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The ‘rogue’ reason that’s contributed to the NPC’s success in 2024
By Finn Morton
Commentator Grant Nisbett has credited “rogue” results as one reason behind the National Provincial Championship’s success in 2024. Fans and pundits alike have sung the NPC’s praises during a memorable season of provincial rugby in New Zealand.
On Saturday afternoon, Bay of Plenty will host Canterbury in the first of two semi-finals to determine who qualifies for the big dance on October 26. Then, Wellington will take on Waikato in the nation’s capital to determine the other side that will battle for glory.
Bay of Plenty are two wins away from history. The Steamers haven’t won the NPC since the inaugural campaign 48 years ago, but on the back of a famous Battle of the Bays in the quarter-finals, they’ll be full of belief heading into another crunch clash.
But, all four teams are chasing their own slice of history, and they’ll have to do it the hard way. If this season has shown fans anything, it’s that the competition is somewhat unpredictable – there are no easy games, so any result this weekend is truly possible.
Second seed and Ranfurly Shield holders Taranaki were knocked out of the finals last time out in a shock loss to Waikato, and third seed Tasman lost on Sunday in a 62-14 demolition by Canterbury. Anything can happen, and that’s made the NPC so great this season.
“I’ve really enjoyed it actually,” Nisbett said on SENZ’s Afternoons with Staffy.
“I’ve been to some terrific games. Just about every weekend there’s been a total rogue result and I think we saw one yesterday. Whoever who’ve thought that Canterbury would put 60 on Tasman?
“You never quite know these days when you go along to an NPC game who’s going to win it and that’s good, I’ve enjoyed that. Even the teams that didn’t show up in terms of wins towards the end of the season, played some very, very good rugby.
“I don’t think there were any dud teams in the competition this year.
“There’s nothing worse than going along to a game and you sort of already know who’s going to win, it’s really just a question by how much,” he added.
“I also think the standard of rugby has been good… sometimes you might think that the defence is a little bit optional given some of the sores but I’d prefer that to a 6-3 game, that’s for sure.”
Canterbury have a “new lease on life” after their stunningly emphatic win over the Mako at Blenheim's Lansdowne Park. While they were boosted by the return of some All Blacks, who are now unavailable for the semi-finals, it was by no means a fluke.
It was the type of performance that mirrored Canterbury’s traditional dominance in the competition. They’ve tasted championship glory on 14 occasions, and no one should write them off as they go hunting for what would be the province's 15th men's title.
But, Bay of Plenty showed last weekend that they’ll give it everything in order to deliver a title back to Tauranga. Replacement Taine Kolose was the hero last time out as they edged Hawke’s Bay 19-17, and that’s given them plenty to build off moving forward.
Minor premiers Wellington have been a tad inconsistent this season, but they’ll still go into Saturday’s clash with Waikato at Sky Stadium as the favourites. They’ve lost some All Blacks too, though, including Peter Lakai who was called into the national squad on Wednesday.
“I don’t think there’s a lot between these four teams, to be perfectly honest,” Nisbett explained.
“Firstly, of course, you’ve got Canterbury who’ve got a new lease on life. They lose a couple of their All Blacks, of course, but they’ll be full of confidence heading up to Bay of Plenty.
“I’ve really enjoyed the way Bay of Plenty have played this season. They don’t always have the star players but boy, they play with a lot of passion… that game could go either way.
“The game after that, of course, Waikato, who really came from nowhere, not many people have been talking about Waikato all season and suddenly they find themselves in the semi-finals with a big chance of upsetting Wellington who have been a little bit inconsistent.
“… (Wellington are) kind of all over the shop. They don’t have too much consistency… I think both away teams have got a shot at it.”
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Go to commentsI’m not fully convinced this was any sort of deliberate grand plan by SB, other than perhaps a masterful way (as it transpired) of dealing with injuries to a couple of key players in positions that lack high calibre alternatives in SB’s view. Losing Martin and Lawrence was disruptive to the team England ideally wanted and pretty likely both start if they had been able to. Ted Hill clearly isn’t fully trusted, despite being on the bench vs Scotland and Italy, and Slade may have had his day in light of an winger being drafted in to start as Test centre for the first time. Moving Earl to centre is worthwhile, in the right circumstances, as a proving exercise for future reference but it’s not the way to go against any of the top teams.
So they may well have added another page to their emergency playbook but I’m doubtful it was a genuine attempt at cutting edge innovation. More a case of necessity being the mother of invention that happened to suit the opposition on that given day. I guess we’ll know more in the Autumn but it won’t be until next year in Paris that the first real test of that set up would come against a heavy power team, IF it’s still in use ofc…
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