Would Scotland have won if Finn Russell was playing?

For 79 minutes no one missed their exes. Ollie Smith was tearing up the Murrayfield turf from fullback. Blair Kinghorn was running the show at flyhalf. Both had scored tries in Jamie Ritchie’s first Test as Scotland’s captain. They were behind on the scoreboard but had just won a very kickable penalty with little time left on the clock.

Maybe this Autumn fling would manifest into something more serious. Perhaps you-know-who one and who-know-who two would disappear from memory, at least in the short term while Scottish rugby finds itself again. Maybe the new skipper and the new 10 and the new 15 would usher in a golden era. Maybe climate change is reversable. Maybe the housing crisis really does have a workable solution.

Then Kinghorn scuffed his shot at goal. As the ball sailed into the Edinburgh night the Murrayfield faithful erupted in cheer, believing it had sailed through the sticks. When the assistant referees kept their flags at their sides a rumbling groan rippled round the stadium. As it did so it was hard not to think of Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg.

That’s the thing about exes. You miss them at your lowest. And this was a low for Scotland. It ended a run of three consecutive wins against Australia, who fielded a depleted team and currently occupy ninth spot on World Rugby’s rankings. The home side was the better team and should have been out of sight despite the disjointed nature of the contest.

Compounding matters, one of the exes was doing the equivalent of posting Instagram stories of themselves at a cocktail party surrounded by beautiful people you just know they’re sleeping with. Russell’s points haul of 23 in Racing's 43-38 win over Brive included a try assist. Crucially, he was successful from nine out of ten attempts from the tee.

Which leads us to the obvious question: would Scotland have won the game if Russell was playing? It’s a little complicated.

Russell is no Morne Steyn. He’s a fine goal kicker but you wouldn’t put the farm on him bisecting the poles with every swing of his boot. Last year in Scottish colours he slotted 74 percent of his attempts at goal. He’s a maverick and a game changer, a man who operates on a different plain to the rest of his peers. But let’s resist romanticising a talented but flawed player just because another man has made a mistake.

Finn Russell is at the heart of a star-studded Racing team where there is an expectation to entertain (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

Besides, would Russell have been able to score the same try that Kinghorn registered? After Australia’s Bernard Foley fumbled the ball in contact, Scotland’s 10 hoofed it up field and ran after it, unfurling his long limbs as he blitzed past those in gold and green. He kicked it again, maintaining perfect control of it as if he were a fleet footed winger wearing the blue of Rangers. Without breaking stride he gathered it again after a kind bounce and dotted down on the slide, completed a sensational solo effort.

I’d argue that Russell doesn’t get anywhere close to doing that. He just doesn't have the pace. That doesn't mean Scotland wouldn't have scored a different sort of try. A rugby match is a long, drawn out thing, and changing one player for another immediately sets in motion a completely different chain of events.

There might be an alternate dimension where Russell and Gregor Townsend are best friends and the mercurial playmaker tore the Wallabies to shreds. Or maybe he too choked on the pressure of a final kick. Or maybe he ate a dodgy pie before the match and missed it with illness. The point is we can’t deal in hypotheticals and instead must analyse what we can empirically observe. On the evidence before us Scotland won’t miss the popular pivot as much some might’ve thought.

Besides his show stopping individual try, Kinghorn was brilliant and easily the best backline player on the park. His delayed pop pass of the shoulder for the onrushing Smith was majestic and opened the space for the 22-year-old fullback to score on his home debut. Had Russell pulled off a similar assist we’d already be inundated with memes and replays of the act.

There was more to Kinghorn’s game. He made 33 metres from seven carries and broke two tackles. He kicked well out of hand and found touch five metres from the Australian line with a wonderful raking punt off the outside of his right boot. He also made 92% of his 11 tackle attempts.

This is not an overextended effort to talk down Russell or inflate Kinghorn’s contribution. The former is a one of those players that creates rugby fans and I’d dearly love to see him return to the fold. The latter is a converted fullback who made two costly errors that ultimately proved decisive on the night - the other being a misplaced floated pass to Ritchie in space, a pass that some fans on social media have suggested would have been completed had Russell flung it wide.

Instead, the point of this piece is to suggest we allow Kinghorn the opportunity the grow into the role, to redeem himself, to put the disappointment behind him. He’ll be gutted by his shanked penalty kick. Townsend and Ritchie said as much in their post-match presser. But let us not judge a player by one act alone.

Next week Scotland host Fiji which should provide Kinghorn with more time on the ball. Then comes New Zealand and a test of his skills when he has little of it. Finally, the Argentinians come to town and Scotland will be desperate for revenge after their series loss away in summer. That game will place Kinghorn under pressure and it will be interesting to see how he gets on.

Russell is in France, living his best life, making the rest of us wonder if this really is goodbye or we’re simply taking a break. I’m inclined to think this is temporary. In the meantime a more than capable replacement has the No 10 jersey. Let’s give this new relationship a chance before we slide back into Russell’s DMs.