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Wallabies' opportunity comes from smaller All Black forwards and unbalanced back row
The Wallabies are walking into the biggest rivalry any Wallaby faces in their career, the Bledisloe, and the sanctity of the rivalry deserves every ounce of passion the players can muster.
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It’s been a 22-year-long drought for the Wallabies, some of the current Wallabies had not even been born yet the last time the Wallabies hoisted the coveted cup.
It was a different era, the likes of George Gregan, John Eales, and Stephan Larkham were the beacons of our game, and win, lose, or draw, people were calling each other on Nokia phones to talk about the match.
This long-standing record and the gravity of what a single win against the All Blacks could mean for this new-look team, their supporters, and their future fortunes is not lost on this current group.
“The tide has to turn at some point, and we want to be the team and the individuals to do that,” said Wallabies prop Angus Bell in an interview with Channel Nine.
“We are just looking forward to going out there and competing… and putting out a performance that we can be proud of and the rugby fans in Australia can be proud of… we feel like we can challenge them (the All Blacks) around the park.”
Despite the positivity there must be some rational thought behind it.
The fact is, the tide does not ‘have to turn at some point’, but for all the chatter of the ‘necessity’ of overseas picks and a record walloping at the hands of Argentina, Bell is right about the team having the individuals to cause an upset.
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Joe Schmidt has a group of individuals who have experienced some level of success against their Kiwi rivals in this year’s Super Rugby Pacific.
The individuals must believe they can beat their opposite man and that mentality must start up front.
Now, if you were to pick a combined ANZAC side, there would be very few gold shirts amongst the black ones, but Australia does have talent across the park to make this a proper contest.
Angus Bell and Taniela Tupou are yet to reach the peak of their powers and they have an opportunity to put the New Zealanders under real pressure at scrum time.
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People forget that Tupou didn’t’ face the Springboks as he was mourning his late father, so the true power of the Wallabies scrum has not been tested nor realised.
In the second row, Nick Frost and Lukhan Salakaia-Loto if selected, are well equipped to deal with Scott Barrett and returning veteran Patrick Tuipulotu.
The locks have both height and weight on their opposite numbers.
The battle of the backrows will be crucial as the teams’ gameplans rely on their backrows executing their roles flawlessly.
All Blacks coach Scott Robinson has been fielding three fetching backrowers, he’s wanting to play with turnover ball and force opposition to overcommit to the rucks.
This tactic frustrated the Springboks as the three backrowers, along with hooker Cody Taylor, regularly got over the ball and forced a turnover or a penalty in their two games in South Africa.
For the Wallabies, the backrow is the glue in defence between the backs and forwards, and they are charged with bringing the punch in attack to alleviate pressure of an undersized backline and a propping stock lacking match fitness.
Whether it’s Fraser McReight who makes a return or Carlo Tizzano who retains the no.7 jersey, the job doesn’t change, make the tackles and menace at the ruck, it’s crucial to slow the All Blacks’ momentum.
Another aspect to the backrow battle is the imbalance in the All Blacks backrow, Robinson is fielding three opensides regularly and it must be said Ardie Savea has not been at his devastating best.
Although Wallace Sititi had a debut to remember in Cape Town, Robinson has been fond of stalwart Sam Cane and Ethan Blackadder assisting Savea and that combination gives the Wallabies a window of opportunity.
The Wallabies must acknowledge the smaller and more mobile All Blacks back row for what it is and channel their efforts into running into these players, robbing them off their pilfer opportunities and pin them in the rucks, or clear them well past the ruck.
The backline is where the contest will become more fraught for the Australians.
Cortez Ratima and Damien McKenzie are the in-form halves partners for the All Blacks but their form hasn’t been so dominant to keep a Wallabies pairing of Jake Gordon and Noah Lolesio out of the contest.
The Aussies are not as flashy as their Kiwi counterparts, but they do have the experience to control the game if they are afforded forward ascendency.
In the centres, the All Blacks have the upper hand in size, experience, and strike power, while the Wallabies are still trying to find some consistent form.
Whoever partners Len Ikitau must be a big communicator and be ready for the heavy traffic coming their way.
