Why aren't New Zealand's mighty teams scoring like they used to?

It is almost three years since the Black Ferns hoisted the Women’s World Cup for a sixth time in nine attempts, with a nail-biting 34-31 victory over favourites England at Eden Park. The game went down to the wire, with a last-ditch lineout steal by Joanah Ngan-Woo on the New Zealand goal-line snatching the cup away from the Red Roses when they could taste the ichor of triumph.

It was one of the iconic rugby moments in any version of the game, men’s or women’s. It also mattered as much, if not more than any other rugby victory to one of the most iconic coaches of the professional era, Sir Wayne Smith. Immediately after the game, he said: “To see Eden Park packed for the Black Ferns, I never thought I would see that in 100 years.

“That was the most phenomenal moment of my career, listening to ‘Black Ferns, Black Ferns, Black Ferns’ at Eden Park.

“This will go down as one of the great experiences of my life.”

Portia Woodman-Wickliffe, Wayne Smith and Sarah Hirini celebrate following the Black Ferns' World Cup win (Photo by World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images)

Even after he had reflected and written about it in his autobiography Smithy: Endless Winters and the Spring of ’22, the memory was still very much vivid and gleaming, undimmed by the passage of time. The Black Ferns became the ultimate expression of a team coached by ‘the Professor’, playing XVs essentially in the same way you would approach a game of sevens.

“I grew to love and admire the attitude of those women, w?hine toa,” Smith said. “They had a thirst for knowledge.

“We just went into [the World Cup] with the idea to have fun. They work for a living most of them, they work hard to get there and it is a struggle. For them, it is a joy to play at that level.

“I just wanted to use everything I ever wanted to do in my whole career and put it into the game. That meant attacking [at] every opportunity we got, instead of kicking.

“Whilst it nearly cost us the World Cup, it was my aim. To play an exciting game in front of 40,000 people [in the final], win or lose. I was so proud of them.’’

England were comfortable winners when the Black Ferns arrived in London earlier this month (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

At the time the Red Roses were two whole years ahead of everyone else in the game. The RFU had awarded full-time professional contracts to 28 of its top players at the start of 2019, building on the inaugural success of Premiership Women’s Rugby established two years previously.

By 2023, the number of full-time contracts had increased to 32 with a further six transitional contracts reserved for emerging talents. Those enhanced three-year deals covered salaries, match fees and 2025 World Cup arrangements, commercial and community engagement initiatives and even included maternity leave for forwards Abbie Ward and Vicki Cornborough, underneath an ever-wider and more supportive financial umbrella.

Players are also part of a revenue-sharing agreement, if or when business targets for the women’s game are exceeded. The Red Roses are now coached by a man who has succeeded at the highest level of the men’s game, John Mitchell. Nothing has been left to chance.

Against that background, Smithy’s 2021 Black Ferns look like the last stand of rugby romance against the cold cutting edge of economic reality. The 2021 World Cup final was the spectacularly tasty meat in a sandwich of Red Rose success and it was the Roses’ only loss in 47 matches.

England had already beaten New Zealand handsomely in two matches before the tournament started – a 43-12 defeat at Exeter and then a 56-15 rout at Smithy’s old haunt, Franklin’s Gardens in Northampton. They have gone on to win the two games since, 33-12 at Mount Smart Stadium in Auckland to claim the inaugural WVX1 title in 2023, and 24-12 at the newly-christened Allianz Stadium, otherwise know as the old cabbage patch at Twickenham, only a fortnight ago.

With the second instalment of WXV imminent, the question of whether romance has any safe corner left in the soul of rugby has become an urgent one. Neither the All Blacks nor the Black Ferns are currently outscoring their opponents on try count, as they have done historically.

The WXV is one tournament where the women’s game showing the way to the men. The first men’s Nations League does not kick off until 2026 and it only has one tier of competition, where the women have three: WXV1 [played in Canada] features the top three sides from the 2024 Women's Six Nations [England, France and Ireland], plus their equivalents from the Pacific Four Series [Canada, New Zealand and the United States]. WXV2 in South Africa contains Scotland, Wales and Italy from the north plus South Africa, Australia and Japan. Meanwhile WXV3 is located in Dubai, and composed of Spain, Madagascar, Fiji, Hong Kong, the Netherlands and Samoa.

