non-squad contingent was poor. There’s no room for nepotism at the RWC.
The Twickenham game against SA was the obvious place to test Finau and develop the coverage for Frizzell. Ryan needs to lift his ability to engage a more diverse playing group and sideline his provincial bias.
Pretty sure Finau had been sent back for gametime by that point.
So Ryan shows up and he makes Shannon Frizell (Tongan-born) his first choice blindside, when he is healthy, and you accuse Ryan of not being diverse in his selections? Ryan then publicly criticizes the NZR for letting Frizell sign overseas and states how Frizell’s best days as an All Black are still ahead of him and pushes the NZR to bring Frizell back.
Maybe Ryan just did not think Samipeni Finau after one year of Super Rugby as a regular was ready for the high pressure of World Cup rugby?
Surely Cane is gone, and he has to move Reiko out of the center’s .
Please don’t say so Ennor can be the center.
My question is who do we see as our next 10? After Barrett and Mackenzie are gone? Ruben Love? Stephen Perofeta?
With the preference for 10/15’s it will probably be Sullivan, Perofeta and Jordan.
My opinion on All blacks best 15 next year?
1. Degroot 2. Taukei’aho 3. Lomax
4. Vai’i 5. Barrett
6. Grace 8. Ardie 7. Cane (C)
9. Roigard 10. Barrett (maybe DMac)
12. Barrett 13. Ioane
11. Telea 15. Jordan 14 Stevenson
Incorrect
1 - 8 - [something-something] Barratt
9-5 - best of Tonga, Fiji, Cook Islands, Samoa and Marshall Islands +Quade Cooper (after AUS denied his citizenship)
wonder if Jackson Hemopo would worth getting back?
who?
The chances are that a) Robertson has his own ideas who to pick and b) the Super competition is likely to throw up some variable options anyway.
I think Tuipulotu may be significant for the Blues because if he can solidify what was a shaky front five combination last year, then it may allow some of the jilted Blues’ loosies to start shining in big matches again. They were the big dropouts of 2023.
Chocolate melts in the oven
Which begs the question of why Jason Ryan fails to connect with so many Polynesian players?
🤔 Fergus Burke is no chance to fill Mounga’s jersey — he’s out of Super Rugby with an Achilles injury.
Does who-ever fills Mounga’s jersey have to make the same basic mistakes as Mounga? Im hoping for a good 10 for a change.
Likely to return in mid April.
Looking at Shannon in the final, he was already missing. As with most of his career, there is no consistency. Just 1 completed tackle, and 1 missed in the entire game. Ardie (along with covering for an actual missing cane) was a one man loose trio. Shannon had one exceptional half in his entire career in black. Hopefully we'll find someone better
He probably had more than one good half, but you’re right he was quiet and definitely no Kaino. We are still searching for the type of player who can dominate at the very top level; i.e. WC finals.
He had a quiet night for sure but that is very limited take from one game. He has been instrumental in the ABs complete turn around in line out defence, maul defence, and retention of the ball since his coming of age in the 2022 RC.
It would be an experimental backline, but I would be keen to see a backline of: Roigard (9), Z Sullivan (10), R Ioane (11), L Aumua (12), J Barrett (13), Tela (14), Jordan (15).
Four hard running inside backs to keep the defense from drifting. A hard runner/distributor/punter/cross field kicker at 13 to unlock the back three. An electric back three with pace to burn. Two very powerful punters, with a left foot/right foot combination (10, 13); also, both are very tall and with sternum tackling lots of offloads.
Can guarantee (thankfully) this will never ever happen.