Where the Chiefs have the biggest edge over the Crusaders

Choosing a winner of the Super Rugby final is not a straightforward task. The Chiefs have set the benchmark in 2023 by defeating every team and scoring the most and conceding the least points in the round-robin.

Perennial winners the Crusaders have scored ten more tries and their semi-final demolition of the Blues was a ruthless example of peaking at the right time.

While the Chiefs fought torridly to overcome stubborn Australian opponents in the quarters and semis, the Crusaders soared against the unpredictable Fijian Dura and embarrassed the Blues.

The build-up will be an overload of banal cliches about “X Factor,” “winning big moments,” “physicality” and “gain line.” Here is another cliche or truism. The team that finishes strongest will likely win the match.

Perhaps the biggest factor in the Chiefs success in 2023 has been the depth, balance, explosiveness, versatility, and clinical execution of their bench.

In the last quarter of games this season, the Chiefs have outscored opponents 151-71. They have only conceded 11 tries in 320 minutes in this period while holding five opponents scoreless in 16 games.

The Chiefs outscored the Reds 10-7 and the Brumbies 10-0 in the past fortnight to tip tense tussles in their favour. In their victories against the Crusaders, the Chiefs outscored the reigning champions 17-0 and 15-7 in the last 20 minutes.

The Chiefs bench on Saturday was Tyrone Thompson, Ollie Norris, John Ryan, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Pita Gus Sowakula, Cortez Ratima, Josh Ioane, and Rameka Poihipi.

That’s three Maori All Blacks, two All Blacks, and an Irish international even before mentioning Ah Kuoi whose presence and hustle is most conspicuous, and youngster Ratima whose running game at halfback has been a revelation.

Thompson and Sowakula are all power and combined late to sink the Crusaders in Hamilton on April 29. Sowakula also scored the last try against the Reds on June 10. Ioane and Poihipi cover multiple positions in the backline with the bonus of Ioane’s goal-kicking.

Poihipi might not be a world-beater, but he is a model of consistency who rarely lets his side down. In 2021 he scored a late try against the Crusaders to win a game.  The enigmatic Ioane can be dazzling at his best.

The Crusaders haven’t finished games as strongly in 2023 as they have done in the past. While they have outscored opponents 142-104 in the last 20 minutes, they have only won the last quarter eight times outright in 16 games.

Their bench on Friday night was Brodie McAlister, Kershawl Sykes-Martin, Reuben O’Neill, Dominic Gardiner, Corey Kellow, Willi Heinz, Fergus Burke, and Chay Fihaki.

With the result settled by halftime ‘impact’ wasn’t essential but could this bench change a game like the Chiefs reserves can?

On his last legs, Heinz is the only internationally capped player. Sykes-Martin and O’Neill are ring-ins while Gardiner, Kellow, Burke, and Fihaki are youngsters yet to establish themselves fully at this level.

Prior to the semi the Crusaders had used 48 players with a dozen front-liners, including eight All Blacks, unavailable for selection for the Blues fixture. There is no doubt the bench would be different with a full squad.

Still, it would be naive to discount the Crusaders' ability to storm home with a wet sail or at least grind out a victory. So often the Crusaders find an extra level against the odds.

Since 2018 the Crusaders have won a dozen finals matches and have not once been outscored in the last quarter.

Under Scott Robertson, the Crusaders have won 97 matches. On 70 occasions they have won the last 20 minutes outright and 14 times earned parity. Of the 17 matches the Crusaders have lost since 2017 they have been outscored in the last quarter 13 times.

Recent Crusaders history is littered with improbable comebacks. In 2017 Mitchell Hunt won games against the Reds and Highlanders with late heroics something he never looked like achieving in Dunedin. In 2018 the Crusaders beat the Waratahs from 0-29 down. In 2020 the Crusaders flipped a 17-point deficit against the Blues. David Havili kicked a drop goal in extra time to break Hurricanes hearts in 2021. This season the Crusaders were in a pickle against the Rebels in Melbourne but powered home with a 24-3 last quarter.

To beat the Crusaders, you must go the distance. The Chiefs are better equipped than any team to do that but historically the Crusaders are the greatest finishers.

Most Wins by New Zealand Teams Since 2017

Crusaders - 97

Hurricanes - 76

Chiefs - 70

Blues - 62

Highlanders - 48