The World Cup cycle does matter, despite what Irish fans think

“There is nothing more intoxicating than victory.” So said Robert Greene, the American author of six international best-sellers exploring power, seduction and the laws of human nature. Triumph is a drug, the argument goes, one that shrouds logic and erases reason.

Not convinced? Go on X and trawl through the self-satisfying messages of Irish rugby fans following their side’s 38-17 win over France in Marseille.

Amidst the standard gloating and schadenfreude typical amongst all sports fans, an odd bit of mental gymnastics played out in real-time. In the heady afterglow of a famous conquest, some supporters seemed hellbent on downplaying the Rugby World Cup.

The theory makes a degree of sense, if you squint your eyes and cock your head at the scene as if looking at a magic-eye poster. The Webb Ellis Cup is up for grabs once every four. The whole event lasts eight weeks. That means, over the course of what has been dubbed a ‘World Cup cycle’, a mere 3.8 per cent of the time available is actually filled with the tournament itself.

Eddie Jones is just one high-profile coach who has made the mistake of placing all his eggs in this narrow basket. While in charge of England, he dismissed poor results in the lead-up to 2023 as lessons to be learned. Don’t worry, he professed often and loudly, none of these disastrous performances will be remembered in the long run. After losing his seventh match from 13 played in 2022, Jones was sacked a year out from his target.

Momentum is real. Losing can become a habit. Winning can become a habit. Every Test match involving nations should matter regardless of the wider context. That’s all true, but there are clear hierarchies in any sport. A 100m sprint final in the Annual Darius Dixon Memorial Invitational is obviously not as important as the headline race at the Olympics. Denying this basic fact requires a degree of dishonesty plucked from an Orwellian fever dream.

So why the double-think? A cynic might argue that Irish fans are simply bitter after yet another quarter-final exit. That they are doing everything they can to convince themselves that the tournament they’ve never won, the tournament they really crave most of all, somehow carries less significance because they want it to be true.

Peter O'Mahony and Josh Van der Flier of Ireland look dejected at full-time after their team's loss in the Rugby World Cup France 2023 Quarter Final match between Ireland and New Zealand at Stade de France on October 14, 2023 in Paris, France. (Photo by David Ramos - World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images)

Andy Farrell, Ireland’s coach, swatted aside notions that this year’s Six Nations is the first step on a new journey. “I don’t buy into the four-year cycle that tends to come around when World Cups are finished,” he said. True to his word, he named 34-year-old Peter O’Mahony as his captain for the foreseeable future. But beyond that? If you can’t see the lands over the horizon then maybe they don’t exist.

Having masterminded the most cohesive attack in international rugby, Farrell doesn’t need an education on the sport from a columnist. But the above rhetoric feels misguided. Wouldn’t it help to at least have half an eye on the game’s top prize? Would it hurt so much to consider the World Cup as the pot of gold at the end of a four-year rainbow? Would even acknowledging this send his team into a blind panic?

The Springboks’ last three World Cup-winning coaches - Jake White, Rassie Erasmus and Jaques Nienaber - all made the World Cup their priority when taking on the job. It helps that they were leading a rugby nation with the firepower to match actions to words, but this clear intention helped clarify any decisions they made.

Jacques Nienaber, the South Africa head coach looks on during a South Africa training session ahead of their Rugby World Cup France 2023 Final match against New Zealand at Stade des Fauvettes on October 25, 2023 in Domont, France. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

Bryan Habana, winner of the 2007 edition, tells the story of White’s first promise that a team that had just spluttered at the 2003 edition, and had won half of their games for the previous four years, could somehow conquer the world. Habana and the rest of the team met White’s bullishness with incredulity. But they drank the Kool-Aid. Even when the side lost 49-0 in Brisbane, or 45-26 in fortress Pretoria to the All Blacks, the guiding light of that original promise kept them on course.

This is why Steve Borthwick’s England is one of the most exciting prospects in Europe, which is a staggering sentence to write. Eight of the match-day 23 named for the game against Wales this weekend have less than 10 caps. This feels like a project that is building. Building to what? Maybe a proper tilt at a World Cup. Borthwick has been conscious not to make any assurances or reference the golden trophy, but it’s clear he has a long-term vision in mind.

In truth, so does everyone. Even Farrell and Ireland. Like it or not, the World Cup matters more than anything else in rugby. It just does. A British & Irish Lions series is a close second, but that is because it is likewise a rare event. Yearly contests will never carry the same weight. Scarcity has a quality on its own.

So, rather than downplay the World Cup, Irish supporters might hold their team to a higher standard and demand an end product to their sustained excellence. One should always find joy in what is a remarkable team operating at the highest level, but ask yourself, Irish fans, how many grand slams and away wins in France would you trade for a single World Cup?

South Africa has won just one Rugby Championship since 2012. Before that they were the least successful team in the Tri-Nations, collecting the wooden spoon 10 times from 16 attempts. Apart from a rare dynastic Bulls side that claimed three Super Rugby crowns from 2007-10, only the Stormers in the URC have won a cross-continent club competition in almost three decades of professionalism.

And yet, despite this record, the Springboks are the most dominant men’s Test side with four World Cups. What’s more, not a single South African supporter would trade any of those crowns for any other title. Victory is an intoxicating drug. But some highs are better than others.