The battle of the back-three is truly a conundrum, no player, except perhaps Caleb Clarke, has had a dominant performance since the July Tests.
Mark Tele’a, Will Jordan, Sevu Reece, and Beauden Barrett have all had their moments and are all lethal, but it just hasn’t clicked.
Similarly for the Wallabies, Tom Wright, Max Jorgensen, Andrew Kellaway, and Marika Koroibete have all been kept quiet, unable to have any real influence over games consistently.
These muted performances will not do for a Bledisloe clash if the Wallabies are to have any chance of rocking the boat and bagging a win in either Test.
So where are the areas the Wallabies can look to attack the All Blacks?
“Upfront, a lot will be asked of the big ball carriers like Angus (Bell), (Rob) Valetini,” said Bernard Foley on Stan Sport on Monday night.
“The other area is probably the aerial contest, contestable kicks. If we can challenge the All Blacks in that area on Sevu Reece, maybe Beauden (Barrett), if we can put the kicks on them and nullify their running game and win the ball back, I think it can be a weapon for us.
Foley has come close to beating the New Zealanders as recently as 2022 and he could still feature in gold at some point in the future.
“I think the seam between the fourth and fifth defender which has been backrowers from New Zealand try to get very physical,” said former Wallaby and Stan Sport commentator Morgan Turinui on the Between Two Posts podcast.
“The seam out the back of that shape… I’d love to see a roving Marika Koroibete try and get in between maybe a Reiko Ioane and his backrower.”
The players have got a somewhat quieter and more measured self-belief than in previous years, which may come down to who their coach is, but nevertheless, there’s belief amongst the playing group and former players.
The recent history back to 2022 does not read well with scores being 23-20, 38-7, 40-14, 39-37, all to New Zealand.
But within this skewed ledger are both performances on both Australian and New Zealand soil which shows this special contest often has little regard for the world rankings.
The history of this contest is colossal, the respect between nations is immense, and the rugby played between them is always captivating.
Every Australian wants the tide to turn, the Wallabies players must believe they are the ones to turn it, and if an afternoon Bledisloe is not enough to rouse the passion of fans and players alike, then there’s much more than scorelines to worry about in the world of rugby.
At least have the quality to get the coaches name right especially if you're going to repeat it all through the article. Amateur hour plus disrespect
I'm a bit sad John. I thought we were going to get a nice statistical table on the relative physicality of the two packs or something.
There is a big misconception about New Zealand rugby's lack of size. They do, along with Australia, and the homelands of Pacifika people, have a lot of big rugby players, they just haven't been favoured by the All Blacks, or indeed with the likes of Will Skelton, neither NSW or the Wallabies, either.
A quick jump on all.rugby gives a quick look at last weeks teams
SA -------------------------- NZ
963 kg (120.38 kg) --- Pack weight (average) --- 939 kg (117.38 kg)
31 ans - --- Forwards average age ---- 28 ans
29 ans --- Backs average age --- 28 ans
ARG ------------------------ AUS
922 kg (115.25 kg) --- Pack weight (average) ---- 925 kg (115.63 kg)
28 ans ---- Forwards average age --- 25 ans
26 ans ---- Backs average age --- 26 ans
As you can see here, there might be a trend to say that the Wallabies will get more powerful with age, but you wouldn't think one would suggest a physical edge over the Abs at this point. Indeed, their edge comes from a completely different concept, dynamism. In players like Tupou, Bell, some say Frost, Rob, they have players that can edge their opposites. Taylor and Sami (Aumua hopefully) at hooker, Barrett on a good day, and Ardie (and his heir apparent) can provide it for the All Blacks, but Australia's game should definitely be about tempo and speed of play at their young age LSL seems to be thought of as perhaps a strong foil to that when needed, but I would honestly rate him below Patrick.
So I tihnk the pack is much closer to how you view the backline, so makes for a cohesive plan if Joe can get it right. I think the most telling stat for these two teams (haven't checked this mornigns announcement yet) would be in test caps, and it would be stark if Slipper was told he was no longer needed.
Use that youthful exuberance and try and get them confident. That Argentine side is a great, they put a record score on NZ in not as favourable conditions as well. Theyve just got to take that one on the chin, and like SBW says, come out swining for round 2. Remembering that no matter what, in this sport, this game, theyre going to still be standing by round 12 when the Lions come. There should be no fear here.
