There's only one answer to the Springboks' fly-half conundrum

Pundits and punters will describe decisions like this one as a ‘good headache to have’. They’ll say that a head coach should count his blessings that he has many options and not enough room for them all. And while there is truth in that, how many of those pundits and punters would want to trade places with Rassie Erasmus and select the starting fly-half for the Springboks?

South African rugby fans with long enough memories will know that this is uncharted territory. There’s always been a deluge of world-class loose forwards, titanic locks and indomitable props. Over the years there’s been no shortage of hard-running centres or speedy wingers. There have been plentiful stocks at hooker and scrum-half. But fly-half? Previous generations would have traded two open-side flankers for just one elite talent at first receiver.

Erasmus has three. Handre Pollard is a double World Cup champion and the only fly-half in the men’s game to be on the field from start to finish at consecutive winning finals. Manie Libbok is a maverick plucked from the fantasies of comic-book writers, a playmaker who unfurls no-look cross-field kicks as if they were routine. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, the new kid on the block, is fearless, dynamic and is patently oven-ready for the big stage.

But Erasmus has a dilemma on his hands. Because even though they’re all brilliant in their own way, and would be capable of steering the team throughout this next World Cup cycle, none of them tick every box. Pollard lacks spark. Libbok can’t be relied on to stack up points from the tee. Feinberg-Mngomezulu lacks Test experience and often tries to do too much on his own. There’s no Dan Carter equivalent knocking about in South African rugby and whoever gets the nod will shape the team around him. So, who should get the keys to rugby’s most destructive machine?

An obvious place to start is at the kicking tee. Studying the way the Springboks procured their two most recent World Cup crowns, as well as the British & Irish Lions series win in 2021, a clear formula for success becomes apparent. A reliable boot equals points equals wins equals titles. Since the start of the 2022/23 season - which will be the base for all the stats to come - one candidate emerges if we focus solely on percentages.

No, it’s not Pollard, who has slotted 84 per cent of his 169 attempts at goal, and nor is it Libbok whose 71 per cent from 266 shots at the poles is a glaring weakness in his game. Instead it’s Feinberg-Mngomezulu who adds points to the score from 92 per cent of his kicks. Whether or not his sample size of 39 attempts is large enough to close this case will be up for debate.

But goal kicking alone shouldn’t sway Erasmus’ decision. A new attacking ethos could reshape our thinking. No other team went wide as often as the Springboks over the July internationals. Runners in midfield as well as in the tram are cutting against the grain and offering options off either shoulder. At times it looked like a morass of limbs, like a twisted Hieronymus Bosch painting, but there is enough evidence to suggest that once it clicks the Springboks backline could cut teams to shreds.

Does this mean that Pollard, the more conservative of the three contenders, is out of the picture? The Leicester Tigers man averages 15.3 passes per game compared to Libbok’s 19.6. Feinberg-Mngomezulu’s average of 5.7 suggests that he likes to run the ball more than the others - more on that in a bit - but his lower score on this variable is also a consequence of him playing at full-back and inside centre.

So rather than look at the number of passes per game, let’s focus on some of the more captivating attributes on show. Across 80 minutes, Feinberg-Mngomezulu off-loads more (8.1), beats more defenders (2.1 which is more than double Pollard’s tally), makes more line-breaks (0.8) and has a higher gainline success (69%) than his rivals for the position. That he plays at 15 and 12 of course skews these numbers but he has shown a desire to continue that freewheeling game when asked to play fly-half for the Boks. Perhaps Erasmus might persuade him to tone down that attacking zeal but perhaps he might be the reason South Africa lean more into a restructured game-plan.

PARIS, FRANCE - OCTOBER 15: Manie Libbok of South Africa reacts during the Rugby World Cup France 2023 Quarter Final match between France and South Africa at Stade de France on October 15, 2023 in Paris, France. (Photo by Franco Arland/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images)

Libbok isn’t far behind, though, on some of the above scores and has the same gainline success as Pollard - 63% - which might come as a surprise given the perception concerning Libbok’s physicality. Libbok also tops the charts when it comes to tackle evasion with 47%, suggesting that he can ignite moves if given enough space, and, crucially for his cause, he kicks on average eight times per game, more than Pollard (7.5) and Feinberg-Mngomezulu (4.9) with a higher kick retention of 21%.

The Springboks have already started to adapt their kicking game by stationing forwards in positions where they can challenge in the air and by hanging wingers wider for cross-field kicks. Libbok’s spectacular try-assist against Scotland in the World Cup group stage was just an example of his potency in this regard. And the data shows that even with evolutions in attacking structures, the team that kicks more tends to win.

Not sure who to pick? You’re not alone, and aren’t you glad you don’t have to make the call? There is an argument to be made that Erasmus can have all three in the match-day 23 if he chooses to play Pollard or Feinberg-Mngomezulu at inside centre. This of course would mean dropping Damian de Allende, who is one of the in-form players in world rugby at present.

This would provide the Boks with another playmaker in the backline - no bad thing with Willie le Roux reaching the end of his career - but would eradicate that heft in midfield that de Allende or Andre Esterhuien provides. None of the three fly-half candidates have a tackle success rate above 75% and Feinberg-Mngomezulu is the only one who averages as much as one dominant tackle per game. It is unlikely that Erasmus would mess with a midfield that has contributed so much to his recent success.

To avoid sitting on the fence I’ll leave you with my personal pick. I firmly believe that Libbok’s overall game, his ability to balance structure with wizardry, and his efficiency when kicking out of hand means he has to start as many games until the World Cup in 2027. He has the potential to be South Africa’s most creative 10 of all time - if he isn’t already - and should be given the confidence to unleash himself upon the world.

I’d then have Feinberg-Mngomezulu coming off the bench with 23 on his back. With Damian Willemse the incumbent at 15, the Springboks potentially have the most versatile backline of all the World Cup contenders. If Grant Williams is the back-up scrum-half, South Africa can play a 6-2 with so much of the risk stripped out.

This of course leaves the double-world champion Pollard on the fringe at only 30 years old. But the fringe is not the wilderness and having his safe pair of hands in reserve is a luxury. However, if the Springboks are to truly evolve, they need to move away from pragmatism and place their faith in their mavericks.