WXV: World Cup tickets and silverware up for grabs in final round

Following two rounds of intense action, it all comes down to this.

Nine teams across the three levels of WXV remain in the hunt for their respective titles, while six tickets to Women’s Rugby World Cup 2025 will be booked by the time the lights are turned off at BC Place, Athlone Sports Stadium and The Sevens Stadium.

With teams at the bottom of the three levels scrapping for vital points as well, it would be easy to lose track of the task facing each of the 18 teams involved.

Fortunately, though, we have submerged ourselves in the various permutations affecting WXV 1, WXV 2 and WXV 3 so you don’t have to.

WXV 1

Whoever wins Saturday’s final match between Canada and England at BC Place will be crowned WXV 1 2024 champions.

However, England only need a draw to retain the title they won in New Zealand 11 months ago. That is because they head into round three one point ahead of the hosts and crucially possess a better points difference.

Any of the remaining four teams could finish the weekend bottom of the top level.

Despite impressing in patches against both England and France, USA are yet to register a point and will start round three in sixth place.

Should they beat Ireland on Friday with a bonus point, while denying their opponents one, however, they will be guaranteed to finish at least fifth.

Ireland need only one point against the Women’s Eagles to avoid the wooden spoon, the same equation facing France against New Zealand.

The Women’s Six Nations sides can each finish as high as second depending on the result of the Canada-England match.

Fifth-place New Zealand can finish no higher than third and need to beat Les Bleues and hope that Ireland lose to USA to have a chance of achieving that.

Should the Black Ferns lose to France on Saturday then they would finish bottom of the standings if USA have already beaten Ireland in the opening match of the round.

WXV 2

Three teams, including hosts South Africa, head into the final round of WXV 2 2024 with hope of ending the weekend as champions.

Pace-setters Australia and defending champions Scotland are the most likely winners of the second level and face each other in the final match of round three – by which time they will know exactly what they need to do to claim the title.

Regardless of the Springbok Women result against Italy, the Wallaroos will finish top of the standings as long as they avoid defeat on Saturday. That is because a draw would take them to at least 12 points, which is the most South Africa can get to, and they would edge the home side on the head-to-head rule.

However, if Scotland beat Australia with a bonus point, then they would be guaranteed to retain the title as that would leave them on 13 points.

Should Bryan Easson’s side win without a bonus point and finish level on points with Australia, they would finish top on the head-to-head rule.

To give themselves hope of winning the tournament, the Springbok Women must beat Italy with a bonus point in the penultimate game of round three.

That would open the possibility of them finishing level on 12 points with either or both of the teams currently above them.

South Africa would have a chance of topping the pile if they are level with Scotland or both Scotland and Australia, as the champions would be decided by points difference.

However, in either scenario the hosts would have to make up significant ground. The Springbok Women’s points difference is currently zero, while Scotland’s is +25 and Australia’s +39.

In terms of the race for Women’s RWC 2025 qualification, the four non-qualified teams in WXV 2 – Australia, Scotland, Italy and Wales – will confirm their tickets to England at the completion of their matches.

Italy cannot finish the tournament any lower than fifth because the two teams beneath them in the current standings, Japan and Wales, play each other on Friday.

Japan only need to avoid defeat in the opening match of round three to remain in fifth, while Wales must win to haul themselves off the bottom.

WXV 3

Spain head into the final round knowing that any type of win against Fiji will be good enough to secure the WXV 3 title and a ticket to Women’s RWC 2025.

If Samoa fail to beat Madagascar on Friday, then a draw would be enough for Las Leonas to achieve both of those too and there is a scenario in which they can lose and still finish top of the standings as long as they secure at least one bonus point.

Should Spain – who need two points to be absolutely sure of their place at England 2025 – fail to beat Fijiana in the final match of round three in Dubai, then a bonus-point victory for Samoa against Madagascar would secure the title for Manusina.

Either way, a win at The Sevens Stadium on Friday will guarantee Samoa’s return to the World Cup for the first time since 2014.

Fiji, who have already qualified for the World Cup, can still claim the WXV 3 crown but they must beat Spain with a bonus point, while denying Las Leonas more than one of their own, and hope Samoa fail to beat Madagascar.

Hong Kong China need to beat the Netherlands with a bonus point in the penultimate match to have any chance of finishing top of the standings.

Should they do that, they would still need Samoa to fail to beat Madagascar and for Fiji to win against Spain without a bonus point. If Spain and Hong Kong China finish level on points the title would be decided on points difference, but the former’s is +103 while the latter’s is -4.

It is a similar story in relation to World Cup qualification as Hong Kong China start the weekend two points adrift of Samoa and four behind Spain and need to overhaul one to secure one of the two remaining tickets.

The Netherlands’ hopes, while still mathematically possible, are even more remote. The Dutch must beat Hong Kong China with a bonus point and hope Manusina get nothing from their match against Madagascar.

Even then, the Netherlands would need to make up a 49-point deficit in points difference to climb above Samoa.

Any victory against Hong Kong China would be enough to ensure the Dutch don’t finish bottom in WXV 3, though.

Madagascar, who are currently pointless, need to beat Samoa to have any hope of avoiding the wooden spoon.