How Rassie Erasmus' risky plan could backfire

As if we didn’t already know, none of us can predict what Rassie Erasmus is going to do next. Because not even the best and brightest rugby minds outside of the Springboks camp could have foreseen this match-day 23 for South Africa’s first assignment of the Autumn Nations Series.

Where to start? How about where most Springboks teams grab headlines. A seven-one split on the bench is a bold move. But is it wise? Is it necessary? Is it the right call for Scotland? As with all things in elite sport, only the result will prove conclusive but it does feel like Erasmus is taking a gamble he didn’t need to take.

Of course, the cluster of forwards are immense and it’s hard not to feel that Scotland will need at least a two-score lead with 15 minutes left on the clock if they have any chance of winning. Because the fresh legs of World Cup winners RG Snyman, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Jasper Wiese and Siya Kolisi entering the scene in the closing act looks like it could be the decisive play from the Boks management.

But that cohort means there’s only room on the bench for a single back and Grant Williams must now carry a massive weight on his shoulders. He has electric pace and is robust in contact, but that does not make him a bonafide winger. Erasmus will hope that his two starters in the trams can fulfil their 80-minute quota.

Which won’t be an easy task given the way Scotland might look to play. The omission of the incumbents Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse could be a sign that Erasmus has one eye on the England Test a week later (more on that in a bit) but there is logic there. Canan Moodie and Makazole Mapimpi are taller than their compatriots and more of a threat in the air. There’s been plenty of chat about the efficiency of Duhan van der Merwer under the high ball and perhaps Erasmus has opted to nullify this outlet. Moodie and Mapimpi could spend most of the game looking up and leaping skyward. One misplaced step when they land could unravel the whole operation.

A solitary back among the replacements is also asking a lot of 35-year-old Willie le Roux who will likely have to go the distance himself. There is every chance he shines on Saturday, whether at first receiver or stitching the final threads on a counter-attack from broken play. But if he goes down, or runs out of gas, a few tweaks will be required.

Moodie could shift to No 15 with Williams deputising on the wing. But what if Handre Pollard twists an ankle? Le Roux would then have to slot in at fly-half. These are the risks a coach takes when going down the seven-one route.

A greater concern lies in the midfield. Andre Esterhuizen would walk into most Test teams around the world. He’d start immediately for England, Australia and Wales. But because Damian de Allende is also South African, Esterhuizen only has 18 Test caps. He made headlines this week for comments that have been interpreted as barbs directed at the South African-born Scots. Every Scottish tackler or ball carrier will want to leave their mark when running down the inside centre's channel.

Outside of him is Lukhanyo Am, one of the most naturally gifted ballers to ever pull on the green and gold. But his fitness has been a concern and he’s played a full 80 minutes just three times this year. Should he go down, Erasmus will have to shuffle his cards.

Maybe Pollard would then move to midfield with le Roux occupying the No 10 role. Or maybe Moodie would shift to centre with Williams prowling the wing. Or maybe Kwagga Smith, on the occasion of his 50th appearance for his country, could do a job in the backline.

No decent rugby fan takes pleasure in the sight of a player copping an injury but this really does seem like Scotland’s best hope of a first win over the Boks since 2010. Well, that and their mobile back row bossing the breakdown to provide Finn Russell with plenty of front-foot ball.

Here at least we can clearly see what Erasmus is playing at. His own back row is full of energy with every member the sort of who plays towards the ball. Smith and Elrigh Louw might on occasion swap their duties between flank and No 8 which could allow Louw to carry more into contact - and off restarts - and give Smith licence to jackal. And with Wiese and du Toit adding heft later on, the starting triumvirate will be given licence to empty their tanks.

So there are kernels of sense in the soup of chaos that Erasmus has served up. To return to an earlier question, was all this necessary? That is a resounding yes if we’re led to believe that the game against England at Twickenham is the most important scalp on offer over this European tour. Apart from Eben Etzebeth, Bongi Mbonambi, Ox Nche and Pollard, none of the other starters will likely take the field at the opening whistle next week. And with plenty of depth in the tight five, and with Manie Libbok not included at all for the Murrayfield clash, it wouldn’t be a shock if the entire XV is altered before the six-day turnaround.

Guessing why Erasmus does anything is a fool’s game. Even Jean de Villiers, Schalk Burger and Nick Mallett, who collectively have forgotten more about the sport than most of us will ever know, said on a recent episode of the Boks Office that looking into the Boks’ coach’s mind was impossible.

So a better question to ask is this: will this much-changed team be enough to beat Scotland. That's another resounding yes. And not only will they do it, I think they’ll do it rather comfortably. Barring an injury to a key member of the backline, Scotland should remain at least within touching distance before the heavies come on to act as steamrollers. This is what you get when you’re the coach of South Africa. You can shock just about everyone else in the world with outrageous selections and still have enough firepower to beat the seventh-best team in the world on their own patch.