According to the All Balcks official website their starting pack of Williams, Taylor, Lomax, Vaii, Barrett, Sititi, Cane and Savea was 919kg.
Can is 103, Savea 99, and Sititi 113, hardly a hulking backrow, but yes, they are full of dynamism.
The thing which I think is interesting is that the Wallabies actually are trying to play a slower more conservative approach.
I don't speed for speed's sake will help them at the weekend, they actually want to slow the game down, otherwise the score will get ugly.
That's been the trap in recent years, they want to play "free-flowing" rugby but they can't sustain their own game models whilst doing that.
Keeping it tight, slow and controlled is the key.
As you note, the All Blacks are more dynamic, Sititi and Savea are great examples.
As for Tuipulotu vs Salakaia-Loto, Tuipulotu has been more consistent and has done his basics better, but they are both experienced operators.
I suppose hope always springs eternal, but it is extraordinarily difficult to imagine Australia coming within 20 points of the All Blacks in Sydney and 30 points when they play the second game in NZ.
I don't think it will be anywhere near that bad. There is nothing in all of Super Rugby which would suggest a beating this bad.
The tide’s turning alright. Low tide.
Scott Robinson ? Really ,,,
Often just refer to him as Razor 😅
Apologies for the typo. Thanks for keeping me honest.
Ethan Blackadder must come back in, he is one our best. It is the selection of the other loosies that is the problem. The fact Ardie is a bit below his best is another factor as the article points out. Why people want Beauden returned to fullback I cannot understand.
This is interesting GP, are you a fan of B Barrett at 10?
Also, who is your pick for the AB's backrow?
To say that the Wallabies scrum will hold up at all after 20 minutes is asking a lot.
Also who cares if the Wallabies scrum is at full power? The EdG/TW, CT/AA, TL/PT. That is the best, most consistent front row in the world.
Also, the All Blacks are NOT smaller than the Wallabies. Two 140 kg props, not to mention that Ethan Blackadder is massive. Cortez Ratima isn't even small. Cannot believe there is even a discussion about the Wallabies forwards being better than All Blacks forwards man for man.
The All Blacks forwards are the best and most cohesive forwards unit in the world right now, followed closely by South Africa and then Ireland/England/Argentina. The Fijians have better forwards than the Wallabies.
I think this sentence:
"Now, if you were to pick a combined ANZAC side, there would be very few gold shirts amongst the black ones, but Australia does have talent across the park to make this a proper contest."
... Suggests I don't think the Wallabies players are better than the ABs ones.
Also, I didn't say all forwards were bigger, I said Lukhan and Frost are bigger than Vaii and Tuipulotu, which according to online bios is correct, surprising perhaps but correct nonetheless.
Also, as for you claim that Blackadder is massive, he's 111kg and 190cm. Shorter and lighter than Valetini and Wilson.
This is even more true for Cane and Savea.
I said nothing about the backs? Did you read the article or just the headline?
I also disagree about the cohesive nature of the forwards, Ireland and France are ahead.
As for the Fiji claim, I will just leave that there.
The tide won’t turn until the wallabies can hold up a scrum with bell and Toupou off and the poor defence in the outside backs is corrected.
That is largely down to Schmidts poor coaching and team selection. Scott Sio scrummed well for Exeter last year and Jermaine Ainsley is playing well for Lyon. He’s also wasted Pone who is the best running prop in the game but whose scrummaging is on the same level as AA and Nongoorr. Latu is also a good scrummager and playing well at La Rochelle with fewer penalties.
Similar story at lock with Skelton, Philip, the Arnold’s and even Kane Douglas.
Samu also had a good run. He is better than McReight but not as good in D as Tazanno.
Centres you have Kerevi and Hodge who can also play 15 and has one of the biggest boots in the game.
Team looks much better with them in. There are others as well. Schmidt is delusional if he thinks he can do well with domestic players and he has failed to develop good links with OS clubs like the boks did when they were in the same boat.
I seriously hope Kailea together with Brandon Paenga Amosa can bring some stability to allow AAA to find some form because he has been lacking impact.