The BBC will stream or broadcast all games in the top two tournaments free-to-air, with RugbyPass TV showing all of the WXV3 games live. But it is the buzz around the rivalry between the Red Roses and Black Ferns which is creating the real edge at the top of the women’s game.

As New Zealand number eight Liana Mikaele-Tu’u revealed before the 24-12 defeat at Twickenham: “We have been preparing for this game since the start of the year. We know it’s a big one and it’s definitely going to be one that tests us because a lot of us still feel the hurt from the game last year [at Mount Smart] facing them. So, I think that’s definitely been fuel every time we’ve gone out to train.”

Assistant coach Steve Jackson was even more specific in his comments about what the Black Ferns needed to do, and how ‘professorial’-style romance could still be productive against the cold steel of a well-conditioned, well-drilled defensive outfit.

“We think we’ll probably get one or two or three opportunities [in the match] and we’ve got to make sure that we take them,” he said.

One of the best KPIs for concrete improvement in the professional era is how quickly the scramble defence can shut down an attack once a break has been made. Time was, when a New Zealand break resulted automatically in a New Zealand try, but the recent men’s game against Australia in Sydney and the women’s encounter at Twickenham suggested this is no longer the case.

The early stages of the latter match underlined the lethal threat of Alesha Leti l’iga on the Kiwi right wing.

There is great interplay between Leti l’iga and number 13 Sylvia Brunt down the right, but within a few phases the England defence had forced play back outside their own 22, with the momentum leading to a turnover.

On the second occasion the Kiwi flyer received the ball in space, the turnover was even more immediate.

Leti l’iga skins two defenders down the sideline after New Zealand has won prime turnover ball at the ruck, but there are three Red Roses in and around the tackle when it is finally made, with the right wing having to make multiple movements on the deck to avoid a counter-pilfer by Ellie Kildunne. Penalty England.

Smithy would have been hugging himself with pleasure as the Black Ferns counter-attack from a position deep inside their own 22, but the rose-tinted glasses were abruptly ripped off by England’s speed at regrouping on the next phase in defence.

It’s the classic World Cup prescription from the Professor’s playbook: a long break from deep down the left, followed by a quick cross-kick to the other side, towards the most dangerous Black Fern attacker, stretching the defence to an absolute limit. But there are already 13 Englishwomen back on their feet and in line before the ball has been passed from the base of the ruck, and the one-on-one in space is still not enough for Leti l’iga to beat Kildunne and convert opportunity into try.

Even when the Kiwis derived a clear advantage from a line break, they could not make it pay on the scoreboard.

Another blistering bust by the Kiwi speedster is stopped by an illegal ‘seatbelt’ tackle over the shoulder by Zoe Aldcroft, which earns the England second row 10 minutes in the sin-bin. But the four players closest to Leti l’iga after she goes to ground are all wearing white jerseys, and England went on to win the penalty period 7-0 in any case, moving the Red Roses out to a 24-0 lead with half an hour left to play.

It was not Aldcroft’s last tackle in cover on a New Zealand wing.

Once again England’s first line is broken, only for an English lock to haul down one of the greatest finishers of modern times, Ruby Tui, in scramble defence. On this occasion the Black Ferns did convert the try after another four phases of attack, but by then it was too little, too late.

Is the romance of the professional game dying on its feet? Smith not only prevailed from a fairytale ending in 2022, he won playing the kind of footy he loved to coach.

Since then, things have returned to professional normality, with England’s fitness values and appetite for defence overcoming New Zealand’s desire to attack from the end of the world. Replace England in the women’s game with South Africa in the men’s, and the truth remains the same. What worked for New Zealand once, now no longer seems to achieve the same results. The question keeps getting asked, but without an answer in the all-black.